NFL Week 8 Picks

How could the league give these fans a bye on Halloween weekend?
Someone in the league office needs to pay for this.

For as bad as the late games were last week, they are that good today.   After 4:00pm, we still have Pats-Steelers, a do-or-die game for the Eagles, and a possible chance of Tebowing.  I can't wait. 

Last week: 6-7, 5-8 Against the Spread (ATS)

Season: 65-38, 47-50-6 ATS

Colts at Titans - Chris Johnson, when you have to say that it's not your fault, it's probably your fault.  Tennessee is a couple losses away from the Jake Locker era.

Pick - Titans

ATS - Colts (+9)

Jaguars at Texans - I have two hard rules when I'm making suicide pool picks.  Never look ahead to next week, and never pick the favorite of the Houston-Jacksonville game.

Pick - Texans

ATS - Jaguars (+9.5) 

Vikings at Panthers - Cam Newton's second rookie QB duel of the season (he beat Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars earlier this year) should be a good one.  I liked what I saw from Christian Ponder last week.

Pick - Panthers

ATS - Panthers (-3.5)

Chasing Records: Jared Allen and 22.5 Sacks

Does Jared Allen only raise one arm if he's dancing for a half-sack?

NFL teams are throwing more than ever before, and that has put some passing records at risk.  The flip side is that defenders are getting more chances to sack the quarterback, and no player has taken more advantage of that this season than Jared Allen.

Seven games into the season, Allen has 11.5 sacks, which puts him well on pace to break Michael Strahan's record of 22.5.*  In fact, only four players in NFL history have had as many sacks in their first seven games as Allen has. 

*Ok, Brett Favre laid down to give Strahan the record.  I may be a die-hard Giant fan, but I'm not delusional.  Moving on...

Breaking Down T.O.'s Options...Or Lack Thereof

If healthy, Terrell Owens can help some teams.  But will any want him to?

Earlier today, Terrell Owens conducted a media workout to show NFL teams that he's healthy and ready to return to the field.  Say what you want about his head, but I haven't seen any player take better care of his body than T.O. does.  In 2004, he famously returned from a broken leg in six weeks to play in the Super Bowl, and now he is reportedly healthy only six months after he tore his ACL.  You can't deny his commitment to his craft.

On Friday evening, I heard Willie McGinest and Steve Mariucci discuss T.O.'s landing spot on NFL Network.  McGinest proclaimed "we all know that Terrell Owens is going to a good caliber team that is already making the playoffs."  Do we really?

In the last two seasons, Owens' locker room reputation has kept him off so many teams' lists, he was relegated to signing with the Bills and Bengals.  Despite some respectable individual numbers (always his specialty), T.O.'s contributions didn't help those teams avoid a combined 10-22 record.  Owens didn't reach 1,000 yards in either season, and there's little reason to believe that his numbers will improve coming off a major knee injury at the age of 37.  And if his pride becomes a factor, Owens might price himself out for whatever team does decide to kick his tires.  He made $2.7 million in Cincinnati last year, but teams may offer him half that much now.

As for possible suitors, the landing spots for Owens are limited:

Chasing Records: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and 5,084 Passing Yards

Most people, including even Dan Marino himself, are taking it for granted that his
record will be broken this season.  It may, but not by the quarterback you might expect.

Over the next couple of weeks, I'll take a look at some of the NFL records that are threatened this year, and predict whether they'll be broken.

Of all the individual single-season records in football, the most well-known one might be Dan Marino's 5,084 passing yards in 1984.  In the 27 years since, rules have been altered to help quarterbacks and offenses have been streamlined, but no one has been able to match Marino's mark.

However, after a historic September for passing, many have taken it for granted that this will be the year that Marino's record falls.  After three weeks, Tom Brady was on pace for 7,000 yards.  A mere two weeks ago, seven quarterbacks were within striking distance of the record.  Even Marino has resigned himself to the probability that someone will break his mark.  

But let's not jump to conclusions.  This isn't the first time someone has had the record in their sights after Week 7.  Nine times since 1984, a player has been on pace to surpass 5,084 at this point in the season.  Joe Montana, Drew Bledsoe, and Steve Young all challenged the mark in the '90s, but they each faded as the weather grew frostier.  In 2000, Kurt Warner was further along than Brady is now, but he suffered an injury and missed five games.  You may remember that Philip Rivers looked in good position to set the record last year, but some tough division matchups and a 185-yard effort in Indianapolis doomed his chances.

Tim Tebow, John Elway, and the Mastery of the Two-Minute Drill

The Drive, an improbable feat at the time, would be considered commonplace in today's NFL.

There were plenty of good games and powerful statements from contenders yesterday, but the big story you're hearing around the watercooler today is the 1-4 Broncos' comeback win over the 0-5 Dolphins. Such is the polarizing intrigue surrounding Tim Tebow.

I was amazed by what I saw from Tebow in those last five minutes, but not for the reasons you'd think.  (No LeBron, I don't believe throwing for 161 yards to narrowly beat an 0-5 team proves you are a "winner.")  Watching an inexperienced and inaccurate quarterback erase a 15 point deficit in five minutes was just the latest example of how coaches and players have mastered the most exciting of football feats: the two-minute drill.

KID Week 7 Power Rankings

Each year, eleven of my best friends and I participate in a keeper fantasy football league, dubbed "Keeper? I Don't Even Like Her!" (KID, for short).  These power rankings are for them.

Not a lot of time to do some in-depth analysis this week, so I'm simply going to give my thoughts on where each of your teams stand through the halfway point of the fantasy regular season.

1. Room For Regret (Last week's rank: 1) 5-1, 723 points

Kevin's team deserves to be in this No. 1 spot for the fourth straight week.  But he relies too much on Tom Brady and LeSean McCoy.  I don't think he will win it all unless Andre Johnson and Antonio Gates return and contribute.

2. Beast Mode (3) 5-1, 716 points

Hunt's team has come a long way since I declared that he had the worst draft and ranked him 9th after Week 1.  That's what a phenomenal start from a mid-round pick like Fred Jackson will do for you.  I think he has a better chance to win the championship than Kevin does, because Aaron Rodgers and Arian Foster, along with Jackson, give him three top players who can explode in any given week.

3. Rice and Breesy (2) 4-2, 737 points 

Despite the praise I just gave Hunt, I'd rather have Sumit's team over any other for the home stretch.  Drew Brees, Ray Rice, Wes Welker and Greg Jennings is a core that few teams can keep up with.  He still needs to trade for a solid flex player though, because DeAngelo Williams and Mark Ingram have been too unreliable this season.

NFL Week 7 Picks

Ten years from now, will you tell your children where you were
when Tim Tebow had his first NFL start (since 2010)?

With the Patriots, Eagles, 49ers, Bills, Giants, and Bengals all on bye, many of the intriguing storylines of the 2011 season have taken the week off.  The early games feature some great matchups and, of course, Tebowmania.  But you might want to save some yardwork for the late afternoon: Steelers-Cardinals, Rams-Cowboys, Packers-Vikings, with the Colts at the Saints in primetime?  As Antoine Dodson would say, hide your kids, hide your wife.

Last week: 9-4, 6-6-1 Against the Spread (ATS)

Season: 59-31, 42-42-6 ATS

Bears at Buccaneers - When I went to an NFL game in London four years ago, I learned that many Brits are Bucs fans because they holiday in Florida during the winter.  Since Tampa Bay doesn't sell out their stadium anyway, this might be the best home field advantage they'll enjoy this season.

Pick - Bucs

ATS - Bucs (+1)

Redskins at Panthers - I am SHOCKED that Rex Grossman reverted to his old turnover habits against the Eagles.  You mean a quarterback who was boom or bust for 34 starts can't change overnight?  Carolina has been sniffing an upset for weeks now.

Pick - Panthers

ATS - Panthers (+1) 

Chargers at Jets - The Jets have been an eyesore for weeks, and yet this is the kind of game where they'd typically shock a superior opponent and turn around their season.  But then I notice their 28th-ranked run defense.

Pick - Chargers

ATS - Chargers (-1)

London Calling

The Giants 13-10 win over the Dolphins was the ugliest game I've seen, yet one of the best I've attended.

This Sunday, the Buccaneers and Bears will square off at Wembley Stadium as part of the NFL's annual International Series in London.  Four years ago, I flew across the pond to watch the Giants take on the soon-to-be 1-15 Miami Dolphins in the NFL's first game in the U.K.  It was one of the worst games I've seen in person, yet one of the most unforgettable football experiences of my life.  When I arrived back in The States, I wrote a synopsis of the trip for my family.  Here it is, four years later.

London was awesome.  Here are a handful my observations from the game:

a.  Part of me wondered if the Londoners would even notice or care that an NFL game was coming to town, but there seemed to be significant hype around it.  The NFL paraded a 26-foot tall animatronic Jason Taylor around London, and I caught him at Victoria station on Thursday.  Some of the people taking pictures of him told me that the game was getting decent coverage, and was being nationally broadcast on Sky (the British ESPN), which apparently showed old NFL highlight reels leading up to the game.

The Tight End in Today's NFL: Quantity over Quality

Pass catching tight ends like Jason Witten are nothing new.
We've just never seen this many before.

In the introduction to his weekly Tuesday Morning Quarterback column, ESPN's Gregg Easterbrook hails the importance of the tight end to the success of today's NFL teams.  He states that "the tight end is the essence of cracking a modern defense," and "four of the five most recent Super Bowl winners (the Indianapolis Colts, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints) featured the tight end."

Easterbrook's words imply that the tight end's place as an integral part of an offense is a recent development, but that does a disservice to the great offensive minds and athletes of the past.  In fact, pass-catching tight ends have been an important part of the game long before Jimmy Graham and Jermichael Finley were outrunning linebackers and outleaping safeties.

Coaches understood the importance of the pass-catching tight end as far back as the 1960s.  When speaking of his Charger offense, Hall of Fame coach Sid Gillman said, "You put a real tough tight end with good hands in the hash area, and there won't be anyone who can cover him.  Then you really control the passing game." ¹

Carson Palmer, Drew Bledsoe, and Relocating Franchise Quarterbacks

The Patriots traded away Drew Bledsoe, and then beat up on him for the next three years.

There are plenty of reasons to criticize the Raiders for their blockbuster Carson Palmer trade yesterday, and by now you've probably heard most of them.  Palmer hasn't been an elite quarterback since 2006, the last time he had a passer rating over 90.  Past injuries to his knee and elbow have sapped most of his throwing ability.  Hue Jackson doesn't realize how far Palmer has fallen in the five years since they last worked together.  After holding out for over two months, there's no way Palmer can learn a playbook and get in football shape in a few days. 

(Sidenote: It shocks me that Palmer's reputation hasn't taken a bigger hit for holding out.  He deserves as much criticism as Osi Umenyiora, Logan Mankins, and any other veteran who has selfishly refused to honor his contract.  I assume it's a combination of the country's apathy towards the Bengals and its sympathy for the prototypical "All-American" white quarterback.)

The Raiders now have zero picks in the first four rounds of the upcoming draft.  They haven't come close to the playoffs in years, yet they've mortgaged their future to win now.  Will it work?

Alex Smith: Super Bowl Champion?

The 49ers will go as far as Alex Smith manages them.

What team has the biggest division lead in this young season?  That would be the 5-1 San Francisco 49ers.  Jim Harbaugh, who I thought would have a tough time transitioning from college to the pros after a lockout, instead has a two-and-a-half game lead over the rest of the NFC West.  For the first time in nine years, San Francisco seems destined for the playoffs.

In fact, if not for a furious comeback by the Cowboys, the 49ers could be undefeated right now.  Furthermore, as only four of their 10 remaining opponents currently have a winning record, it's very possible that San Francisco could get a bye.  A playoff spot is one thing, but could we actually see the 49ers, an afterthought in August, hoist the Lombardi Trophy on February 5th?

KID - Week 6 Power Rankings: LVPs

Each year, eleven of my best friends and I participate in a keeper fantasy football league, dubbed "Keeper? I Don't Even Like Her!" (KID, for short).  This post, ranking the teams in our league after their Week 4 performances, is for them.

Last week, we covered the MVPs of each team.  This week, we'll take a look at the other side of the coin, as I point out who has been bringing you down the most this football season (other than your wives, of course.  Boom, roasted). 

1. Room For Regret (Last week's rank: 1) 4-1, 604 points
Last week: Bad week for Kevin.  He lost to a guy who started two players on a bye, and then spent $19 of his FAAB to pick up Darren Evans, who he dropped 12 hours later.  Evans is a practice squad player who is fourth in line after Joseph Addai, but somehow Kevin confused him with Donald Brown.
LVP: I thought Kevin got a value when he took Antonio Gates with his second pick, but all he's gotten so far is 74 yards in one game.  At this point is his career, I don't think Gates will ever make it through a full season. 

2. Rice and Breesy (2) 3-2, 638 points
Last week: Sumit had a big win over Dave, another playoff contender.  It's nice to see DeAngelo Williams realize that there's a football season going on. 
LVP: Speaking of Williams, his 17 points last week still haven't justified the first round pick that Sumit used on him.  Not only did Williams stay in a Carolina timeshare, but Cam Newton is stealing all of his goal line carries. 

3. Beast Mode (4) 4-1, 596 points

Last week: You expect 20 point games from some of Hunt's players.  Aaron Rodgers?  Of course.  Fred Jackson?  Definitely.  Dwayne Bowe?  Ok, but you're starting to push it now.  Pierre Garcon?  What the...  Someone needs to stop this before Matt starts to believe that he's a competent fantasy manager.

LVP: He's started to make up for it, but Arian Foster left Hunt high and dry in the first couple of weeks, particularly in a loss to Scott.

NFL Week 6 Picks

Does Peyton Manning know this guy is eavesdropping on his play calls?

Right now, we're still at that murky part of the season where no one really knows how good everyone else is.  We have a handful of teams that look like they can beat anybody (the Patriots, Packers, Lions and Saints), a few that look like they'll never beat anybody (the Colts, Dolphins and Rams), and a whole mess of teams that could either win their division or finish 6-10.

In half of this week's matchups, a team is favored by at least a touchdown.  I now expect at least three overtime games on Sunday.

Last week: 7-6, 8-5 Against the Spread (ATS)

Season: 50-27, 36-36-5 ATS

Bills at Giants - Maybe I'm a homer.  Maybe I'm ignoring the fact that the Giants' secondary has been bruised and battered this season, and the Bills have one of the deepest receiving corps in the league.  Or that Buffalo's opportunistic defense is playing a turnover-prone New York offense.  Maybe I'm hoping for the best because I'll be watching this one from the upper deck of Metlife Stadium. But defensive coordinator Perry Fewell, who Buffalo let go two seasons ago, has a knack for gameplans that stifle an opponent's best player.  I think he'll find a way to slow Fred Jackson, the centerpiece of the Bills' offense.

Pick - Giants

ATS - Giants (-3.5)

Colts at Bengals - My friend Pat joked in September that Jim Caldwell was 0-2 as the Colts coach, but most of Indianapolis probably shares that sentiment right now.  Let's just say Caldwell is not the guy I want next to me if my plane is going down.  Cincinnati's defense is first in the league, and Curtis Painter's hair won't change that.

Pick - Bengals

ATS - Bengals (-7)

Jaguars at Steelers - Doesn't it feel like ages ago that many draft analysts lobbied for Blaine Gabbert over Cam Newton?  Gabbert, near the bottom in nearly every passing category, is enduring a typical rookie quarterback season.

Pick - Steelers

ATS - Steelers (-13)

Touchbacks Galore: Why The Kickoff Return is Dying

Seven months ago, when the NFL announced that it was moving kickoffs up to the 35-yard line, I wrote that touchbacks would become the norm and kickoff returns would start to disappear.  It's just five weeks into the season, and even I am surprised with how much of an effect the rule change has had.

One in every two kickoffs now results in a touchback.  There were 419 touchbacks all of last year, but through only five weeks this season, we've already had 400.  But this isn't the first time kickoffs have started at the 35-yard line, so, to put this into some historical context, I decided to go back and see how the touchback rate has changed over the past two decades.

Pride and Polarity: Al Davis' Life and Legacy in Pro Football

There were plenty of reasons to admire, and abhor, Al Davis.

When a legend passes away, a prolonged public eulogy occurs where we extol the person's virtues and minimize their flaws (see: Jackson, Michael).  But for Al Davis, it's impossible to mention his contributions to football without also noting his failures.  Look back at Davis' 57 years in the NFL, and you'll see a polarizing figure who was generous to his friends and vindictive to his enemies.  With the good, came plenty of bad.

Davis was first hired as a head coach in 1963 by F. Wayne Valley, founder of the Raiders.  The upstart football mind immediately rewarded his boss with Oakland's first winning season.  But eleven years later, Davis stole ownership of the team while Valley was at the Summer Olympics in Munich.

Week 5 NFL Picks

A little last-minute, but here are my picks for this week.

Last week: 12-4, 8-8 Against the Spread (ATS)

Season: 43-21, 28-31-5 ATS

Chiefs at Colts - Indianapolis has shown a lot of fight in the last two weeks, taking the Steelers and Buccaneers down to the wire.  This will be the week they finally get their first win.

Pick - Colts

ATS - Colts (-1.5)

Cardinals at Vikings - The Arizona fans think they got jobbed on the Victor Cruz call, but they should be mad at their defense for disappearing in the last five minutes.  Patrick Peterson impressed me, as he blanketed Hakeem Nicks whenever they matched up.

Pick - Cardinals

ATS - Cardinals (+3)

Eagles at Bills - Buffalo might have the biggest home field advantage of any team right now.  Those fans will be jacked up to put Philadelphia in an early hole, but I think the Eagles are too desperate to lose this one.

Pick - Eagles

ATS - Eagles (-3)

KID - Week 5 Power Rankings: MVPs

Each year, eleven of my best friends and I participate in a keeper fantasy football league, dubbed "Keeper? I Don't Even Like Her!" (KID, for short).  This post, ranking the teams in our league after their Week 4 performances, is for them.

The first four weeks of the season were marked by some great individual efforts that carried teams to a hot start.  This week, I've noted which player has been your MVP. 

1. Room For Regret (Last week's rank: 1) 4-0, 517 points
Last week: Two return touchdowns by the Jets defense helped Kevin get the win over Stratis, despite Andre Johnson's early departure.
MVP: Right now, Tom Brady would win the MVP award in any league, fantasy or otherwise. 

2. Rice and Breesy (2) 2-2, 522 points
Last week: Sumit's 134 points were second only to Hunt.  Unfortunately, that's who he was playing. 
MVP: Words cannot describe how incredible Wes Welker has been this season.  He has 20 points more than any other non-quarterback in the league. 

3. A Few Good Chicks (3) 2-2, 495 points
Last week: Will got a stellar 36 point performance from Matt Forte, but it wasn't enough for him to overtake a 128 point week from...Jason??  I might ask Yahoo to re-run those numbers, this can't be right.
MVP: Matt Forte is showing his versatility, as he has almost as many yards receiving (310) as he does rushing (324).

"The League" Live

Last night, my roommates and I went to The League Live, performed by the characters of the hit FX comedy.  I've been a fan of "The League" since it premiered two seasons ago, and the cast was just as entertaining on stage.

The show was a mix of stand-up and back-and-forth banter between the actors and the crowd.  The highlight was definitely Steve Rannazzisi, who had us dying with his stories of doing damage control for his two-year-old son and contracting a homeless man to exact poetic justice on another motorist.  He even tossed my roommate Doug a DVD for a well-timed Chad Ochocinco joke.  The cast offered to give fantasy football advice, which quickly devolved into ridicule of audience members who droned on about why their Jamaal Charles trade should be vetoed.  The actors' takeaway was that fantasy football teams are like dreams: everyone has them, but no one wants to hear about yours.

Brett Favre Retired; Ego Still Active

"Aaron, it's been two years.  How have you not won a championship yet?"

I had nothing but respect for Brett Favre until he held Green Bay hostage in the summer of 2008.  I realized then that he had arguably the biggest ego in sports, and I'm glad that he's proven it with every action he has taken in the three years since.  That's why I was not surprised to see him tank his reputation even further in an interview with an Atlanta radio station yesterday.

Some enlightening nuggets from Favre:

On Aaron Rodgers' championship: "I'm really kind of surprised it took him so long."  (Rodgers won a Super Bowl in his third year as a starter.  Only 5 men, Roger Staubach, Joe Montana, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger, have done it quicker.  Favre didn't win one until his fifth season under center.) 

"He's very bright and he got a chance to watch and see successful teams do it right." (In Rodgers' first two years watching Favre, the "successful" Packer teams went 4-12 and 8-8.) 

On Rodgers' succession of him: "...he just kind of fell into a good situation."  (Yes, trying to replace a legend who is waging a PR war to steal your job away is the ideal situation for any young quarterback.) 

On the expectations and advantages Rodgers has, compared to when Favre was in Green Bay: "I don't think there's any pressure on him now, the talent around him is even better than when I was there."  (I think Ahman Green, Antonio Freeman, Sterling Sharpe, and the late Reggie White would all have something to say about this.) 

Favre concluded the interview with “by the way, my d*ck is bigger than his.”

Ok, I made that last one up.  But the bottom line is, Favre could not come across as more of a bitter old man, jealous that the fame he once relished now belongs to someone else.  The downward spiral continues.

Image found here.

Brown's Blunder: The Dumbest Play of the Year

Even if Victor Cruz's play had been ruled a fumble, his gaffe did not match what Ronnie Brown did yesterday against the 49ers.  I thought my eyes were deceiving me when I watched this live.  There's still 13 weeks left in the season, but I'm already giving this the award for Dumbest Play of the Year.

Some memorable follies, like Jim Marshall's Wrong Way Run or Leon Lett's fumble, can be laughed about because the team won in spite of them.  But unfortunately for Brown, the Eagles lost by less than the field goal he threw away at the goal line.

Reviewing the Victor Cruz Non-Fumble

Victor Cruz was the Giants' unlikely hero in last week's win over the Eagles, but he was nearly the NFL's goat yesterday.  When Beanie Wells waltzed into the end zone with 5:20 left to give the Cardinals a 10-point lead, I said "game over" to my roommate Colin.  But a mere two minutes later, Eli Manning had the ball, down three points, with the Giants rolling towards an improbable comeback win.  Then, after a 19-yard catch to put the Giants in field goal range, Cruz nearly threw it all away:

We Giants fans had seen this before.  Twice in the past two years, both against the Eagles, a potential game-winning drive ended when Eli Manning fumbled the ball away while falling down untouched.  I couldn't believe it was happening again.  So you can imagine my surprise when the refs ruled that Cruz was down, even though he wasn't touched.

Week 4 NFL Picks

Apologies for the delay in this post, I did not plan on having a tree knock out my internet this week.  Unfortunately, I have no excuse for my picks this year, which so far have been thoroughly mediocre.  Let's see if I can turn things around this week.

Last week: 9-7, 7-9 Against the Spread (ATS)

Season: 31-17, 20-23-4 ATS

Lions at Cowboys - Dallas, per usual, looks pretty at the skill positions and ugly everywhere else.  With Detroit's defense on the way, now is not the time to have communication issues on the o-line.

Pick - Lions

ATS - Lions (+2.5)