2011 NFL Preview: AFC East

After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here.  With the Saints-Packers opening game kickoff less than 24 hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season.  I'll go division-by-division, starting with the AFC East.

The Pats will once again outlast the Jets in the regular season.

1. New England Patriots 

Why They'll Be Better - The Patriots have lacked a pass rush ever since they traded  Richard Seymour in 2009.  Finally, it appears that Bill Belichick has taken some serious steps to mend it.  Albert Haynesworth, Shaun Ellis and Andre Carter will join Vince Wilfork to apply more pressure to opposing quarterbacks.

Why They'll Be Worse - Although I think the investments in Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco are more legitimate upgrades than previous veteran signees like Joey Galloway and Fred Taylor, Belichick is still relying on castaway veterans and inexperienced youngsters to come up big when it matters.  As we saw in the playoff game versus the Jets, that could be a risky gamble.

My Prediction - People worry whether Belichick will stay in a 3-4 defensive system or move to a 4-3, but it's never that black-and-white with him.  The bottom line is that the Patriots coach will constantly alter his system to fit his players, not the other way around.  Over a 16-game season, few teams can keep pace with New England.

The Craziest Play You've Never Seen: Preseason Judgments

Apparently, the Giants-Jets preseason game was called the
Met Life Bowl.  Just like college bowl games, the players
were paid handsomely and the outcome was meaningless.
.

In the NFL's 91 seasons, there have been a handful of games in which the final play sees a team snatch victory from the jaws of certain defeat.  Those moments inevitably go down in football history, retold again and again for future generations.  They are given legendary nicknames.  The Immaculate Reception.  The Music City Miracle.

However, the craziest play I've seen never shows up in an NFL Films highlight reel.  You can't find any iconic images of it.  In fact, old newspaper archives may hold the only evidence that it ever happened.

The game occurred 11 years ago.  The Giants were visiting the Jaguars, and had a four point lead with seven seconds remaining in the fourth quarter.  Jacksonville had the ball in the red zone, with one last chance to win the game.  The quarterback took the snap, and, as the final seconds ticked down, he fired it into the endzone.  The pass was snatched out of the air by a Giants cornerback.  Interception.  Only needing to fall down, the player could have ended the game right there.

Second Chances: Why Giants Fans Can't Get Over Plax

There are a lot of similarities between my relationships with my favorite sports teams and my relationships with women.  Introduce me to someone promising, like a highly touted draft pick, and it’s not too long before I’m infatuated.  Watch me during a Giants game, and I’ll constantly repeat a player’s first name and profess my love for him when he makes a good play.  When he makes a bad play, I’ll flip out, not because I hate him, but because I’ve invested myself in him and think he’s better than that.

If my fan life does mimic my love life, then Plaxico Burress is the crazy girl who I kept going back to, even though I had a million reasons not to.

Even when times were good with Plaxico, the warning signs were there.  The games where he got shut down in the first half and gave up in the second.  The plays where he turned his back on an overthrown ball as the defender collected the interception.   The rumors of team fines and continual traffic violations.  

My friends told me that he was just another diva receiver.  But I knew better.  They didn't know what we had.  They hadn’t read The GM, where author Tom Callahan has testimonies from players and managers talking about how Burress was kinder, smarter, and more dedicated than he appeared.  In it, Burress explains his attitude towards his art:

Dear Mr. Fantasy



Tim Hightower: the next Arian Foster?

Given my love of football, my friends sometimes make the mistake of asking me for advice for their fantasy leagues.  Having played for six years, I’m not bad at fantasy football, but I’m not notably good either.  My biggest weakness is falling in love with a player and refusing to let him go, no matter how badly he’s underperformed, because I’m terrified that he’ll finally turn things around for one of my buddies after I drop him.  Let's just say I don't deal well with regret.

Nevertheless, I do have a couple of players that I'm high and low on for this season.  Since many of you have asked, I've decided to post my fantasy predictions here.  Enjoy.

HIGH

Tim Hightower, RB, Redskins - Since trading for Hightower, Mike Shanahan has taken every step to show that the former Cardinal is Washington's new number one running back.  At 6.8 yards per carry in the preseason, Hightower seems to be the perfect fit for the Redskins' one-cut running game, just as Arian Foster was the ideal back for the Texans zone blocking scheme last year.  Words can't express how much I love Tim Hightower this year.  My bold prediction: Hightower will finish as a top 15 RB this season.

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys -  People question Romo's attitude and commitment, but the guy puts up stats with the best of them.  He was on pace for 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns before his injury last year, and he returns to arguably the best receiving group in the league.  My bold prediction: Romo will end the season as a top 4 fantasy QB.

"We Don't Practice Fucked"

Yesterday, the Colts announced that they signed recently retired QB Kerry Collins.  I was happy to hear this, as I've been a big Collins fan since he took the Giants to the 2000 Super Bowl.  I wasn't ready to say goodbye to him yet.  But this is awful news for Indianapolis fans, because, for the first time in 13 years, there's a real chance that Peyton Manning won't be behind center for a Colts game.

Given his passion and competitiveness, I think it'd take nothing short of a tranquilizer dart from coach Jim Caldwell to keep Manning off the field.  So I do actually expect to see Number 18 start against the Texans on September 11th.  But Collins' signing already gives Indy fans enough reason to be mad at their team's management for an irresponsible lack of a contingency plan for this situation.

Ready For Some Football

After six months of trying to get my football fix from NFL Films and the occasional AFL game, I just had to make it over to Gillette Stadium to soak in the start of the 2011 preseason.  Here are my thoughts, observations, and photos from the night the Patriots crushed the confidence of every Jaguars backup.

We didn’t make it to the parking lot until shortly before the national anthem.  However, that gave us the benefit of seeing this develop from afar:

A military fly-by for a preseason game.  Never doubt the popularity of the NFL.

I’d only been to one preseason game before, but I felt that the crowd was relatively big for an exhibition game.  This morning, I read reports that there was a similarly strong turnout at other games around the country.  Even though we technically didn’t miss much, I think the mere threat of losing the NFL has fans more excited for this preseason than any I can remember.   As Joni Mitchell once said, you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone.

Say It Ain't So, Steve

As a die-hard Giants fan, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention anything about Steve Smith’s departure to the Eagles last night.  Like most of Giant-land, I assumed Smith’s return to Big Blue was a mere formality.  In fact, when my friend Cheryl visited Giants training camp with me this past Sunday, she asked where Smith was, under the assumption that he’d be practicing with the team.  In an already tumultuous offseason, it was a relief to hear that the former Pro Bowler was checking-in with the team on Tuesday.

So you can imagine my shock and horror when I checked my Twitter account last night, hopeful to see news of a Smith resigning, and saw instead that he had bolted for the hated Eagles.  It was as if someone just reached through my phone and punched me in the stomach.

Why I'm Down on Tim Tebow...And Why He Needs to Start

Kyle Orton beats Tim Tebow in every passing category except
youth and potential.  So why should John Fox bench him? 

The Broncos released their first depth chart of the season on Tuesday, and to the surprise of no one, Tim Tebow is listed as the backup quarterback behind Kyle Orton.  10 days ago, I remarked that Denver was giving Orton snaps with the first-team just to raise his trade value.  However, now it looks like he will in fact start over Tebow against the Raiders on Monday night, September 12th.  It's good news if you want the Broncos to win this year.  Orton has proven in his career to be an adequate starter, and perhaps he can lead Denver to a good season in a weak division.  But if you're rooting for a Broncos championship, you should be rooting for Tim Tebow.

Let's be clear on one thing: I do not think Tebow can succeed as a quarterback at the NFL level.  Despite his well-publicized effort to improve his poor throwing-mechanics in practice, he still regresses to his bad habits in game situations.  And his penchant for running, which allowed him to bowl over and blow past college linebackers, leaves him open to injury against stronger and faster NFL defenders.  I didn't believe in Tebow before he was drafted, and little has happened in the past year to change my opinion.

"Just Be Fair": Why I Have No Sympathy For Veteran Holdouts

Osi Umenyiora, keepin' it awkward at Giants training

camp.  (Voodoo doll of Jerry Reese not pictured.)

Now that most free agents have signed their new contracts, attention turns to those players who wish they had new contracts.  This year, Desean Jackson and Chris Johnson are among those holding out because they think they’re underpaid.  But no one is more front and center of the messy contract dispute stage than the Giants' Osi Umenyiora.

(For the record, Osi is technically not a holdout, since he reports to the Giants’ practice facility every day to crack jokes with his teammates on the sidelines while giving Jerry Reese the stank eye whenever the General Manager walks by.  No, it's not awkward at all.)

This comes as no surprise, since Umenyiora griping about his contract has become an annual ritual.  However, it reached new heights in June, when the disgruntled player claimed in a lawsuit affidavit that Reese broke his promise to renegotiate Osi’s contract.  And last week, he compared his personal contract situation to a microcosm of the systematic oppression that players suffer at the hands of owners (while ignoring the fact that the NFL Players Association just signed a CBA upholding that system).  In an email to the Associated Press, he laments the one-way nature of NFL contracts, where the athlete has to play out his term while the owner can cut him at any time.  He shrewdly uses his former teammates, Shawn O'Hara and Rich Seubert, as examples of two veteran leaders who were unceremoniously cut when the injuries of a long football career had seemingly caught up with them.  He implores Giants fans to see both sides of the dispute, and to “Just be fair.”

Asom-Wow

At 6:00pm on Friday evening, I, like the rest of the NFL world, had my eyes glued to Twitter to see where Nnamdi Asomugha would sign.  The All-Pro cornerback was linked to a number of teams all week, and the rumors were running rampant.  And yet, once free agency officially opened, the Eagles came out of nowhere to scoop up the prize of the offseason.  Once the dust settles, it might go down as the best signing in free agency history.

All free agents have a red flag attached to them.  If they didn't, they wouldn't be free agents.  Every year, even the top player available has a “BUT” next to his name.  Last March, Julius Peppers was an elite defensive end, BUT did he take plays off?  The year before that, Albert Haynesworth was dominating offensive lines, BUT was he only motivated by his next contract? In 2008, Asante Samuel had just had an All-Pro season, BUT how much of his success came from Bill Belichick’s system?  The questions aren't always justified, but they're there nonetheless.  BUT...