2011 NFL Preview: Super Bowl Pick

On February 5th, Michael Vick will complete the most unbelievable of sports comebacks.

Update: In my initial post, I had the Chargers winning the AFC Championship game, and then mistakenly put the Eagles beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl.  Apologies for the brain fart. 

You can see what I think of each team's prospects in my divisional previews.  Without further ado, here are my picks for the playoffs, Super Bowl, and individual player awards. 

INDIVIDUAL AWARDS 

MVP: Aaron Rodgers  Runners-Up: Michael Vick, Tom Brady

Defensive Player of The Year: DeMarcus Ware Runners-Up: Ndamukong Suh, Terrell Suggs

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Julio Jones

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Von Miller

Comeback Player of the Year: Tony Romo 

2011 NFL Preview: NFC West

After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here.  With Kickoff Sunday a mere few hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season.  I'll go division-by-division, concluding with the NFC West. 

With an emerging quarterback with a new offensive coordinator, 
the Rams won't come up short to the Seahawks this season.

1. St. Louis Rams 

Why They’ll Be Better – I don’t know which of Josh McDaniels’ accomplishments in New England was more impressive: masterminding a record-breaking offense in 2007, or making Matt “I haven’t started since high school” Cassel look like a Pro Bowler.  He’ll do wonders for Sam Bradford’s development. 

Why They’ll Be Worse – Earlier this week, my friend Matt pointed out that the Rams' opening schedule is brutal. Five of St. Louis’ first seven games are against teams that were over .500 last season.  The Rams are a young team, and a poor start could demoralize them beyond repair. 

Week 1 Picks

Opening night of the 2011 season did not disappoint.  The Saints had a chance to tie the game on the final play, yet somehow couldn't think of something more creative than an inside run.  After the Packers had dominated the interior line all game, you just knew that call was doomed from the start.

So I'm 1-0 in my picks on the season.  I'd like to go out on a high note, George Costanza style, but there are 266 more games to be played.  Here's my take on Week 1:

Season Record - 1-0

Record Against The Spread (ATS) - 1-0

Steelers at Ravens - As the home team and my pick to win the AFC North, I think the Ravens get some revenge for last year's playoff loss.

Pick - Ravens

ATS - Ravens (-2 points)

Lions at Buccaneers - The Lions are one of my wild card teams, but the late-summer Tampa heat will cause them to stumble out of the gate.

Pick - Buccaneers

ATS - Buccaneers (-1.5)

2011 NFL Preview: NFC South

After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here.  With the Saints-Packers opening game kickoff less than 24 hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season.  I'll go division-by-division, continuing with the NFC South.

Matt Ryan and the Falcons will stay ahead of the young Bucs
and cement their place at the top of the NFC South.

1. Atlanta Falcons 

Why They'll Be Better - In a draft day trade for the ages, the Falcons mortgaged much of their future to get Julio Jones, the number two receiver that they think they've been missing.  It's early, but he has looked good in the preseason. 

Why They'll Be Worse - Although the Falcons were the #1 seed in the NFC last year, they had some breaks along the way.  Their schedule included the horrendous NFC West, they were 7-2 in games decided by seven points or less, and they were a missed field goal away from a playoff trip to Seattle instead of a bye. 

My Prediction - The Jones trade may come back to bite them down the road, but for now the Falcons are in great shape.  The Atlanta offense will only get better as Matt Ryan evolves into an elite NFL quarterback, and new arrival Ray Edwards will team up with defensive end John Abraham to pester NFC quarterbacks.

2011 NFL Preview: NFC North

After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here.  With the Saints-Packers opening game kickoff less than 24 hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season.  I'll go division-by-division, continuing with the NFC North.
 

Green Bay still leads the pack, but the Lions are catching up.

1. Green Bay Packers 
Why They'll Be Better - Green Bay made a championship run after suffering some bad injuries, and now they get those key players back.Ryan Grant and T.J. Lang will give the Packers a boost, but I'm most excited to see the return of Jermichael Finley.  By December, he could jump to the top of the tight end ranks.

Why They'll Be Worse - The departure of Cullen Jenkins was the only blot on an otherwise steady offseason for the Packers.  Aaron Rodgers' history of concussions might be the only red flag on a team with the fewest holes in the league. 

My Prediction - Typically, if a team wins the Super Bowl, it then loses in free agency.  Its players want to be rewarded for their victory, and other teams are willing to overpay them for some of that championship mojo.  Yet, the Packers are better now than they were when they hoisted the Lombardi trophy.  And with only three seasons under his belt, Rodgers  still has room for improvement.  That’s a scary thought for the rest of the league.

Kickoff Thursday - My Pick

Less than six hours until the NFL season kicks off with the Saints and the Packers.  I have some high hopes for both of these teams this season, but for tonight I'm going with Green Bay.  In the seven years since the NFL started rewarding the Super Bowl winner with the opening Thursday night home game, the reigning champion has gone 7-0.  I don't expect the Packers to blemish that mark tonight at Lambeau Field. 

Pick: Packers
Pick ATS (Against The Spread): Packers, -4.5pts

2011 NFL Preview: NFC East

After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here.  With the Saints-Packers opening game kickoff less than 24 hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season.  I'll go division-by-division, continuing with the NFC East.

An accurate representation of the offseasons in Philadelphia and New York.

1. Philadelphia Eagles 

Why They'll Be Better - Because at face-value, the Eagles had the best offseason I've ever seen.  Those comparing Philly's moves to the past drunken spending sprees of the Redskins are mistaken.  Washington signed big names like Deion Sanders and Bruce Smith when they were 33 and 37 years old, respectively.  Nnamdi Asomugha, Cullen Jenkins and Jason Babin are all in their prime.

Why They'll Be Worse - Issues on the offensive line aren't good when your quarterback is as injury-prone as Michael Vick is.  If Vince Young had a breakdown because he thought the fans in Nashville were harsh, I'd hate to see what happens if he's asked to face the Philly crowd for a few games.

My Prediction - The Eagles were already a dangerous team before they got three of this year's top 10 free agents (four if you count Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who they acquired in the Kevin Kolb trade).  A major injury to Vick is the only thing standing between them and a possible Super Bowl run.

2011 NFL Preview: AFC West

After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here.  With the Saints-Packers opening game kickoff less than 24 hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season.  I'll go division-by-division, continuing with the AFC West .

The Chargers will prove that last season was a fluke,
but the Broncos could be the surprise of 2011.

1. San Diego Chargers

Why They'll Be Better - With Vincent Jackson financially placated and Antonio Gates healthy, look for the Charger passing game to be at the top of the league.

Why They'll Be Worse - San Diego took a risk in letting Darren Sproles go and putting more on the shoulders of Ryan Mathews.  After the Chargers traded up in the first round to grab him, the young running back hasn't shown that he can handle the extra workload.

My Prediction - It's rare that a team ranked first in the league in offense and defense misses the playoffs, but San Diego did just that last season.  As much as the blocked punts and poor kick coverage hurt them last year, any improvement on special teams will have the Chargers back near the top of the conference.

2011 NFL Preview: AFC South

After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here.  With the Saints-Packers opening game kickoff less than 24 hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season.  I'll go division-by-division, continuing with the AFC South .

With Peyton finally sidelined, not even the Texans can miss this opportunity.

1. Houston Texans

Why They'll Be Better - No single unit killed its team more in 2010 than the Texans secondary.  After signing free agents Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning, the Houston passing defense may finally be able to give the offense some breathing room.

Why They'll Be Worse - These days, the Texans never lack talent but are always sitting at home come January.  If there's one coach who can miss the window of opportunity that Peyton Manning's absence has left, it's Gary Kubiak.

My Prediction - The new defensive system will not be as big of a challenge as many are making it to be.  Wade Philips' 3-4 defense has a lot of 4-3 principles that will ease the transition.  By the end of the season, Mario Williams will look like a DeMarcus Ware clone, and the city of Houston will host its first playoff game in 18 years.

2011 NFL Preview: AFC North

After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here.  With the Saints-Packers opening game kickoff less than 24 hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season.  I'll go division-by-division, continuing with the AFC North.

The Ravens will have no sympathy for Pittsburgh's Super Bowl hangover.

1. Baltimore Ravens

Why They'll Be Better - The Ravens' big-time receiver acquisitions came up small in a frustrating playoff loss to the Steelers.  However, I expect Anquan Boldin to improve in his second year with Joe Flacco, and Lee Evans has more tread left on his tires than T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Derrick Mason did.

Why They'll Be Worse - Ray Lewis and Ed Reed have held down the Ravens defense for a decade, but they have to slow down sometime.  Lewis turned 36 this year, and Reed showed signs of decline last season.

My Prediction - The Ravens are like the Jets, in that they can ride a stout defense into the playoffs but will ultimately need their young quarterback to get them over the hump.  I'd rather put my money on Flacco than Sanchez.