Cam's Struggling, Eli's Falling, and Other Lessons We Learned Last August

Remember when the critics were right about Cam Newton?

This Sunday, the Saints and Cardinals kick off the 2012 NFL preseason with the annual Hall of Fame Game. Fans know that we shouldn't read too much into what happens in August. These ae exhibition games, after all. But then our offense goes three-and-out on every drive, and then our quarterback gets blindsided on two straight plays, and then our defense can't stop the pass, and then our starting cornerback sprains his knee, and then OH MY GOD HOW ARE WE GOING TO WIN A GAME THIS YEAR???

Take a deep breath. I know, we haven't had seen live football in six months. It feels like an eternity since the Patriots' Hail Mary fell to the ground (and I almost threw myself off the Lucas Oil mezzanine). And with meaningful games still a month away, we indulge ourselves in meaningless side stories that make Antonio Cromartie and Chaz Schilens back page news. As Arian Foster said this week when reporters were obsessing over his switch to a vegan diet, "It’s just the flavor of the week. Y’all will forget about it in a month."

Last year, I detailed the error of reading too much into the preseason. To again help you keep perspective in this month of over-analysis and overreaction, let's take a look back at some of the things we learned last August.

Fantasy Football 101 - Bachelor Pad Edition

A representation of my street-cred after this post.

Last week, my girlfriend told me that she was going to organize an all-female fantasy football league for her and her friends. After explaining why this made me more attracted to her than ever before, I agreed to write her a beginner's guide to fantasy football, explaining the basic rules of the game to someone who is completely new to it. And to tailor it to her audience, I put it in terms of the summer reality show, Bachelor Pad (my roommate Doug describes it as a brilliant show where D-list celebrities look down upon aspiring D-list celebrities).

You might say this post will ruin my credibility, but the joke's on you; I don't have any credibility to begin with. Here it is for your enjoyment/ridicule. 

FANTASY FOOTBALL 101 - SO YOU THINK YOU CAN FOOTBALL?

The Symbolism of the 2012 Saints: The Next "Eff You" Season?

Sean Payton will still watch over the Saints this season. Is that a good thing?

Due to his role in the bounty scandal, Sean Payton has been banished from all Saints facilities for the 2012 NFL season. However, the brass in New Orleans is ensuring that he won't be forgotten. When Saints players arrived at the practice facility this weekend, they found a giant banner of their coach hanging above them. Going one step further, the Saints coaches will reserve an open seat for him in all team meetings and on every plane and bus during road trips. Is this a fond gesture for their lost leader, a reminder of who is in charge, or something even more motivating?

A Tour of The Giants Locker Room

On a Sunday morning in June, I checked out the defending champs' digs.

During the offseason, NFL stadiums become multi-million-dollar ghost towns. Kudos then to the Giants for using MetLife Stadium on a Sunday in June to host their first Run of Champions 5k (given the title, I hope there's a second one next year). The race was as bland as you'd expect, with up-close views of the practice field bubble, the Route 3 parking lot exit ramp, and the Route 120 parking lot entrance ramp. But the payoff was the last 200 yards, which led into the stadium and down the field to the goal line. That was the point when my girlfriend/running partner left me in the dust. Well excuse me if I wanted to take some mid-stride photos for the blog.

An Open Letter to a Drunk NFL Player About To Drive

You'd think that more players would have learned from Donte Stallworth's mistake.

According to Pro Football Talk, 12 NFL players have been arrested for driving drunk since Super Bowl XLVI.

Dear Drunk NFL Player About to Drive,

So, you've had a few drinks. I can't blame you. You're young and a celebrity athlete, so you should enjoy it while you can. You walk into a bar and managers fall over themselves to hand you drinks, while women fall over themselves to sleep with you. Life's a blast! YOLO!

But now the party's over and you have to find a way to get home. It sucks that the NFL took away your free ride program. And maybe you didn't use that service anyway because you worried your coach would learn that you were sipping mojitos at Centerfolds the night before the game, instead of in bed dreaming of your Cover-2 responsibilities against the Saints offense.

Bye Bye Blackouts? Why The NFL's New Rule Hasn't Changed Anything

Unfortunately, we haven't seen the last of NFL blackouts.

This summer, the NFL seemingly took a step towards eliminating the unpopular blackout policy that denies local fans from seeing any home games that their team doesn't sell out. With news that the league was offering owners the chance to avoid a blackout if they sold just 85 percent of a game's tickets, many fans were relieved to hear that blackouts may be a thing of the past. But when it comes to the revenue of NFL owners, it's never that simple.

A provision in the rule states that teams that take the lower threshold, but then exceed the 85 percent mark, will have to surrender more revenue from those surplus ticket sales to the visiting team. Because of this caveat, every team, except the Buccaneers, has decided to work under the old blackout policy. Cities that suffered blackouts last season, like San Diego and Buffalo, are still at risk of the same this season.

Last week, Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio wondered that if no teams are taking advantage of the rule change, then why did the owners approve it in the first place? To answer this question, we'll need to take a look back at the history of the NFL's blackout policy.

From Dream Team to Dynasty: Michael Vick's Short Memory

Don't call the Eagles a Dream Team. Just a dynasty.

Today I was shocked to hear that, a year after being plagued by Vince Young's misguided "Dream Team" boasts, Eagles quarterback Michael Vick declared in an interview that he thought the Eagles could be a dynasty. Here are his words:

“When I look at our football team and what we have on paper, I think about when I was growing up and the great San Francisco 49er teams, the great Green Bay Packer teams, and the great Dallas Cowboy teams, how they just positioned themselves to compete and be one of the best teams out there. I think we have a chance to be that. I think we have a chance to develop a dynasty.”

Now you could say that Vick was just showing confidence in himself and his teammates. Why, isn't that what Eli Manning did when he declared himself an elite quarterback last summer?

Yes, but Manning didn't spend the prior year griping about high expectations and unwanted pressure. Even before last season started, Vick said that he was sick of the Dream Team label, and that "we have enough pressure. We do not need to add any more." A month later, after an awful 1-3 start, he declared that "the Dream Team thing is over."

Contrast Vick's provocative response to this recent interview from another player whose team was haunted by unrealistic expectations last season. On NBC Sports Talk, host Eric Kuselias tries to lure Jets Pro Bowl guard Brandon Moore into making an inflammatory prediction, but Moore tactfully sidesteps any controversy.

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There's a fine line between showing confidence and welcoming unwanted pressure. After his words last season, Michael Vick should know the difference.

I'll post about two articles a week until training camps kick off. In the meantime, follow my daily NFL-related musings at @BostonGiant.

Image found here.

Long-Term Investments: Predicting the Future Of the 14 Franchise Players

Plays like his critical Super Bowl drop make it hard to properly evaluate Wes Welker.

Drew Brees is this year's poster child for contract disputes, but he was only one of 21 players who received the franchise tag this offseason. Seven of them have been rewarded by their teams with long-term contracts. Seven have signed their franchise tender and will report to training camp. The remaining seven, who have not signed, are candidates to hold out.

It's these latter two groups who are facing a big deadline on Monday. After then, teams can no longer negotiate long-term contracts with their franchise players, who will then have to play this season under their tag tenders.

This deadline, imposed by the new CBA, works out brilliantly for the owners. In the past, a player's holdout could push a GM to give him a long-term deal (see: Chris Johnson last year). But by establishing a rule that ties their own hands, teams have stolen away that power. These tagged players can boycott practices and games out of sheer frustration, but now they have nothing to gain from it.

So what will happen with these 14 players still facing the franchise tag? Will they get the long-term security they crave? Will they reluctantly play this year under the franchise tag? Or will they protest and hold out into August? Let's take a look at each player's situation and make some predictions.

Wes Welker, Patriots

Status: Signed $9.5 million tender

The debate at the crux of the Wes Welker negotiations is whether his prolific production is more due to talent or to New England's system. He has more receptions than any other player since he joined the Patriots in 2007, but he's not the prototypical elite receiver who can routinely outrun cornerbacks and outjump safeties.

Nothing exemplified this conundrum more than Welker's critical drop in the Super Bowl. Immediately after that play, announcer Chris Collinsworth remarked that "Welker makes that catch 100 times out of 100." But that's simply not true. As research guru Scott Kacsmar explains here, only eleven of Welker's 554 receptions with the Patriots have been on passes that traveled more than 20 yards. Welker doesn't routinely make those types of catches, and that makes him seem more replaceable than a Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald. 

Prediction: Ultimately, the Patriots and Welker won't find equal ground on the system vs. talent debate to reach an extension. He'll play under the franchise tag.

Ray Rice, Ravens 

Status: Hasn't signed $7.7 million tender 

The Ravens have every reason to sign Ray Rice to a long-term deal. At 25 years old and with less than 1,000 carries on his resume, the dynamic back still has years of production ahead of him. Baltimore has no proven backup to replace him. And the Ravens don't want to worry about Rice when Joe Flacco's contract expires next year.

However, General Manager Ozzie Newsome has a history of playing hardball with his top players. He let Ray Lewis test the free agent market in 2009. Last year, Newsome tagged Haloti Ngata before signing him to an extension minutes before the deadline.

Prediction: In the eleventh hour, Baltimore shrewdly makes Rice a Raven for years to come.

The Randy Moss Cycle

Randy Moss is settling in well with his new team, as he always does.

Four months into his tenure with the 49ers, the rave reviews for Randy Moss keep pouring out of San Francisco. His quarterback has said he looks like the Randy of old. His defensive captain has called him "unbelievable." And earlier this week, his head coach called him his "best receiver right now" and a great role model for San Francisco's young receivers. So far, Moss is a consummate teammate and a team leader. I'm not surprised, and I'm not buying it. 

This has been a common theme in Moss' career. To reflect on how his previous five NFL stops unfolded, let's take a trip on The Randy Moss Cycle:

Step 1: Moss arrives in a new city and dazzles his coaches with his acrobatics. Like in Oakland, where Raiders head coach Norv Turner called Moss' first practice "outstanding."

Step 2: Teammates, excited by Moss' arrival, compliment his character and either question or ignore the reports of his checkered past. Like in Tennessee, where Chris Johnson lobbied the Titans to sign him and Kerry Collins called him a "great teammate."

Step 3: Moss in turn proclaims his love for his new team. Like in Minnesota, where he told head coach Brad Childress that he was "just glad to be coming home" for a second stint with the Vikings.

In Defense of Bruce Irvin, and Other Reactions To The 2012 NFL Draft

Before you look at that draft grade, remember that many gave the Raiders an "A" for JaMarcus Russell.

"That is exactly who Russell reminds me of. A bigger, stronger and more athletic Elway. Not Randall Cunningham or Daunte Culpepper. But Elway. The Raiders do not need Calvin Johnson." - CBS Sports NFL columnist Mike Freeman before the 2007 NFL Draft. JaMarcus Russell would become one of the biggest busts in NFL history.

"The Seahawks’ draft room exploded in cheers. Team owner Paul Allen was beaming." - Seattle's reaction when Aaron Curry fell to them at the fourth overall pick of the 2009 draft. Two years later, Seattle would cut ties with Curry for a mere seventh round pick.

"Sorry. I still can't figure why, with five picks in the top three rounds, they didn't go get Anquan Boldin or Braylon Edwards. Giants fans have every right to have the attitude "In Jerry We Trust'' about GM Jerry Reese, and they'll just have to trust that Hakeem Nicks...is going to be a go-to guy for Eli Manning by October." - Sports Illustrated writer Peter King after the 2009 draft, when the Giants were in desperate need of a top receiver. Nicks' 444 yards in four playoff games this season helped the Giants to their second Super Bowl in five years.

I didn't dredge up these old quotes to critique their authors, as they merely reflected the general consensus among scouts at the time. Instead, I bring them up as a reminder to keep things in perspective as you sift through the hundreds of knee-jerk reactions to this weekend's draft. In a league where Vernon Gholston was a top 10 pick and Victor Cruz went undrafted, it's foolish to lay strict verdict on a general manager's moves before these rookies ever play a down in the NFL.

In that same vein, I refuse to join the parade of analysts who are mocking Seattle because they "reached" for Bruce Irvin with the 15th overall pick. "He shouldn't have gone higher than 25th," the draft fanatic says. That's all well and good, but Seattle didn't have the 25th pick. Unlike a mock drafter, Seahawks GM John Schneider can't manipulate the first round however he chooses. He had already traded down from pick 12 to pick 15, and clearly liked Irvin. If he couldn't trade down again (always easier said than done) and didn't think Irvin would still be there in the second round, then he was wise to use his first pick on the player he coveted. When you hear about a team reaching, remember that a GM has one selection every 32 picks.

That doesn't mean that we can't pass any immediate judgement on the selections teams made this weekend. But rather than focus on who teams drafted, I instead like to analyze what positions they did, or didn't, address. Here are some of my initial reactions to the 2012 draft.