Thursday Night Pick - Jets at Broncos

You won't see a lot of Darelle Revis in tonight's game, but his impact will be no less important.

If you're like most fans and enjoy big plays and lead changes, then you might be turned off by tonight's Jets-Broncos game.  After another tough outing for Mark Sanchez against the Patriots, New York may be apt to return to its physical rushing nature.  And Denver has fully embraced the Tim Tebow experiment, running a whopping 55 times last week.  But I'll be glued to the TV to see how Rex Ryan, one of the best defensive minds in the game, attempts to hogtie the old-fashioned read option offense that the Broncos have unleashed upon the NFL.

I looked back at the passes Tebow threw last week against the Chiefs.  It didn't take long, as there were only eight of them.  Three were deep balls designed to attack the safeties cheating against the run, but Tebow's fluttered throws allowed the defenders to recover.  Two other incomplete attempts were a dropped pitch and a well-covered checkdown.  Another was a swing pass that the slot receiver took for an extra 13 yards, and another was an out pattern that Tebow misfired straight into the dirt.  Finally, the Bronco quarterback threw an on-target deep ball for a 57-yard, game-clinching touchdown.  What impressed me about that last pass was that it came on 3rd and 10 and involved no run fakes.  Tebow simply took the shotgun snap, surveyed the pass defense, and out-threw the safety who did an awful job of providing support on that side.  It was no gimmick or option, just a regular old shotgun passing play.

Unfortunately for Denver, I don't think Tebow will have as much success against the Jets this week.  Many believe that Darelle Revis will have little impact on this game because the Broncos don't pass, but I strongly disagree.  The Chiefs were continually gashed by the Denver run game because they often played Cover 2 (two safeties deep) to provide help for their cornerbacks.  Revis will not need any help to shut down whichever Bronco receiver he lines up against.  That will allow one safety to shade to Antonio Cromartie's side, and the other safety to come down as an eighth man in the box.  Buddy Ryan's legendary 46 Defense is rarely used anymore because offenses spread the field with multiple receivers and force defenders to cover sideline to sideline.  However, it could be the perfect gameplan for his son Rex to use against the more compact Tebow offense.

If that doesn't convince you to watch the game, then I'll give you another reason.  Von Miller, the outside linebacker who Denver chose with the second pick of this year's draft, is quietly having a better season than any other rookie in the league, including Cam Newton.  ProFootballFocus touts him as not just the Defensive Rookie of the Year, but the Defensive Player of the Year.  Keep your eye on him.

Pick - Jets

Pick Against the Spread - Jets (-6)

Image found here.

Why The Green Bay Packers Won't Go Undefeated

Many forget Kent Graham and Gary Brown, but the 1998 Broncos never will.

Last night's Monday Night Football game left me with two observations: 1) Jared Allen really likes celebrating tackles when his team is down by three touchdowns, and 2) I wonder how anyone is going to beat the Packers this season.  I've already discussed Allen here.  As for Green Bay, as improbable as it seems right now, they will be beaten.  And as history indicates, it might not take a strong team to do it.

Look at their schedule, and you can't find a bad matchup for the Packers.  The Buccaneers and Lions are reeling.  The Giants' secondary has been ravaged by injury this season.  The Raiders and Chiefs have been inconsistent in a weak division, and the Bears have lost three straight to Green Bay.  Nevertheless, Green Bay will lose to one of them.

My "Glowing Review" of The 2011 San Francisco 49ers

Yesterday was the first glimpse of the 2011 49ers for much of the nation.

As I've mentioned here before, my roommate Colin is a 49er fan, so yesterday's game was a big one in our household.  Because I came out on the losing end of a bet with him, I now have to write a "glowing review" of his favorite team.  Frankly, that's not that hard, because the 49ers showed yesterday, once again, that they are a force to be reckoned with.

Here is what I wrote about San Francisco in my Preseason Preview of the NFC West: 

Every August, I predict that the 49ers' core of Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Patrick Willis and Justin Smith will capitalize on a weak division.  And every October, they’re inevitably doomed by poor quarterback and offensive line play.  I like Jim Harbaugh, but the lockout-delayed transition from college to the pros will give him a long adjustment period.

Boy was I wrong.  Harbaugh is clearly not in over his head.  He's had some learning experiences, like Handshake-gate in Detroit, but yesterday's surprise onside kick* and other innovative plays show that the rest of the league better start adjusting to him.  The Giants held the heralded 49er run game to a mere 77 yards yesterday, but Harbaugh's offense still moved the ball because they exploited one-on-one matchups between their fast tight ends and the slower Giant linebackers that were in there to stop the run.

My Week 10 NFL Picks

The NFC South isn't the only division that's up for grabs this week.

Thanks to the Raiders' upset last night, I'm already 1-0 this week.  I gave some analysis on each team in my Midseason Power Rankings, so my picks will be a bit abbreviated this time around.  If you read those rankings, you might recognize that there are a lot of important division games this Sunday.  Saints-Falcons, Steelers-Bengals, Lions-Bears, and Patriots-Jets, among others, will all go a long way towards determining who hosts a playoff game in January. 

Last week: 8-6; 6-8 Against the Spread 

Season: 83-47; 59-65-6 ATS 

Steelers at Bengals - The only other time Andy Dalton faced a 3-4 defense this year, the 49ers held the Bengals to 8 points.

Pick - Steelers

ATS - Steelers (-3.5) 

Broncos at Chiefs - Oakland's confused reaction to Tim Tebow's option offense reminded me of the 2008 game when Miami unleashed the wildcat on New England.

Pick - Broncos

ATS - Broncos (+3) 

Thursday Night Pick - Raiders at Chargers

At this point of the season, Marcus McNeill is hearing whistles in his sleep.

Finally!  Thursday Night Football is back (as long as you get the NFL Network), and it starts with a thrilling showdown between the Raiders and the Chargers for the AFC West lead.  I can't wait.

OK, so maybe "thrilling" isn't the right word.  The AFC West is the worst division in the NFL, and the only one without a single team above .500.  But with Kansas City's tough schedule and the Tebow experiment in full swing in Denver, odds are that one of tonight's combatants will host a playoff game.

They're a touchdown underdog, but I'm going with the Raiders.  Darren McFadden isn't playing, but Oakland has still averaged 128 rushing yards in two games without him.  His three interceptions notwithstanding, Carson Palmer looked better last week than he did in his last two seasons at Cincinnati.  On the other side of the ball, the Chargers offensive tackles have been dreadful this season, punctuated by Marcus McNeill's six penalty nightmare against the Chiefs on Halloween.  Richard Seymour and company will ensure that Philip Rivers' disappointing season continues.

Pick - Raiders

Against the Spread - Raiders (+7)

Image found here.

KID Week 10 Power Rankings - Breaking Down Success, Position-By-Position

Each year, eleven of my best friends and I participate in a keeper fantasy football league, dubbed "Keeper? I Don't Even Like Her!" (KID, for short).  These power rankings are for them.

Earlier this week, Will asked me if there was a coincidence that most of the top teams in our league have very good quarterbacks.  That gave me an idea.  Is there a specific position that ties directly to success?  For example, is it better to have a top QB, or a strong set of RBs?  Would you rather have a solid WR corps, or an elite TE?  What about a top defense?

To answer this question, I went back to our games and charted how many of your points came from each of your starting positions, and how much of an advantage, or disadvantage, they've given you against your opponents.

TEAM	QB	RB	WR	TE	DEF	TOTAL	QB +/-	RB +/-	WR +/-	TE +/-	DEF +/-	TOTAL +/-
Beast Mode	285	386	276	53	78	1079	101	128	73	(9)	(23)	269
Rice and Breesy	249	279	371	63	95	1056	70	(4)	142	(24)	11	195
A Few Good Chicks	172	327	292	108	119	1018	(49)	48	(14)	22	37	44
Room for Regret	232	332	226	70	121	981	19	107	7	17	2	151
Dirty Mike & The Boys	184	237	299	77	70	867	(9)	(131)	61	13	(6)	(72)
Doctor Asshole	216	264	233	67	66	846	(1)	(13)	(5)	8	(3)	(14)
Pudgy Pelican	137	257	280	116	39	830	(80)	15	(27)	76	(63)	(78)
Father Superior	215	243	208	58	105	828	8	(53)	(10)	1	(3)	(58)
Aluminum Pint	185	211	208	65	110	780	(6)	(49)	(43)	(4)	50	(53)
The Mighty Kegs	173	283	167	61	82	766	(14)	62	(84)	(14)	(8)	(58)
Lambs_of_Combat!	153	166	277	27	113	735	(44)	(85)	34	(41)	44	(92)
Hostile Takeover	160	242	213	23	67	705	5	(25)	(132)	(44)	(38)	(234)

NFL Midseason Power Rankings, Playoff Style

Unlike every other rankings you've seen, the Packers are not No. 1 here.

Every team has at least half of their schedule under their belts, so this is a fitting time for my first Power Rankings column.  You've probably seen dozens of these out there, but mine comes with a little twist.  Rather than determining who has performed the best up to this point of the season, I'm ranking the teams based on how good their chances are of making the playoffs.

For example, I think that the Patriots would beat the Texans if they played on a neutral field tomorrow, but Houston is a better bet to make the postseason in the weak AFC South than New England is in the tough AFC East.  Based on their record, their division, and their remaining schedule, I've analyze which teams have the best chance to play into January.  Without further ado, here are my Midseason Power Rankings.

SUCK FOR LUCK

32. Indianapolis Colts - I don't care how promising Andrew Luck looks, no self-respecting fan wants to see their team go winless.  Two games against Jacksonville and one against Tennessee might be Jim Caldwell's only opportunity to avoid 0-16 infamy.

PLAYING OUT THE STRETCH

 

31. Miami Dolphins - Tony Sparano deserves credit for keeping his team motivated in what has become his lame duck season.  But playing in the strong AFC East gives them only two remaining games against opponents under .500.

28-30. Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams - Misery loves company.  If they didn't have each other, each one of these teams could be challenging the Colts for the worst record in the league.

Forty-Two Deja Vu: The Giants' Eerily Familiar Super Bowl Encore

Take away the Super Bowl patch...

...and you couldn't tell the difference.

In the week leading up to Sunday's Giants-Patriots game, many writers drew the obvious parallels to Super Bowl XLII, the last time these two teams met.  On the surface, New England is still a passing juggernaut and New York's defense still starts and ends with its line, but a deeper look revealed little reason to expect another defensive struggle and fantastic finish.  Gone are Michael Strahan, Plaxico Burress, Randy Moss and Rodney Harrison.  The Patriot defense has been setting records for ineptitude and the Giants have struggled to stop the likes of Kevin Kolb and Charlie Whitehurst.  Despite the memories evoked leading up to the game, most expected it to resemble the Week 17 shootout that capped the Patriots perfect 2007 regular season, rather than the eventual championship upset.  Yet when the Giants and the Patriots took the field in the same uniforms as they did on February 3rd, 2008, sans Super Bowl patches, I couldn't help but get a feeling of deja vu. 

My Week 9 NFL Picks

Any Pats fan can tell you that this guy doesn't hold a candle to Ryan Mallett.

There's a great slate of games this week, but as a New Yorker living in Boston, none is bigger than the Giants-Patriots Super Bowl XLII rematch.  It's been almost four years since that game, but the wounds clearly have not healed up here.  The good thing for the New England fans is that, if they can win this game and make about 500 more "Eli sucks" comments to me, they will actually travel back in time and reverse the outcome of that Super Bowl.

Last week: 10-3, 6-7 Against the Spread (ATS)

Season: 75-41, 53-57-6 ATS

Falcons at Colts - Indianapolis has the second worst run defense in the league, and Atlanta is 4-0 when Michael Turner gets more than 16 carries.  Run the ball, Mike Smith.

Pick - Falcons
ATS - Falcons (-7)

Buccaneers at Saints - Somehow, the Saints play the Buccaneers for the second time in 22 days, but have yet to play the Falcons.  New Orleans is a much better team at home, and Drew Brees won't throw three interceptions like he did at Tampa.

Pick - Saints

ATS - Bucs (+9) 

KID Week 9 Power Rankings - Best Pickups

Each year, eleven of my best friends and I participate in a keeper fantasy football league, dubbed "Keeper? I Don't Even Like Her!" (KID, for short).  These power rankings are for them.

Apologies for the hiatus last week, gentlemen.  There's been some moving and shaking since the last rankings, and somehow Hunt is in first.  The zombie apocalypse can't come soon enough.  This week, I look at the best waiver wire pickup that each team has had this season.

1. Beast Mode (Last week's rank: 2) 7-1, 947 points
Matt Hunt is leading our league?  This is like the 2001 Mariners winning 116 games: you have admire the effort, but you know it's just a matter of time until the universe recorrects itself.  Pierre Garcon was a nice pickup, as he scored 59 points in the two weeks after Hunt picked him up.

2. Rice and Breesy (3) 6-2, 951 points 

Sumit leads the league in points, with a great trifecta at wide receiver (Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, and A.J. Green).  David Nelson is a consistent backup during bye weeks, bringing in six points per week since Sumit added him. 

3. Room For Regret (1) 6-2, 867 points
Kevin's team is slipping, but that's what happens when you rely on two players (Brady and McCoy) for half of your team's points.  It's a testament to his keepers and draft picks that he traded away his only notable pickup, Darren Sproles, before the start of the season.