Three Bold Predictions For Tonight's NFL Draft

For a supposed top 10 pick, Ryan Tannehill doesn't have much demand.

The first two picks of tonight's NFL Draft have been set for months now, and yet I can't remember a draft that's had this much uncertainty in the first round. Once Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are coronated, most expect the next four picks to be, in some order, Matt Kalil, Justin Blackmon, Trent Richardson and Morris Claiborne. After that, all bets are off.

Quentin Coples' skill-set could make him the first pass rusher taken, but suspicions of his laziness could push him out of the top 20. Some have Jonathan Martin as the second best offensive tackle in the draft, while others have him falling out of the first round altogether. Will a GM in the top 15 be enamored with Dontari Poe's combine drills, or will teams in the 20's still be concerned by his weak game tape? Tonight we are sure to see a supposed early pick tumble, while another lesser known prospect goes way higher than expected

I've outlined how I think the first round will unfold in Parts One, Two, and Three of my mock draft. For some further analysis, here are three bold predictions going into tonight's event.

1. The Browns will pass on Trent Richardson for Justin Blackmon.  

Here are the common reasons people are slotting Richardson to Cleveland, along with the holes I see in their logic:

My Mockery of a Draft - Part Three

Fans remember Dontari Poe's incredible Combine numbers. GMs see his underwhelming game tape.

I covered the first 20 picks of tomorrow's NFL Draft in Parts One and Two of my mock. Part Three is where I expect to see most trades happen, as desperate teams at the top of the second round try to get back into the first, while playoff teams with few holes are happy to trade down with them for future picks (paging Bill Belichick). I included a lot of deals in my mock draft last year and quickly learned that you have a better chance at a perfect March Madness bracket than correctly predicting draft trades. Needless to say, I'll be going a bit more conservative this time around.

21. Bengals: Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) - Cincinnati could use a pass rusher behind Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap, but all the good ones are off the board. Keeping Andy Dalton on the right track is priority number one for the Bengals, and teaming Kendall Wright with A.J. Green would give the young quarterback another weapon against the Steelers and Ravens defenses.

My Mockery of A Draft - Part Two

Five years from now, even a "cant-miss" prospect like Trent Richardson may be looking for a new employer.

Nothing displays the height of football's popularity like the NFL Draft. The event features men in suits critiquing another group of men in suits for the names they write on index cards. It couldn't be any less athletic, and yet its television ratings rival the playoff games of other American sports. 

However, as you join the over 40 million fans tuning into the draft this weekend, just keep in mind that only a fraction of these players we obsess over will have a significant impact in the games themselves. Just look back at the 2007 draft, and you'll see that only 13 of the 32 first round picks are still with the teams that drafted them, including only four of the top 10 picks. Robert Grifiin III, Matt Kalil, and Trent Richardson all look like sure things right now, but history shows that even the highest picks bring more busts than booms. For many of these players, the cheers they hear this weekend will be the loudest they'll ever enjoy.

I covered the top ten picks in Part One of my mock draft last week. Today, we continue with numbers 11 to 20.

11. Chiefs: Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) - Do I really expect Trent Richardson to fall out of the Top 10? No. If the Browns and Buccaneers indeed pass on him, then some team will trade  with the Rams or Jaguars to get the best RB prospect since Adrian Peterson. But if Richardson somehow falls this far, then the Chiefs will take him despite their addition of Peyton Hillis.

Explaining The NFL's Schedule Formula

Despite what their strength of schedule says, the NFL doesn't hate the Vikings.

Every year, when the NFL releases its schedule, I hear a familiar complaint. It goes a little something like this:

"How can the Patriots and Packers, the two teams with the best records in the league last year, have the two easiest schedules this year? If Green Bay was 15-1 and Minnesota finished 3-13, why do the Vikings have the eighth toughest strength of schedule?? Isn't the NFL schedule supposed to help the worst teams from last year??? Is the NFL favoring the more popular teams??? What happened to parity??? Fire Roger Goodell!!!"

All these questions come from a misunderstanding of the way the NFL determines its schedule, which is more objective than people realize. No, the NFL doesn't favor one team over another when it sets its matchups. Yes, the NFL schedule does help the worse teams from last year. But the best teams often have the easiest schedules because they had the best records last season. Let me explain.

My Mockery of a Draft - Part One

Andrew Luck is still the best player in this draft, no matter how bored you are of hearing it.

Now that free agency has died down to a whisper, we have a pretty good sense of each team's needs as they enter the draft. To that effect, here is how I think the first round will unfold next Thursday. I'll cover the Top 10 picks today in Part One, with Parts Two and Three coming later this week.

1. Colts: Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) - Analysts can only praise a player for so long before they tire of him and start to imagine chinks in his armor. Then, before you know it, everyone somehow agrees that Karl Malone had a better season than Michael Jordan. Robert Griffin III is exciting, but Andrew Luck has been the best player in this draft for two years. That won't change now.

2. Redskins: Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) - When it comes to massive draft trades, I'd rather be the side that gets the bounty of picks. Putting so much stock in one player is very risky, and teams that think they're one piece away from contending always have more holes than they realize. RG3's attitude impresses me as much as his talent, so I can't blame the Redskins for dealing away their immediate future for him. But I'm skeptical that Mike Shanahan, who has won just one playoff game since John Elway retired, can put Griffin in the position to succeed.

"Kill The Head and The Body Will Die:" Making Violence Safer In The NFL

At one time, clotheslines were part of the NFL's culture. Times change.

Yesterday morning, mere hours before the Saints were scheduled to appeal the penalties Roger Goodell levied against them, the most damning evidence about their bounty system came to light. Sean Pamphilon, a filmmaker who had unfettered access to the Saints as he prepared a documentary on ALS-stricken Steve Gleason, took it upon himself to release a tape of Gregg Williams' pep talk to his defense before their playoff game against the 49ers this January. You can listen to the full audio here, in which Williams implores his team to hit Frank Gore's head, test Kyle Williams' concussion history, and tear Michael Crabtree's ACL. He even makes reference to his pay for pain incentive system while he repeats the mantra "kill the head and the body will die."

Man, Coach, and Mentor: Why Sean Payton's Deserves His Suspension

The NFL's official investigation shows that Sean Payton is no saint (ba-dum-cha).

Sean Payton's suspension wasn't the only blow the Saints organization suffered yesterday, but that is what New Orleans fans have in mind as they paint Roger Goodell as a dictator on a power trip. Folks in New Orleans were happy to throw Gregg Williams under the bus now that he is no longer with the Saints. Losing a draft pick or two was also to be expected. And few care about owner Tom Benson's wallet (in fact, despite a $500,000 penalty, Benson actually saves $7.5 million dollars because he will not pay Payton's $8 million salary this season). But few expected Payton to suffer more than a brief hiatus from his usual duties. A four game suspension, sure. Maybe eight games, if Goodell wanted to make a point. But banishment from the league for a year? For the first suspension ever given to a head coach in league history? It seems harsh, right?

Is this a case of the captain going down with his ship? Let's look at the NFL's official announcement about what Payton was guilty of. Keep in mind that these are facts, not allegations, since they have been confirmed via investigation and confessed to by Payton.

NFL Free Agency, Position By Position

Mario Williams and Peyton Manning may soon be battling outside the AFC South.

As the official start of the 2012 league year is upon us, here's my quick take on which positions have the best options for teams in free agency, and which are better left addressed via the draft.

Wide Receiver - No position has more depth and variety in the free agent market than receiver. Vincent Jackson will give one lucky quarterback a tall deep threat. Brandon Lloyd and Reggie Wayne are veterans who've mastered the art of the sideline catch. Robert Meachem and Pierre Garcon are used to working with top quarterbacks in high-powered offenses. Mario Manningham has a flair for the dramatic, as we saw in the Super Bowl. Josh Morgan and Laurent Robinson could fully tap their potential in a starting role. Even veterans like Jerricho Cotchery and Plaxico Burress can succeed in the right situation.

Guard - If the Saints weren't already paying fellow guard Jahri Evans a seven million dollar salary, then they'd keep top guard Carl Nicks. The Ravens are in the same position, as they can't afford Ben Grubbs while they're already paying Marshall Yanda handsomely. Joining Nicks and Grubbs as an upper tier free agent is Evan Mathis, who is criminally underrated as both a football player and a sit-down comedian. For teams looking for more value at a cheaper price, Chilo Rachal is a starter in his prime and Steve Hutchinson may still have a couple good years left in his Hall of Fame career.

Forced Collusion: Why The Redskins and Cowboys Are Paying For Roger Goodell's Mistakes

Apparently you don't have to break a rule anymore to face Roger Goodell's wrath.

Between the Saints bounty saga (I refuse to call it Bountygate), the Robert Griffin III trade, the courtship of Peyton Manning, and the free agency frenzy, there's a lot of news and excitement surrounding the NFL right now. And yet this morning I find myself captivated by the news that the Redskins and Cowboys are being penalized a whopping $46 million of cap space for front-loading contracts during the 2010 uncapped year. It's not the sexiest story out there, but it might be the biggest.

At first glance, this seems like a classic punishment for Daniel Snyder and Jerry Jones, two owners notoriously known for their attempts to buy a championship. But the more I learn about this, the more evidence I see that Washington and Dallas could be the victims of some serious intimidation and manipulation by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell.

Hunger Games: Is Andrew Luck Walking Into A Death Trap?

A scene from The Hunger Games, a book based on Andrew Luck's rookie season.

On Monday, I finally took a friend's advice and started reading The Hunger Games, a best-selling novel that is sure to challenge some box office records in two weeks. It tells a tale of a 16 year old girl living in a post-apocalyptic America, where an annual adolescent fight to the death determines regional superiority. After being selected to represent her downtrodden district, the heroine is whisked away to The Capitol and presented with feasts, servants, and luxuries she could never imagine. Then, after days of ceremonies where she is showered with praise and cheered by millions of fans, she is sent into an arena to face certain death in front of a televised audience. In other words, she is the fictional version of Andrew Luck.