As the owners and players initiate a potentially long lockout, the threat of a shortened 2011 NFL season is more real than ever. Yet there is a prevailing hope that as long as a new CBA is signed before September, both sides will avoid any serious losses. Between estimating television contracts, advertising, ticket sales, and player salaries, I doubt that Roger Goodell and DeMaurice Smith have taken into account a work stoppage's impact on fantasy football. However, given this booming industry's underrated contribution to the popularity of their game, maybe they should.
There is no arguing fantasy football's influence on the record-high NFL ratings of recent years. An estimated 27 million people have a fantasy football team, including roughly 100 percent of my friends. ESPN now has entire shows dedicated to fantasy news, and Sirius satellite radio added a new station last August that provides callers with 24/7 fantasy advice. The number of fans who are tuning into games that don't involve their home team has been steadily rising, and 70% of fans have watched NFL games solely because of their fantasy team, according to a recent ESPN poll.
I expect the lockout to end in late August or the first week of September. While this will ensure that the work stoppage won't affect the NFL regular season, it will lay a huge blow to the 2011 fantasy football market. Many fans will not do a draft in August if the season is in jeopardy, particularly not before knowing where dozens of star free agents like DeAngelo Williams, Sidney Rice and Vincent Jackson will end up. And once an agreement is in place and NFL GMs hustle to put together rosters, fantasy football commissioners will scramble to organize a last-second draft. With only a few days to get their leagues in order, the short timeframe will force many fantasy footballers to pass on the 2011 season altogether.
If fantasy football participation falls, expect TV ratings to follow suit. There will be little reason for a Seahawk fan to watch a 1pm Falcons-49ers game if he no longer has Michael Turner on a fantasy roster. If a Patriot fan doesn't need Michael Vick to score him 20 points to win his matchup, then he will quickly change the channel when an Eagles-Redskins Monday night game turns into a blowout. With the Panthers at 2-9 and no fantasy team to root for, a Carolina fan won't have much interest in December football.
As the owners and players squabble over how to divide the nine billion dollar NFL pie, they expect that fans will still watch their favorite team whenever games resume. What they might not realize is that most viewers have two teams: the real team they grew up rooting for, and the fantasy team that they draft and manage every fall. If an extended lockout damages fantasy football participation, then television ratings for the 2011 NFL season will drop, even if the amount of games does not.
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