Pete's Picks: NFL Week 17

If I were Mike Smith, I'd risk Matt Ryan's health to hold onto some precious late-season momentum.

After the Green Bay Packers went 15-1-and-one-and-done in the playoffs last year, I once again questioned the strategy of playoff-bound teams that bench their starters in Week 17. I wrote:

Aaron Rodgers quickly dismissed questions that he was rusty after not attempting a pass since Christmas night, but he sure missed some throws against the Giants that he usually makes.  Are coaches foolish to rest their starters at the end of the season?  Does momentum matter so much that they should risk injury in a meaningless game to keep their team sharp?

To identify which teams could have lost momentum, I looked back at recent ones that had clinched a bye heading into the final week of the season and a) didn't play their quarterback at all, or b) benched their quarterback at halftime in a game that they eventually lost. It's a bit of a small sample size, but of the 12 such teams since 2005 that qualify, eight lost in their first playoff game. 

In a parity-laden league that makes regular-season records meaningless in January, late-season momentum is a previous commodity. If I were a coach, I'd think twice before throwing mine away.

Last Week: 9-6-1
Regular Season: 123-112-5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

As the only team to have locked up a bye already, the Falcons become this year's test subject for the momentum vs. health debate. Mike Smith says that he'll play to win Sunday. For his sake, I hope he's telling the truth.

The Pick: Falcons (N/A)

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

If it not for J.J. Watt's unbelievable season, Geno Atkins would get my Defensive Player of the Year vote. He's tallied 75 QB pressures this season, the second-highest total of any player in the entire league. That's unheard of for a defensive tackle.

The Pick: Bengals (-2.5)

PFF: 49ers-Seahawks Week 16 Preview

The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks last met on a Thursday night back in Week 7, and combined for 19 points in a game where both teams had more yards rushing than passing. With the way these two offenses have since thrived under their young quarterbacks, we may see more than 19 points in the first quarter. Will the 49ers tarnish the Seahawks’ perfect home record and clinch the NFC West? Or will Pete Carroll earn his first NFL victory over Jim Harbaugh? Here are three matchups that could decide the outcome of Sunday night's big game:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/21/3tfo-49ers-seahawks-week-16/

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Pete's Picks: NFL Week 16

John Kuhn: sometimes, a last name is enough to get you into a Pro Bowl.

Pro Bowl fan ballots have been closed, and yesterday the NFL released the top vote-getters. Reading this list is an exercise in masochism for me, as many fans choose they names that are most-recognizable, rather than those who are most-deserving. I was at least happy to see these guys on the list:

1. J.J. Watt - Last week was the first time this season that I watched Texans game film. If Watt doesn't win the Defensive Player of the Year award, there is no justice.

2. Rob Gronkowski - Even after missing the last few games, Gronk is still arguably the best receiving tight end , and definitely the best blocking tight end.

3. Von Miller - If not for Watt, Miller might get my DPOY vote.

4. Mike Iupati - Some of the biggest Pro Bowl injustices happen on the offensive line, but this 49er guard's devastating run-blocking has earned him this recognition.

5. Justin Smith - It's good to see everyone catch onto the man who we voted the No. 2 player in the NFL last year.

And here were the players who don't deserve to be anywhere near the Pro Bowl:

1. John Kuhn - He's an average blocker who is rewarded because Packers fans like to yell "KUUUUUUUUUUHN."

2. Michael Oher - He's been a disappointment since the Ravens moved him to the blind side this year, but wasn't he the guy who starred in a movie with Sandra Bullock?

3. Logan Mankins - There are better guards who have played more than eight games this season. 

4. Bernard Pollard - I can only assume this is every Patriot-hater's way of rewarding him for hurting Rob Gronkowski in the playoffs last year.

5. Jeff Saturday - He belongs in the Hall of Fame one day, but this year he has the worst PFF run-blocking grade of any center in the league.

Last Week: 9-7
Regular Season: 114-106-4

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions

The Lions have had some tough breaks this year, but losing by 28 to Ryan Lindley's Cardinals was inexcusable.

The Pick: Falcons (-3.5)

Oakland Raiders at Carolina Panthers

I hope this late push by the Panthers saves Ron Rivera's job. Barring a historically-awful season or player mutiny, every coach should be given at least three seasons to prove himself.

The Pick: Panthers (-7.5)

PFF: Next Man Up, Week 15

How have some key backups kept the Redskins and Seahawks rolling towards the playoffs? And could injuries cost the Bears and Giants a spot in the postseason? Take a look in this week's Next Man Up:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/20/next-man-up-week-15/

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Pete's Picks: NFL Week 15

In a 16-team playoff field, the Jets would control their destiny right now.

So the NFL is considering expanding it's playoff to comical NBA/NHL type levels. Let me be the 1,000th person with common sense to tell you that this is a bad idea. As I wrote in one of my first posts two years ago, the playoffs are about excitement, not justice. There's no doubt that adding another two or four playoff teams would create excitement in the first round, as well as in the final weeks of the regular season. 

But you have to draw the line somewhere. Since the NFL expanded to eight divisions in 2002, six teams with a .500 record or worse made the playoffs. If the playoffs had included 16 teams, that number would have been TWENTY-TWO. Twenty-two teams that couldn't even muster a winning record, but still could have a chance to win the Super Bowl in January. Short-term, I see the dollar-signs. Long term, the law of diminishing returns still applies. Even for a product as popular as football.

Last week: 6-10
Regular season: 105-99-4

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons

My PFF preview for this game breaks down the success of the Giants' inside runs, Tony Gonzalez's poor playoff performance at the Meadowlands, and Asante Samuel's startling success versus Eli Manning. Click here for the full analysis. Matt Ryan rarely loses at the Georgia Dome, but I like the Giants' offensive balance more than Atlanta's right now.

The Pick: Giants (+2) 

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens 

Back in Week 8, a friend asked me who the best team in the NFL is, and I chose the Broncos. I haven't changed my mind.

The Pick: Broncos (-3)

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears 

Clay Matthews is back just in the nick of time. Without him, the Packers had no playmakers in their front seven.

The Pick: Packers (-3)

PFF: Giants-Falcons Week 15 Preview

In their past eight meetings, Eli Manning has targeted Asante Samuel 31 times, completing 15 of those passes for 22 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, and a 43.4 passer rating. That's just one of the matchups to focus on when the Giants meet the Falcons on Sunday. Click here for my full preview: 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/14/3tfo-giants-falcons-week-15/

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My Week 15 Thursday Night Football Pick: Bengals at Eagles

There's a chance Geno Atkins takes this game over.

The Bengals could easily make this game a rout. They're the better team, they have more to play for, and they have the most lopsided individual matchup (Defensive Player of the Year candidate Geno Atkins going up against the battered Eagles offensive line). But the Eagles are home on a short week, they've been very competitive lately, and Nick Foles has improved tremendously since I called him the Worst Offensive Sub of Week 11. Cincinnati will win, but they'll have to sweat this one out.

The Pick: Eagles (+5)

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Odds found here.  

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PFF: Next Man Up, Week 14

Injuries are having an impact on the playoff races throughout the NFL. Here is my weekly breakdown of the subs who succeeded and flopped last week:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/13/next-man-up-week-14/

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PFF: Lions-Packers Week 14 Preview

The Lions have not won at Lambeau Field since George Bush Sr. was president. Here are three key matchups that could decide whether they end the drought:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/07/3tfo-lions-packers-week-14/

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Pete's Picks: NFL Week 14

For the second week straight, the best matchup is on Monday night. It's a Christmas miracle!

Four weeks left in the season, time to see what each team is made of. Probably my least creative intro ever.

Last week: 8-8
Regular season: 99-89-4

St. Louis Rams at Buffalo Bills

Danny Amendola and Stevie Johnson are both nicked up, so this game will be decided by the running backs. At this point of his career, Steven Jackson can't match Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.

The Pick: Bills (-3)

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Back in Week 4, the Panthers couldn't get the final two yards they needed to upset the Falcons in the Georgia Dome. Minutes later, Matt Ryan was telling them to get the f**k off his field. When an 11-1 team faces a 3-9 team with a spread this small, I'll take it.

The Pick: Falcons (-3.5)

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns

The Browns have been sneaky competitive lately, going 4-3 after an 0-5 start. But only one of those victories has come by more than a six points.

The Pick: Chiefs (+6.5)

My Week 14 Thursday Night Football Pick: Broncos at Raiders

I don't see what Philip Wheeler, or his hair, can do to win tonight.

I'm trying to find reasons why the Raiders can win this game. Darren McFadden is coming back from injury. Philip Wheeler, my Best Budget Signing free agent of this year, is having a Pro Bowl-caliber season at strongside linebacker. Home teams get an advantage on Thursday nights from the quick turnaround. But in the end, this is Peyton Manning against a defense that gives up a league-worst 31.3 points per game. I'd be surprised if this game is still competitive in the fourth quarter.

The Pick: Broncos (-10)

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Odds found here
 
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PFF: Next Man Up, Week 13

How did injuries affect last week's NFL games? This editions of Next Man Up column is headlined by an Eagles offensive backup, but not the one you might expect:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/06/next-man-up-week-13/ 

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.