Pete's Picks: NFL Week 17

If I were Mike Smith, I'd risk Matt Ryan's health to hold onto some precious late-season momentum.

After the Green Bay Packers went 15-1-and-one-and-done in the playoffs last year, I once again questioned the strategy of playoff-bound teams that bench their starters in Week 17. I wrote:

Aaron Rodgers quickly dismissed questions that he was rusty after not attempting a pass since Christmas night, but he sure missed some throws against the Giants that he usually makes.  Are coaches foolish to rest their starters at the end of the season?  Does momentum matter so much that they should risk injury in a meaningless game to keep their team sharp?

To identify which teams could have lost momentum, I looked back at recent ones that had clinched a bye heading into the final week of the season and a) didn't play their quarterback at all, or b) benched their quarterback at halftime in a game that they eventually lost. It's a bit of a small sample size, but of the 12 such teams since 2005 that qualify, eight lost in their first playoff game. 

In a parity-laden league that makes regular-season records meaningless in January, late-season momentum is a previous commodity. If I were a coach, I'd think twice before throwing mine away.

Last Week: 9-6-1
Regular Season: 123-112-5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

As the only team to have locked up a bye already, the Falcons become this year's test subject for the momentum vs. health debate. Mike Smith says that he'll play to win Sunday. For his sake, I hope he's telling the truth.

The Pick: Falcons (N/A)

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

If it not for J.J. Watt's unbelievable season, Geno Atkins would get my Defensive Player of the Year vote. He's tallied 75 QB pressures this season, the second-highest total of any player in the entire league. That's unheard of for a defensive tackle.

The Pick: Bengals (-2.5)

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

When these teams met back in Week 1, Mark Sanchez threw three touchdowns in a 48-28 victory. Unfortunately for the Jets, it was all downhill from there.

The Pick: Bills (-3)

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

I have two rules: never bet against a team playing in it's coach's first game back from cancer (especially when the opponent has never won in your building before). My other rule? Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line.


The Pick: Colts (+6.5)

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

If the Giants win (far from a guarantee at this point), they'll also need losses by the Bears, Vikings and Cowboys to sneak into the playoffs. Minnesota and Dallas have tough matchups, but I can't see the Bears losing this must-win game. If they do, then Lovie Smith deserves the chopping block.

The Pick: Bears (-3)

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

This will be the Saints fans' last home game before they get their chance to rain boos upon Roger Goodell during Super Bowl week.

The Pick: Saints (-4.5)

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

My top three head-scratching flaws amongst coaches who may one day be in the Hall of Fame:

1) Andy Reid's disinterest in running the ball
2) Tom Coughlin's late-season collapses
3) Mike Tomlin's frequent losses to awful teams. The Titans, Browns, and Chargers all defeated the Steelers this season.

The Pick: Steelers (N/A)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

In the old NFL, Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert's struggles would have been status quo for a young QB. But not in today's league, where six rookie or second-year QBs are firmly in the Super Bowl hunt.

The Pick: Titans (-4)

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Corey Webster's steep decline was one of the topics I focused on in my Pro Football Focus preview for this game. With all their issues and injuries in the secondary, a Giant win on Sunday won't be easy.

The Pick: Eagles (+7)

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco is clearly not as dominant without it's best player, Justin Smith.

The Pick: Cardinals (+16)

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

This is the fifth time in his career that Peyton Manning has won 10+ regular season games in a row. He's hands-down the best regular season QB in NFL history.

The Pick: Broncos (-15.5)

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers

Winning three of your last four games after the owner's already decided to fire you is a very Norv Turner-esque thing to do.

The Pick: Chargers (N/A)

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Feeling good about my preseason Patriots over Broncos AFC Championship pick right now.

The Pick: Patriots (-10)

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks

With the way the Seahawks are playing, this spread could be 20 and I'd still lay the points.

The Pick: Seahawks (-10.5)

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Despite all belief in the importance of good quarterback play, the Vikings are in the playoffs with a win. But the Packers are good enough to overcome a Minnesota defense that's carried the Vikings this season.

The Pick: Packers (-3.5)

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

The Redskins crowd will be a factor in their biggest home game in over a decade. But the Cowboys have to come up big at some point, right? Either way, I think this one is decided by a late field goal.

The Pick: Cowboys (+3.5)

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