The Truth About Parity In the NFL

In the wake of the Knicks' trade for Carmelo Anthony last week, I've heard a lot of writers and fans lament the consolidation of talent as a major blow to parity in the NBA.  My question is: what parity?

In the past 30 years, a mere eight different franchises have won an NBA title.  Since 1983, only twice has a team lower than a three seed advanced to the Finals.  The fact is, parity has NEVER existed in the NBA.  Each year, less than eight teams have a realistic chance of winning a championship.

The NFL is often lauded as the model for parity in professional sports.  Since 1980, the league has had 15 different franchises win championships.  In the past six years, three wild card teams have taken home the Lombardi Trophy.  It's common to attribute this "any given Sunday" excitement to the NFL's staunch commitment to a salary cap.  But parity was around before the cap was installed in 1993.  In the 27 Super Bowls prior to that season, the NFL still crowned 12 different champions.  And the NBA also has a ceiling on roster spending, yet can't come close to reaching the level of parity that the NFL enjoys.  It's clear that the roots of football's level playing field run deeper than the creation of a salary cap.

Overcoming a Tragedy

Given our recent discussion about Ben Roethlisberger and forgiveness, I found this clip from the Onion's new show, SportsDome, very apropos.  In classic Onion style, they put an extremely satirical twist on the story of an athlete who tries to "redeem" himself after committing a horrible crime.  It's very well done.

Onion SportsDome

Quarterbacks Wanted

Ask any scout, and they'll tell you that this year's draft is weak at quarterback.  Many mock drafts predict that a signal-caller won't go off the board until the eighth pick.  If so, that would mark the first time in 10 years that a QB is not taken with one of the top three overall picks.

And yet, this is the best year ever to be a rookie quarterback.  Here's why:

1) High Demand - It's becoming increasingly evident that you cannot win a championship without a franchise signal-caller.  Sixteen of the past 20 Super Bowl teams had a QB who had previously been selected to the Pro Bowl.  It seems that more teams are in the market for a QB than ever before.  Right now I think the Panthers (1st overall pick), Bills (3), Cardinals (5), Browns (6), 49ers (7), Titans (8), Redskins (10), Vikings (12), Dolphins (15), Jaguars (16), and Raiders (48) could all draft a QB in the early rounds.  That's one-third of the league.

2) What Have You Done For Me Lately? - As pro and college offenses start to more closely resemble each other, rookie QBs are more NFL-ready than they've ever been.  The quick success of guys like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matt Sanchez and Josh Freeman will make general managers less gun-shy about taking a QB early.

3) Last Call - With the need for a rookie wage scale being the only issue that the owners and players can agree upon, this will most likely be the final chance for draft picks to cash in on a big contract.  Last year, Sam Bradford signed a five-year, $86 million deal, with $50 million guaranteed; it was the richest contract in NFL history.  If a rookie cap is instituted, Andrew Luck might not get half that much next year.

Draft Boycott?

Apparently the NFLPA has been lobbying sports agents to hold their clients out of the upcoming draft as a statement of union solidarity.  Could a draft boycott really happen?

No way.  For a few reasons:

1) United They Stand, Divided They Fall - Unlike the players, agents are outright competitors with each other.  If Drew Rosenhaus abstains from the draft, that just makes it easier for Tom Condon to get his clients at the top of draft boards and in line for bigger contracts.  In fact, I could see some players jumping from a boycotting agent to one who is participating in the draft.  Which brings us to reason number two:

2) Show Me The Money - Unlike their veteran brethren, the new rookies won't have years of income to fall back on over the next few months.  Coming straight out of college, a prospect will be itching to get his first paycheck (or 40th, if he's Cam Newton) and won't allow his agent to hold him out.

3) What's In It For Me? - This is the big question that agents will ask when the NFLPA proposes a boycott, and I don't think the union has a good answer for them.  In fact, with the owners and players both agreeing to establish a rookie wage scale that will drastically cut the money paid out to draftees, the agents face the possibility of losing a lot of potential revenue from future rookie contracts.

So for those worried that we'll be robbed of the one football-related event that wouldn't be affected by a lockout, you can rest easy.  Thanks to the self-interest of sports agents, the NFL draft will go on as usual.  In this case, greed is most definitely good.

QB Trick Shots

This video has been circulating recently, and it is amazing.

(Edit: My friend Matt chided me over the weekend for not giving him credit for introducing the video to me.  I had already seen it, but I'll throw him my gratitude anyway.  Thanks Matt.)

Regardless of how many takes these trick shots took, it's still very impressive.  Sean Payton used to make his quarterbacks aim for a trash can 40 yards away at the end of practice, and it typically took them 10 minutes before they hit one.

The kid is entering his junior year and has yet to attempt a pass for UConn, so I'm interested to see if his mechanics, footwork, pocket-presence, and decision-making matches his accuracy.

For a bonus video, check out this 2009 clip from Sports Science showing how Drew Brees is more accurate than an archer:

What If...The Eagles Didn't Come Back to Beat The Giants?

"That's the way the ball bounces."  You've probably heard this phrase before.  There are nearly 35,000 plays in an NFL season, and on any one of them, a bounce of an oblong ball could determine a drive, a game, or even a champion.  In this series, I'll take a look at some of the defining moments of the 2010 NFL season and how things might have ended if the ball bounced the other way.

It's Week 15, and the Eagles are visiting the Giants in a game to determine the winner of the NFC East.  Eli Manning throws a touchdown pass to Kevin Boss on 3rd and 4 with 8:23 left in the game to give the Giants a 31-10 lead and, seemingly, the division crown.  And then everything that could go wrong for New York does.  Safety Kenny Phillips misses a tackle of tight end Brent Celek, who dashes to a quick 65-yard touchdown.  The Giants coaches fail to prepare for an onside kick that Philadelphia recovers.  Michael Vick narrowly escapes a sack and runs for 35 yards.  Matt Dodge inexplicably punts directly to Desean Jackson, and the rest is history.

But what if one of those plays went the other way?  Let's say the Giants hang onto the lead to win the game.  Even with a loss at Green Bay the following week, a win over Washington gives them the second seed in the NFC.  With their playoff lives hanging in the balance, a focused Eagles team beats the injury-ravaged Vikings and Cowboys to claim the sixth seed, leaving the Packers and the Buccaneers on the outside of the playoffs looking in.

Scouting Quarterbacks: Cam Newton, Jamarcus Russell and Controlled Workouts

Cam Newton was the biggest story of last year's college football season, and he's already well on his way to becoming the biggest story of this year's NFL draft.  The Hesiman Trophy and national championship winner made waves this week in a closed media workout, after which Trent Dilfer declared that the quarterback will "skyrocket up the [draft] boards."

It's only logical to compare Newton to Tim Tebow: both had unprecedented success as a college quarterback, both worked primarily in a spread offense, both were just as big a threat with their legs as they were with their arms, but both have question marks surrounding their accuracy and their ability to adapt to a pro-style offense.  The only difference is that when Tebow used college recruiters as ATM machines, he did so discreetly.

(I'm just kidding.  College athletes don't get paid.  And if they did, then they are promptly caught and punished.  Like Reggie Bush last year.  Or Newton in 2014.)

Super-Size Halftime Shows

I just finished reading a Sports Illustrated article from the great Peter King about Super Bowl XLV and noticed a tidbit about how the Black Eyed Peas contributed to Green Bay's win.  Well, that's not entirely accurate.  The Black Eyed Peas were simply continuing a tradition as old as the game itself: the super-long Super Bowl halftime show.

If you remember, both Charles Woodson and Sam Shields were injured at the end of the first half, leaving the Packer defense very much in limbo as it entered the locker room.  In King's article, Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers says "You know how we got lucky?  That long halftime show. It gave us a chance to diagnose the guys and find out who we'd have in the second half, and when we did, it allowed us to fix our calls and figure out what we were going to do." 

Surprisingly, an NFL halftime is a mere 12 minutes long.  Forget the "win one for the Gipper" and Pacino-esque motivational speeches; a normal halftime is just long enough for a player to run to the bathroom, get his ankles re-taped, meet with his position coach and then get a few quick words from his head coach before he runs back on the field.  Yet, in the Super Bowl, that break is extended to a whopping 30 minutes to make room for the halftime show.

Big Ben, Michael Vick, and The Prodigal Son

 
Growing up, just like any other normal Ukrainian Orthodox kid sitting in religion class at a Catholic all-boys high school, I was taught the parable of The Prodigal Son.  I was never a big fan of this story.  You've probably heard it before.  The younger of two sons asks his father for an early advance on his inheritance (the 2,000 year-old equivalent of asking your roommate for his stereo before he tries that ski jump).  After ditching town and blowing all his money on booze and hookers, the Prodigal Son comes back to his family out of desperation.  Rather than punish him, his father rewards him with a feast where he slaughters the fattened calf (the 20 A.D. version of a 1983 Chateau Margaux).  This leaves the older, more loyal, brother to wonder why he stayed home and worked on the farm for his whole life.

After seeing the kind of treatment that Ben Roethlisberger and Michael Vick have been getting recently, I'm feeling a lot more sympathy for that older brother.  The main storyline leading up to the Super Bowl was Big Ben's apparent chance for redemption.  The media announced that a Super Bowl win would somehow erase the crimes he had allegedly committed, while Roethlisberger did his part to play the victim.  He proudly stated that "When you're faced with challenges, you find ways to overcome them."  It's truly a shame when people judge you for your past actions.

The Games Are Done, But The Fun's Just Getting Started

Now that the Super Bowl is over, the offseason is here and there's plenty to talk about.  So stick with me as we follow how all 31 teams (not including the Panthers) prepare for the road to Super Bowl XLVI.  Here are some of the topics I'll address in the coming weeks:

- Free agency - Who are the top players available and where will they go?

- The Draft - From the combine to pro-day workouts to primetime on Thursday, April 28th, we'll track the future stars of the league.

- Lockout - Unfortunate as it is, this topic is unavoidable.  We'll take a look at the players, the issues, the tactics, and what everyone has to lose.

- Looking back on the 2010 season - How did the Packers end up on top?  How could it have gone differently?

One of the lesser sports also occasionally shows us something that matches the excitement of football, so I might weigh in on that as well.  But until Carmelo signs with the Knicks, my focus will be squarely on America's Game.

Please post comments below on any specific topics you want me to address.  I am very open to requests.  And while you're missing football like the rest of us, just remember that the offseason can be more entertaining than the games themselves:

Breaking Down The Tape - Super Bowl XLV

So as a new exercise in football analysis, I broke down the tape of the Super Bowl in excruciating detail.  Every snap, every formation, every block...everything.  And it took me a while.  Five and a half hours, to be exact.  But spare time is among the benefits of being gainfully unemployed.  Here is my full breakdown of what went right and wrong for each team on Sunday.

The Good

Green Bay's Passing Game - Everyone is familiar with the ability of Aaron Rodgers.  But the Packer receiving corps is also arguably the best in the league, and they showed why on Sunday. On 17 plays where they had four receivers on the field, Rodgers threw for 154 yards and one touchdown.  That calculates to a stellar 9.1 yards per pass attempt (the NFL average hovers around 6.8 yards per attempt), a total which should have been higher if not for four crucial drops by Jordy Nelson and James Jones.  Contrast that to Pittsburgh's performance with the same personnel, a 6.2 yards per attempt average on 11 plays with one touchdown, one sack and one interception, and you get a sense of how superior Green Bay's passing game was.

Mike McCarthy's spread offense - By continually spreading the field with multiple receiver sets, Mike McCarthy kept the Steelers' third defensive lineman off the field and limited the number of possible blitzes Dick LeBeau could call.  On 54 plays, the Packer offense had three or more wide receivers on 37 of them.  Furthermore, Green Bay's plan had little to do with deception.  The Packers called for a pass on a whopping 32 of those 37 plays.

Super Bowl XLV Game Review

Despite numerous disasters off the field, Super Bowl XLV came through with the exciting game that everyone expected.  The Packers emerged victorious in the end, but you have to give the Steelers credit for rebounding from a bad first half and almost completing an epic comeback.  Here are my initial post-game thoughts:

1) Rashard Mendenhall fumbles away a comeback - As the fourth quarter began, momentum was firmly in the grasp of the Steelers.  They had already cut an 18-point deficit to four and held Green Bay's potent offense to only 16 yards in the third quarter.  After a poor punt by the Packers and another good run by Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh faced 2nd and 2 at the Green Bay 33 yard line.  It seemed like only a matter of time until the Steelers took the lead to cap an historic comeback.  Unfortunately, on the first play of the fourth quarter, Mendenhall fumbled the ball on a Clay Matthews tackle and the Packers recovered.  With a new-found energy after the turnover, Aaron Rodgers promptly drove the Packers to a touchdown, and the Steelers never recovered.  If not for that Mendenhall fumble, Pittsburgh might be celebrating it's seventh Super Bowl win. 

2) James Jones, near goat -Mendenhall's fumble might also have saved James Jones from being Public Enemy No. 1 in Green Bay right now.  On the opening drive of the third quarter, the Packers faced 3rd and 5 on their own 25-yard line.  Jones shook William Gay on an in-route and Rodgers hit him in-stride up the seam.  With Troy Polamalu racing over to help, Jones would have been a footrace away from a 75-yard touchdown to again stretch the lead to 18 points.  Instead, Jones dropped the routine catch and the Packers had to punt.  I tweeted at the time that we will look back on that as a turning point if the Packers lose.  Jones had a similar mistake in the wild card game against the Eagles, when he dropped a wide-open touchdown that would have also given the Packers an 18-point lead.  He's lucky that both plays are now mere footnotes in a championship season.

Five Things To Watch For During The Big Game

I can't remember a Super Bowl that was ever this close to call.  Here's are five things to look for while watching the game today:

1) Zone blitzes - Dom Capers and Dick LeBeau both were on the Steeler staff from 1992 to 1994 and were instrumental in refining the zone blitz to be what it is today.  Simply put, the zone blitz is designed to confuse the offensive line by feigning pressure.  It involves a linebacker or defensive linemen showing rush and then backing into coverage at the snap while another linebacker or a defensive back rushes at another point of attack.  It's so effective because the defense can often get a free rusher while still keeping seven men in coverage.  It's best suited for the 3-4 defenses that Capers and LeBeau run because the extra linebacker on the field gives the defensive coordinator more options for who to rush and who to drop into coverage.  I expect to see a lot of zone blitzing from both sides today.

2) Steeler bunch formations - Green Bay likes to play press coverage on receivers.  Look for the Steelers to counteract this by moving to bunch formations with their various tight ends and wide receivers.  They have success running and passing out of these sets and it allows Ben Roethlisberger to identify the defensive coverage as man or zone.

Super Bowl XLV Pick

The Storylines

As with every Super Bowl, there's a lot on the line this Sunday.  Ben Roethlisberger could stake his claim as one of the best quarterbacks of all-time.  Hines Ward is trying to beef up his Hall of Fame resume.  Aaron Rodgers could become one of the best signal-callers in the game today while permanently vindicating Ted Thompson from the 2008 Brett Favre split.  Additionally, Mike Tomlin could become the youngest head coach to ever win two Super Bowls, while Mike McCarthy looks for his first.

Fact That Might Surprise You

No team has rushed for over 100 yards in the last three Super Bowls.  Much is being made of the Pittsburgh run defense, and rightfully so, as their performance this year has been historically good.  Fortunately for the Packers, they don't rely on their running game for their offense to move.  I see a lot of similarities between this year's Packers and last year's Saints, who won Super Bowl XLIV with only 51 rushing yards and beat the Steelers earlier this year with only 30 yards on the ground.

Is Hines Ward A Hall Of Famer?

After a stellar 13 year career, Sunday's game might be Hines Ward's last.  There are rumors that if the Steelers win, Ward might take his three Super Bowl rings and ride off into the sunset with a familiar smile on his face.

(Side note: Why do announcers misinterpret Ward's constant smiling as some child-like love of the game?  It's clearly a move to get under his opponents' skin.  The next time someone beats you out for a promotion and comes to your office nodding and grinning from ear to ear, tell me if you think a) "man, that guy's a happy dude", or b) "someone needs to punch that schmuck in the face".  But I digress.)

If Ward retires now or plays for another year, will he eventually be elected to the Hall of Fame?  Right now his career receptions, yards, and touchdowns places him 8th, 21st, and 19th all-time, respectively.  These stats are dampened a bit because the passing game is at an all-time high and receiving numbers are more inflated than ever.  Note that eight of the top 10 career receiving yards leaders are either still playing or retired in the past decade.

To put Ward's career in better context, let's compare him with other top receivers who are up for induction to the Hall of Fame now or soon will be:

Super Bowl XLV: Top 12 Prop Bets

My mom called me yesterday to ask how many boxes I wanted in my uncle's Super Bowl squares pool.  Now if I said my mother took more than a passing interest in football, then I'd be lying.  She calls me on Sundays to ask how my team is doing and occasionally claims to be a Cowboys fan because they were good in the '70s, but otherwise I don't think she cares about the sport.  And yet even she throws down $50 on the Super Bowl every year.

My point is, nothing makes gambling more acceptable than the big game.  Vegas reported more than $82 million was legally wagered on last year's Super Bowl, and some estimate than 100 times that was gambled illegally.  And there is no better friend to a compulsive gambler than prop bets.  Anyone can bet the Steelers to win.  But only a truly stupid individual can bet Ben Roethlisberger to have more passing yards in the first quarter than Sam Shields has kickoff return yards in the second half.  So with that in mind, I give you my favorite dozen prop bets of Super Bowl XLV.*

1) Coin Toss - The Christopher Columbus of Super Bowl prop bets.  I remember my uncle telling me at the start of Super Bowl XXX that there were actual people who gambled on the coin toss, and I thought "wow, those people must have problems."  14 years later, the coin landed on heads and my friend T-Bone shouted "that's $150 in the bank!"

My bet: Tails never fails.  50% of the time, it works every time.

Super Bowl XLV: What's At Stake For Aaron Rodgers

If you could have one quarterback to start for your team next season, who would you choose?  Back in August, the only acceptable answers to that question were Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger or Drew Brees.  Yet if Aaron Rodgers wins Sunday, he will force his way into the conversation.

With only three years as a starter and one Pro Bowl on his resume, we are unable to place Rodgers in history like we can with his Super Bowl counterpart.  But if we ignore past achievements and focus on which quarterback is the best in the league today, Rodgers's case is a strong one.  Since he took the reins of the Packers from Brett Favre in 2008, he's top 5 in completions, attempts, yards, touchdowns and passer rating (among passers with at least 30 starts).  The only other players who can make that claim are Manning, Brees and Philip Rivers.  Additionally, Rodgers's stellar 7.99 yards per pass attempt is the second best in the league and a strong sign of efficiency.  And as if that wasn't enough, he averages 293 yards and four touchdowns rushing each season.  Simply put, there are few quarterbacks in the league who can match Rodgers's passing ability; and those that do, aren't close to the running threat that he is.  Even without a win on Sunday, it's clear that Ted Thompson's decision to trade the final years of Favre's career for the whole of Rodgers's was a great move.

And yet, Rodgers finds himself in the same position that Brees was at this time last year.  He's had upper-tier statistics since he became a starter, yet lacks postseason success.  But after he's carried his team on an impressive playoff run, he just needs one more win to get a championship and legitimately place him aside Manning, Brady, and Roethlisberger as the best quarterbacks in the game today.  Brees saw the opportunity and grabbed it by the throat.  Will Rodgers do the same?

Image found here.

Super Bowl XLV: What's At Stake For Ben Roethlisberger

Fair or unfair, history judges a quarterback by the amount of jewelry on his fingers.  Dan Marino, despite setting every meaningful passing record in the book, is rarely considered the best ever because he never won a championship.  Joe Montana is only 10th in career passing yards, yet is the consensus pick for greatest QB of all time due to his 4-0 mark and 127.8 passer rating in the big game.

With two championships already under his belt and a possible third this coming Sunday, where does Ben Roethlisberger rank among the greatest quarterbacks of the Super Bowl era?  (For the sake of argument, I won't include quarterbacks whose careers occurred largely prior to 1965.)

First, let's establish one certainty: Ben Roethlisberger will be a Hall of Famer. He doesn't have eye-boggling statistics or any MVP hardware, but two rings go a long way.  Of the nine other quarterbacks to win at least two Super Bowls, eight of them are either in Canton or headed there.  The one exception is Jim Plunkett, who had a mediocre career as a first round bust and journeyman backup.  So assuming he continues to have a productive career for a few more years, Big Ben has the qualifications to be fitted for a gold bust.

So if he deserves to be in the conversation, where exactly does he fit?  Let's analyze him in three different categories that quarterback careers are typically judged by: