Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Super Bowl XLV: What's At Stake For Ben Roethlisberger



Fair or unfair, history judges a quarterback by the amount of jewelry on his fingers.  Dan Marino, despite setting every meaningful passing record in the book, is rarely considered the best ever because he never won a championship.  Joe Montana is only 10th in career passing yards, yet is the consensus pick for greatest QB of all time due to his 4-0 mark and 127.8 passer rating in the big game.

With two championships already under his belt and a possible third this coming Sunday, where does Ben Roethlisberger rank among the greatest quarterbacks of the Super Bowl era?  (For the sake of argument, I won't include quarterbacks whose careers occurred largely prior to 1965.)

First, let's establish one certainty: Ben Roethlisberger will be a Hall of Famer. He doesn't have eye-boggling statistics or any MVP hardware, but two rings go a long way.  Of the nine other quarterbacks to win at least two Super Bowls, eight of them are either in Canton or headed there.  The one exception is Jim Plunkett, who had a mediocre career as a first round bust and journeyman backup.  So assuming he continues to have a productive career for a few more years, Big Ben has the qualifications to be fitted for a gold bust.

So if he deserves to be in the conversation, where exactly does he fit?  Let's analyze him in three different categories that quarterback careers are typically judged by:

Statistics: Roethlisberger has never been know for putting up big numbers.  Yet I'd argue that his statistical impact is somewhat underrated.  He passed for over 4,300 yards last season and would have broken 4,000 this year if not for his four-game suspension.  At 28 years old, let's assume that Big Ben plays another six seasons (barring injury or incarceration).  That's a conservative estimate, but his physical playing style makes me think that he'll retire earlier rather than later.  Given his current season averages, he would still finish with about 40,000 career passing yards, which would land him about 12th of all-time.  That would definitely put him behind players like Brett Favre, Peyton Manning and John Elway and probably keep him short of Tom Brady and Drew Brees as well.  But he would pass Troy Aikman and Steve Young and be right in the area of Joe Montana.  Big Ben's biggest ally here is the modern pass-happy NFL, where 4,000 pass yards in a season is not as unattainable as it used to be.

Playoff Performance:  For those arguing for Roethlisberger's greatness, here is the first place they typically point.  In 12 playoff games, Big Ben has a 10-2 record.  The only other quarterback with a better mark is Bart Starr, who went 9-1 for Vince Lombardi's Packers.  Still, none of the rest of Roethlisberger's playoff numbers (61.1 completion percentage, 216 pass yards per game, 17 touchdowns and 14 interceptions for a passer rating of 85.4) stand out among the other great quarterbacks in history.  His first Super Bowl against the Seahawks was historically awful, as his putrid 22.6 passer rating set the low mark for all Super Bowl winning quarterbacks.  He was also relatively ineffective in his second Super Bowl until he started connecting with Santonio Holmes on his legendary game-winning drive.

Hardware: This is where Roethlisberger takes the biggest hit.  In a period when Brady and Manning hoard Pro Bowl selections and MVP votes, Big Ben's awards shelf is nearly barren.  With only a 2004 Rookie of the Year award and a 2007 Pro Bowl selection to his name, Roethlisberger falls far short of all other elite quarterbacks in this category.  Only Terry Bradshaw, Bart Starr and Kurt Warner have less than five Pro Bowls on their resume, yet each of them has won an MVP award.  Even Big Ben's reputation for clutch play doesn't show through in this category, as one of his wide receivers was named MVP in both of his Super Bowl victories.  Of the Hall of Fame quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl, only Griese and Favre didn't win MVP of the big game.

The Verdict

So where is Big Ben's place in football history?  Right now, he's about the 15th best quarterback of the Super Bowl era.  His current resume closely mirrors that of Bob Griese, who led the Dolphins for 12 years and shined in their early 1970's dynasty.  Griese's statistics never blew anyone away and he never won an MVP, but his eight Pro Bowls, three Super Bowl appearances and two rings earned him a spot in Canton.  Roger Staubach and Len Dawson also come to mind as appropriate comparisons.

If Ben wins on Sunday, then he moves closer to 10th.  He will have three Super Bowl wins, a distinction he'd share with Montana, Brady, Bradshaw and Aikman.  Of those four quarterbacks, I'd place him right there with Aikman, who benefited from a spectacular supporting cast and never earned an All-Pro nod, yet still performed when it mattered most.

So will Roethlisberger ever be a threat to Montana's crown as the greatest of all-time?  Four Super Bowl wins would be a requirement, and he'd have to win one or two MVP awards as well.  But given his playing style and the growing number of elite quarterbacks in the league right now, I'd say the odds are slim to none.  I can't see him ever reaching the status of Montana, Manning, Brady or Elway.  A better comparison would be Bradshaw, a great quarterback who has four championships and an MVP award but doesn't get placed on Montana and Brady's level because of the help he received from the legendary Steel Curtain defense.  Roethlisberger is still far behind the accomplishments of the last Steeler Hall of Fame quarterback.  But a win Sunday would close the gap tremendously.

Image found here.

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