Scouting Quarterbacks: Cam Newton, Jamarcus Russell and Controlled Workouts

Cam Newton was the biggest story of last year's college football season, and he's already well on his way to becoming the biggest story of this year's NFL draft.  The Hesiman Trophy and national championship winner made waves this week in a closed media workout, after which Trent Dilfer declared that the quarterback will "skyrocket up the [draft] boards."

It's only logical to compare Newton to Tim Tebow: both had unprecedented success as a college quarterback, both worked primarily in a spread offense, both were just as big a threat with their legs as they were with their arms, but both have question marks surrounding their accuracy and their ability to adapt to a pro-style offense.  The only difference is that when Tebow used college recruiters as ATM machines, he did so discreetly.

(I'm just kidding.  College athletes don't get paid.  And if they did, then they are promptly caught and punished.  Like Reggie Bush last year.  Or Newton in 2014.)

In the wake of Dilfer's gushing comments, some analysts are wisely warning GMs and bloggers alike to beware the Sirens' call of controlled workouts.  Warren Moon mentioned that Newton has the tendency to naturally throw off his back foot.  Mike Mayock forebode that "the best pro day for a quarterback I ever attended was Jamarcus Russell."  Hindsight gives us the benefit of labeling Russell as another misguided pick by Al Davis, but lest we forget that he wowed many a scout and few analysts begrudged the Raiders for selecting him.

Which brings us to the question: how much stock should we put in controlled workouts?  Well if I knew the answer to that question, then I'd be getting paid to scout quarterbacks, rather than not getting paid to blog about them.  But I do know that what players do in a uniform should be held in higher regard than what they do in shorts.  In Take Your Eye Off The Ball (a great introduction  for anyone who's interested in the basics of football strategy), author Pat Kirwan relays Dan Marino's unique perspective on quarterback scouting:

"Marino always tells me the same thing. 'If I worked out a quarterback for an NFL team,' he says, 'he'd have to show me 100 throws off his back foot.' Still, too many scouts will downgrade a quarterback prospect for throwing off his back foot. In a collapsing pocket, it's actually an important skill to have."  

I took a look at Aaron Rodgers' Super Bowl highlight reel, and, sure enough, three of the seven throws shown were on the run or off his back foot.

It's still too early to predict where Newton will go in the draft.  Tom Brady won an MVP and Rodgers won a Super Bowl this year while throwing primarily from a shotgun spread offense, so I can see that turning from a negative into a positive for guys like Newton.  But regardless, I hope the team that takes him does so because of what they saw from September to January, not February to April.

Image found here.