My Mockery of a Draft

Given the uncertainty surrounding the league right now, I think we're all looking forward to a football event that doesn't involve judges and PR stunts.  Without further adeiu, my prediction for the 76th annual NFL draft: 

1. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn  I wonder if Newton's stock would have been so high had Michael Vick not had a near-MVP season; I sense he is the player all the analysts think of when they say Newton is "high risk, high reward."  History has not favored running quarterbacks, with Steve Young being the only one to ever win a Super Bowl.  I don't see Newton reversing that trend. 

2. Denver Broncos - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama  From Keith Hamilton to Ma'ake Kemoeatu, John Fox's defenses have always had a run-stopping defensive tackle.  Nick Fairley is the better pass-rusher, but Fox will take the safer Dareus to anchor his line for years to come. 

3. Buffalo Bills - Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M  Chan Gailey got plenty of quality time with Miller at the Senior Bowl, where the linebacker took Defensive MVP honors.  The Bills are in a molasses-like transition between the 4-3 and the 3-4, which makes it even more likely that they'll go for a guy like Miller who can play in any system.  He'll be the face for a franchise that's been faceless since Bruce Smith left. 

4. Cincinnati Bengals - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia  I personally think Patrick Peterson should be the pick here, but I have little faith that the Bengals will do the right thing.  Mike Brown thinks he can convince Carson Palmer to stay, Marvin Lewis thinks he can salvage Pacman Jones' career, and Chad Ochocinco thinks he can still be an elite NFL receiver while spending 75 hours per week on Twitter.  

5. Arizona Cardinals - Patrick Petersen, CB, LSU  I think Rod Graves and Ken Whisenhunt will pass on a top rookie quarterback and aim to get a veteran free agent, as they did in 2005.  If you think Donovan McNabb or Marc Bulger can't compare to Kurt Warner, well then you've forgotten how low Warner's stock was when the Cardinals got him.  Petersen and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will form the best young cornerback tandem in the league. 

6. Cleveland Browns - Julio Jones, WR, Alabama  Pat Shurmur has the leeway to make a lot of mistakes in his first year as Browns head coach.  However, he MUST find out if Colt McCoy is his quarterback of the future, something he can't do with Mohamed Massaquoi as his top receiver. 

7. San Francisco 49ers - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska  The 49ers were hoping that Petersen would fall to them, but I just don't see six teams passing on the best talent in the draft.  Amukamara doesn't have the same potential to become the next Nnamdi Asomugha, but he's more than a consolation prize. 

8. Tennessee Titans - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri  Out of all the teams with a need at quarterback, Tennessee's is the biggest.  With Vince Young and possibly Kerry Collins gone, they can't count on sixth round pick Rusty Smith to pull a Tom Brady.  Gabbert will give them the poise and maturity that Young never did. 

9. Dallas Cowboys - Tyron Smith, T, USC  Four of Dallas' five starting offensive linemen have been in the league for nine years or longer.  Jerry Jones can't afford to pass on a tackle here, and he still gets to make a splash by selecting the sexier Smith over a safer Anthony Castonzo. 

10. Washington Redskins - Jake Locker, QB, Washington  How do you know if a team is in the market for a quarterback?  When their coach starts Rex Grossman and says things like "I thought he played extremely well up until the interception." Locker reminds me of a poor man's Matt Ryan.  They both were expected to carry their teams with a subpar supporting cast against Division I-A competition, although Ryan's accuracy is clearly better. 

11. Houston Texans- Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina  If Quinn falls this far, then the Texans can't pass him up.  New coordinator Wade Phillips is switching his defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4, and Quinn is versatile enough to line up at defensive end or outside linebacker.  Teamed with Mario Williams and Brian Cushing, Quinn could finally give the Texans the pass rush to get to Peyton Manning. 

12. Minnesota Vikings - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn  Three months ago, you would've been shocked if I told you Fairley could drop out of the top ten.  But the top pick in January is rarely the top pick in April.  Pat and Kevin Williams are both on the wrong side of 30, and it's time the Vikings looked to the future. 

13. Detroit Lions - Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson  Bowers is the popular pick to fall because of his knee issues, but it only takes one team to take the risk on last year's NCAA sack leader. GM Martin Mayhew doesn't share other teams' medical concerns, and Bowers could join Ndamukong Suh and Cliff Avril to complete the league's best young d-line. 

14. St. Louis Rams - Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois  Head coach and defensive guru Steve Spagnuolo loves to send pressure up the middle, but to do this he needs to inject some talent at defensive tackle.  Despite Fred Robbins' renaissance season, they are extremely thin at the position. 

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (trade with Miami) - Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue  What Kerrigan lacks in talent, he makes up for in consistency and hustle.  After news broke that the Buccaneers are releasing the talented but troublesome Aqib Talib, it's clear that Mark Dominik and Raheem Morris would welcome Kerrigan's leadership and spotless character with open arms.  However, they'll have to trade up to get him. 

16. Jacksonville Jaguars - Cameron Jordan, DE, California  The Jaguars had the second-worst pass rush in the league last year with 26 sacks.  As Peter King points out, they're still paying for going all-in on defensive end busts Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves in 2008.  Every AFC South defense must be founded on getting to Peyton Manning, and lucky for Jacksonville, the DEs in this draft class are good and plenty. 

17. New England Patriots - J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin  Bill Belichick has used his first pick on a defender in seven out of the last 10 drafts.  Watt's technical and intelligent play will fit right into the Patriots defense.  New England needs to address their aging offensive line, but Belichick found four out of the five current starters after round one. 

18. New York Giants (trade with San Diego) - Anthony Castonzo, T, Boston College  For the second time in seven years, the Giants and Chargers pull off a draft-day trade, although this one is slightly tamer than the Rivers-Manning blockbuster of 2004. GM Jerry Reese brings some long-overdue talent to his offensive line, as the versatile Castonzo will start in the interior and eventually take over at left tackle so David Diehl can slide into his more natural left guard position. 

19. San Diego Chargers (trade with Giants) - Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri  A.J. Smith has traded in six of his eight drafts, so the move with the Giants should come as no surprise.  Aldon Smith is raw, but the Chargers have a history of molding linebackers and they have been looking for a pass rush since Shawne Merriman fell off the map. 

20. Miami Dolphins (trade with Tampa Bay) - Mike Pouncey, G, Florida  As Shakespeare's mock drafting brother might have written, "a Pouncey, by any other name, would have fallen out of the first round."  Still, Maurkice's twin brother is still one of the top interior linemen in the draft.  The depth at both quarterback and running back, along with the extra mid-round pick they received in the trade with Tampa Bay, means Miami will be in no rush to fill those two skill positions. 

21. Kansas City Chiefs - Gabe Carimi, T, Wisconsin  It's a close call, but I believe Scott Pioli takes a page from his Patriot days and chooses Carimi's versatility and motor over Nate Solder's upside.  The Wisconsin product can start at right tackle and possibly move over to the left side if Branden Albert doesn't live up to his potential. 

22. Indianapolis Colts - Nate Solder, T, Colorado  GM Bill Polian has swung and missed on early-round two tackles in the past four years; Mike Pollak has been repeatedly benched and Tony Ugoh was cut outright.  Still, Indy's line has been held together with bubblegum and toothpicks the last two seasons, and Solder could vindicate the Colts for passing on Rodger Saffold last year. 

23. Baltimore Ravens (trade with Philadelphia) - Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado  Character concerns have dropped Smith a tier below Petersen and Amukamara, but his talent could make him the best corner out of the three.  His bump-and-run style fits Baltimore's physical defense, and Ray Lewis and company should keep him in line.  The Saints and Seahawks could both target a corner, so GM Ozzie Newsome has to move up to get Smith. 

24. New Orleans Saints - Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa  Anyone who watched Matt Hasselbeck dissect the Saints in a stunning playoff upset knows that they'll go defense with their first pick.  New Orleans has three ends over the age of 29, so Clayborn will fill a big hole in Gregg Williams' defense. 

25. Seattle Seahawks - Brandon Harris, CB, Miami  If the unorthodox Pete Carroll doesn't trade up or down from this spot, the Seahawks will grab some help on defense.  Seattle's man coverage plays to Harris' strengths, and Marcus Trufant's days as an elite corner are long gone. 

26. New York Jets (trade with Philadelphia) - Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State  There's a big drop-off at defensive end after Heyward, so the Jets jump ahead of the Falcons to get him.  Rex Ryan needs to upgrade his defensive line, and Heyward's versatility will give him even more creative leeway for his blitzes. 

27. Atlanta Falcons - Danny Watkins, G, Baylor  The Falcons would love to get a defensive end to succeed John Abraham, but there aren't any remaining with a first round grade.  Thomas Dimitroff instead goes with the best lineman available.  Watkins is already 27 years old, but he is ready to step in at any position on the line. 

28. New England Patriots - Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA  Everyone has the Patriots trading out of this pick to a QB-needy team, but I think the abundance of mid-tier quarterbacks like Ryan Mallett, Christian Ponder and Andy Dalton will dissaude teams like Buffalo and Arizona to sit tight.  There's a drop-off at linebacker after Ayers, so expect Belichick to stay put here. 

29. Chicago Bears - Derrek Sherrod, T, Mississippi State  Mike Martz's system leaves Jay Cutler open to a lot of punishment, so Jerry Angelo must improve the Bears' blocking with this pick.  Sherrod is a bit of a project, but he's the best offensive line talent available. 

30. Philadelphia Eagles (trade with Baltimore, Jets) - Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple  Andy Reid has made 29 trades in the past eight drafts, so I expect him to move down when none of his targets fall to him.  The Eagles have depth at defensive tackle, but there are no more top tier 4-3 defensive ends at this point and local product Wilkerson has great potential. 

31. Pittsburgh Steelers - Aaron Williams, CB, Texas  As I outlined in my game review, the Pittsburgh secondary was clearly overmatched against the Packer receivers in the Super Bowl.  Ike Taylor is past his prime, and Williams will be his successor. 

32. Green Bay Packers - Brooks Reed, DE, Arizona  Mark Ingram is the best player available, but Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster and Ahmad Bradshaw have shown that it pays to wait on running backs.  One thing Dom Capers learned in Pittsburgh was that you can never have too many good linebackers.  Reed will join Clay Matthews and A.J. Hawk to give the coordinator another weapon for his 3-4 pressure scheme.

Enjoy the draft everyone.  I'll be watching live from Bleacher Bar in Fenway Park, so those in Boston should feel free to join me.