Reaction to The First Round

What a crazy night.  My thoughts on the first round of the 76th annual NFL draft:

1) Atlanta's Shortsightedness  Last night, I declared that I would take a shot if the Falcons moved up 20 picks to take a receiver.  That was a bad move for me; it was a worse move for Atlanta.  The Falcons have a better roster than most teams, but they're not without holes.  Thomas Dimitroff went all-in on a prospect that he thinks is the final piece to a championship puzzle, and mortgaged his future in the process.  When has that move ever worked in the NFL?

2) Cleveland's Future Dynasty?  Last night might have been the birth of a new era in Cleveland.  In 1989, the Cowboys traded Herschel Walker to the Vikings for a boatload of draft picks, which they turned into a dynasty.  In 1995, the Browns traded their top pick to the 49ers for two first-round picks, a third, and a fourth.  The Niners took J.J. Stokes, and the next year the Browns (now Ravens) got Ray Lewis and an eventual Super Bowl.  Even the 2008 Jared Allen trade looks bad now, as the Vikings are desperate for youth and the Chiefs are on the rise.  The bottom line is, in a mega-deal like this, I'd rather be on the side getting the picks.

3) Patriots Trade Down...Again  For what seems like the 9th straight draft, Bill Belichick had two first round picks, picked an unexciting player with one, dealt the other one away, and now has two first round picks next year.  And if you're a Patriots fan, you can't be happier.  Belichick's biggest strength is his knowledge of his weaknesses.  Scouting is necessary, but he can't truly evaluate a player until he gets him onto his practice field and into his system.  Every year, he has a new group of players to groom.  He's quick to discard mistakes, like Chad Jackson, and inevitably finds some contributors, like Aaron Hernandez.  With a large quantity of mid-round picks, his draft is never a bust, and his payroll is never too high.  New England, unlike Atlanta, does not have "a Christmas feel to it tonight."  But the Patriots fans can count on having that feel at the time it's supposed to be there - in December.

4) Green Bay Must Love Their Division  It will be tough for Green Bay to repeat, but their NFC North brethren are giving them as much help as possible.  The Lions accidentally emailed a list of their pre-draft visits to the entire league (stupid "Reply All" button).  The Vikings reached for Christian Ponder, with Leslie Frazier saying "We're gonna have some great competition between Webb, Christian and Rhett" (because you can't come away from a top 12 pick without someone to push Joe Webb).  And the Bears botched a trade with the Ravens because they forgot to make the phone call to the league office ("Jerry, did you call it in?"  "No Lovie, I thought you did.").

5) The Inflation of The Nickel  The Giants draft of Prince Amukamara, despite their talent at cornerback and big need at offensive line, is the epitome of a "best player available" pick.  However, it's also a sign of the increasing need for a good nickel cornerback to stop the passing game.  As the spread offense and three wide receiver sets become the norm, we may reach a point where everyone's base defense includes three cornerbacks.

6) 49ers Won't Rely On Luck  When the 49ers passed up a quarterback for Aldon Smith, the knee-jerk reaction was that Jim Harbaugh will target his former quarterback, Andrew Luck, in next year's draft.  I think that's ridiculous, unless you think Harbaugh plans on going 4-12 next season.  As Da'Quan Bowers learned, the NFL can turn upside down in a matter of weeks.  The thought of a franchise banking its future on drafting a prospect a year from now is asinine.

7) Is Cam Newton the Answer?  It's a bad sign for Carolina that the Bills fans at the bar last night cheered when Cam Newton was drafted.  It's not unfathomable that Jimmy Clausen will have a better training camp than Newton.

8) Mock Drafting Is Hard  If someone told me I had to try to correctly predict either the first round of the NFL draft or all 67 games of the NCAA basketball tournament, I'd pick the tournament in a heartbeat.  There are just so many options for each team that it's tough to call even half of the selections.  Throw in trade possibilities, and it's downright impossible.  I was pretty confident about my mock draft, yet I only got 4 out of 32 picks correct.  I actually had Miami taking Mike Pouncey, but I thought they'd trade down first.  And I had Baltimore selecting Jimmy Smith, but I said they'd trade up to get him.  No wonder these analysts are always wrong.

Image found here.