Pete's Picks: NFL Week 8

If only Cam Newton had as short of a memory as his critics do.

Apologies for getting the picks out so late this week. But don't worry, I've made up for it with plenty of media/society/quarterback rants.

Last Week: 5-7-1

Regular Season: 46-55-3 

Washington Redskins at Pittsburgh Steelers

It says something about today's sports media (and perhaps our society in general) that last year's Super Bowl MVP staged yet another late game-winning drive, and the story after the game was "how great did Robert Griffin look?" Sometimes we're so focused on finding the next great thing, we don't enjoy what is right in front of our faces. I can't wait for next year when the Redskins beat the Cardinals and Chris Berman says "solid win for R3, but how great was Geno Smith!" By the way, the Steelers are going to look great in this game.

The Pick: Steelers (-4)

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

It intrigues me to watch the media adore Griffin and slam Cam Newton, and justify it with statements like "and to be clear, RG3 and Cam are VERY DIFFERENT PLAYERS." Has everyone forgotten how good Newton was last year, and how much they loved him? He shattered the rookie passing record. He received 47 of 50 Rookie of the Year votes. His peers voted him the 40th best player in the league on the NFL Top 100. And yet, this week I heard an analyst suggest that the Panthers may have to move on from Newton next year. Cam didn't deserve all the praise he got last season, but now the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction.

The Pick: Panthers (+7)

Pro Football Focus: My Patriots-Rams Week 8 Preview

I've had a soft spot in my heart for the NFL's annual London game ever since I went to the inaugural one back in 2007, when the soon-to-be Super Bowl champion Giants beat the winless Dolphins in a slopfest at Wembley Stadium. You can read my full story of that weekend, which included a streaker and a 26-foot tall Jason Taylor, here:

http://www.eternalsunshinepete.blogspot.com/2011/10/london-calling.html

I've also written a preview of tomorrow's Patriots-Rams matchup on PFF. Can the Patriots finally beat an NFC West team, or will Jeff Fisher best Bill Belichick for the first time since 2002? Here are three matchups that could decide it:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/10/26/3tfo-patriots-rams-week-8-london/

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My Week 7 Thursday Night Football Pick: Buccaneers at Vikings

Bottom of the highlights shows, top of the wild-card race: your 2012 Minnesota Vikings.

The Minnesota Vikings are 5-2. That sounds obvious, but I'm not sure how many people realize it. If you watched any NFL highlight show last Sunday night, you were treated to news about Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Terrell Suggs, and Mark Sanchez. And then, if you stuck around long enough, you may have seen that Minnesota beat the Arizona Cardinals to stay firmly in the playoff race. If the playoffs started today, the Vikings would be in, while much more publicized teams like the Cowboys, Eagles, and Redskins would be out.

Why are the Vikings being ignored? Probably because no one thinks they can keep this up. Few people expected much from Minnesota this season, and how could they? They were starting a second-year quarterback with a rookie left tackle. They didn't address their shaky secondary except to draft a safety in the second round and sign a cornerback, Chris Carr, who they cut before Week 1. In my preseason preview, I wrote, "...I liked the promise Christian Ponder showed as a rookie, but I have little optimism for a sub-par secondary in a division with two of the most potent offenses in the league." 

Instead, the Vikings are succeeding thanks to MVP-candidate Percy Harvin, Defensive Player of the Year candidate Antoine Winfield (pictured above), and a miraculously-healthy Adrian Peterson. I don't think the Vikings can survive a brutal second-half schedule that includes six games against teams that currently have a winning record, but I do think that they can beat the Buccaneers (and Greg Schiano's bush-league tactics) tonight. And then hopefully they'll get the attention they deserve.

The Pick: Vikings (-5)

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Odds found here.
Image found here.

Pro Football Focus: Steelers-Bengals Week 7 Preview

Can the Bengals kick Pittsburgh while they're down? Or will the Steelers once again assert their dominance over this rivalry? Click here to see my preview of this Sunday Night's NFC North battle:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/10/19/3tfo-steelers-bengals-week-7/

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.

Pete's Picks: NFL Week 7

Don't dismiss the Ravens defense just yet.

Well, my new approach from last week didn't work. 7-7, and still a few games under .500. At least my Thursday Night pick this week was spot-on.

 Last Week: 7-7

Regular Season: 41-48-2 

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills

Outscored by 55 points this season, and yet the Bills are tied for the AFC East lead. With their next two games at Houston and at New England, this is a game that Buffalo needs to have.

The Pick: Bills (-3.5)

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton took "time to reflect" during his bye week, while Jerry Jones doubled down and declared that the Cowboys will compete for a championship this year. It's not possible for both of these teams to disappoint their fans this week, so I'll go with the home underdogs coming off extra rest.

The Pick: Panthers (+2.5)

My Week 7 Thursday Night Football Pick: Seahawks at 49ers

Of course Alex Smith can't ever win a Super Bowl! He lost last week!

During last week's Steelers-Titans game, a couple of my friends asked me why it always seems like Thursday Night Football is uglier than Sunday and Monday NFL games. I'm doing some number-crunching to see if that's in fact true, and I may post my analysis in tomorrow's picks column. But if you're hoping for more fireworks, tonight's battle between the Seahawks and 49ers is not the place to look. Statistics aside, these are the two best defenses in the league (I already raved about Seattle's D in my Seahawks-Panthers Week 5 review). 

I believe that the 49ers will win because Russell Wilson struggles when teams shut down the run (as the 49ers often do), and because I don't think that one ugly game wipes away all the progress Alex Smith has made in the past two seasons. ("Can the 49ers win a Super Bowl with Alex Smith?" is the type of idiotic, controversy-inducing question that has made Skip Bayless a rich man.) However, I'd be surprised to see more than two touchdowns tonight. Take the under.

The Pick: Seahawks (+8)

Update: There was some confusion because I wrote that I think the 49ers will win the game, but then picked the Seahawks. To explain: all my picks are against the spread ("+8" means that the Seahawks are eight-point underdogs). So in this case, I think that the 49ers will win, but by a closer margin than the 8 points they are favored by. If you want an exact score, I'll say 49ers 13, Seahawks 10. 

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.
Odds found here.

Image found here.

Pro Football Focus: Patriots-Seahawks Week 6 Preview

Here is my preview of this afternoon's Patriots-Seahawks game on Pro Football Focus. Click here to see what to look for when the league's best offense takes on one of its best defenses:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/10/12/3tfo-patriots-seahawks-week-6/

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.

Pete's Picks: NFL Week 6

I used to be good at this. I swear.

I started gambling on football at a young age. One evening when I was in the fifth grade, my father returned from work with a copy of the New York Post's NFL betting lines. He'd joined a weekly pick 'em pool at his office and had to make his selections for that Sunday's games. I was new to the world of football, but I was also a nerd who loved tests, and the thought of being graded each week on my sports knowledge was exciting.

Initially I offered a suggestion here and there about who my father should pick, but it wasn't long before I was running the whole operation. Each week my dad gave me the odds sheet, I filled it out, he brought back the master spreadsheet with everyone's picks, and I spent all day Sunday tracking how I did  against the pool. My father fronted the entrance fee, and I collected a cut of any winnings. Pretty sweet deal.

And I was good at it. Really good. At least once or twice a season, I'd grab the weekly payout with a 13-3 or 12-4 record. And I nearly always was in the hunt for the overall leader position at the end of the season. My father always had stories of coworkers who were baffled by how they kept losing to a kid.

And now, look at me. My picks were a mediocre 122-124-10 last season, which is about just as good as a coin flip. I could climb back to .500 this season with a solid 11-3 week, except that I can't remember the last time I sniffed double-digit wins. And I still have yet to correctly pick a Bears game this season. I know so much more about football than I ever have, and yet I long for the success of my nine-year old self.

Perhaps I'm out-thinking myself. Perhaps, in my quest to give logical reason for each of my picks, I'm talking myself into teams that I don't believe in. Perhaps I need to stop worrying about Cover-2 schemes and zone-read run games and just pick the Broncos because I think the Chargers are overrated. This week, I'll try to channel my grade-school self and go with my gut. Let's see if it works.

Last Week: 7-7

Regular Season: 34-41-2 

Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons

The next two weeks, the Falcons have the Raiders and a bye while the Texans host the Packers and Ravens. My money is on Atlanta being the last remaining undefeated team this season.

The Pick: Falcons (-8.5)

Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens

Extra preparation time is advantageous to some teams, but perhaps not Dallas. Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 1-3 in games after 10+ days of rest.

The Pick: Ravens (-3.5)

My Week 6 Thursday Night Football Pick: Steelers at Titans

Titans safety Michael Griffin, in happier times.

When making my Thursday Night Football pick, I typically like to highlight a high-performing player who may not be a household name. Last week it was Rams defensive end Chris Long, who, according to our analysis at Pro Football Focus, abused the Cardinals offensive line for nine quarterback pressures and may have left Kevin Kolb shell-shocked for the rest of the season.

This week, I'll highlight a player not for his good play, but for his bad. The Titans are surrendering a league-worst 36.2 points per game, and much of it has to do with veteran safety Michael Griffin. After a solid 2011 season, the Titans franchise-tagged Griffin this spring and rewarded him with a five-year contract. He has not rewarded their faith. Griffin's 2012 season has been a mess of blown coverages and a league-high 12 missed tackles. Quarterbacks have a 156.8 passer rating when throwing the ball in Griffin's direction. When Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace, and Rashard Mendenhall are running free in the Titans' secondary tonight, odds are that Griffin will have had something to do with it.

The Pick: Steelers (-6)

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.

Odds found here.

Image found here.

Pro Football Focus: Seahawks-Panthers Week 5 Review...

 

Each week at Pro Football Focus, I break down every play of one NFL game and then write a review of its best and worst performers.

This past Sunday, two of the league's young quarterbacks found themselves in a defensive struggle when the Panthers hosted the Seahawks at Bank of America Stadium . Click below to read about which QB had the best day of his career, which QB had the worst day of his, how cornerbacks are throwing Steve Smith off his game, and why the Seahawks defense may be the best in the league:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/10/09/refo-seahawks-panthers-week-5/

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.

My Week 5 NFL Picks

One week of listening to local sports radio has me defending this guy.

Well, not a great start to this season for my picks. But not having to travel across New England for the first time in three weeks has given me some extra time to think about this weekend's games. I'm very confident in these picks. Except the Bears game. I don't understand the Bears.

Last Week: 6-8-1

Regular Season: 27-34-2 

Cleveland Browns at New York Giants

In my Pro Football Focus "3 To Focus On" preview, I noted that the Giants have a history of falling into these trap games. On the other hand, I don't think that the Browns have the passing firepower to take advantage of New York's injured secondary.

The Pick: Giants (-7.5)

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals

In four games as a defensive end in the Dolphins' new 4-3 scheme, Cameron Wake has 34 QB pressures and a ridiculous +27.3 Pro Football Focus grade. To put that in perspective, the entire Jets defense has 39 QB pressures combined this season.

The Pick: Dolphins (+3)

Pro Football Focus: Browns-Giants Week 5 Preview

My preview of this Sunday's Browns-Giants game is up on Pro Football Focus. Click here to see how the Giants should attack the Browns rookies on offense, and which Cleveland defenders could capitalize on Eli Manning's mistakes:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/10/05/3tfo-browns-giants-week-5/

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.

My Week 5 Thursday Night Football Pick: Cardinals at Rams

America, meet Chris Long.

When the NFL schedule was revealed in April, I listed the five games on the Thursday Night Football schedule that you could afford to skip. Guess which game I picked as the worst of the bunch?

"1. Cardinals at Rams (Week 5, Thursday Night) - Kurt Warner's old team takes on Kurt Warner's older team? That's the best I can do. I give up."

Well, clearly things haven't turned out as expected. With a win tonight, we'll either see the Cardinals start the season 5-0, or the Rams with a winning record for the first time since 2006. I'm going with the Rams because I cannot trust the Cardinals offensive line. According to our premium stats at Pro Football Focus (I highly recommend a subscription), tackles Bobby Massie and D'Anthony Batiste have surrendered 12 sacks, three hits, and 29 hurries of their QB this season. That's a problem against Chris Long and the underrated Rams defense.

The Pick: Rams (+1)

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.

Odds found here.

Pro Football Focus: Panthers-Falcons Week 4 Review

Each week at Pro Football Focus, I spend 10 hours breaking down the tape for one NFL game and then write a review of its best and worst performers.

The Panthers were a couple of yards and a couple of minutes away from a big upset, but there's a reason Matt Ryan went by "Matty Ice" at Boston College. Click below to see what impressed me most about Ryan's game, what pass rusher nearly ruined it for him, and who I gave my PFF Game Ball to.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/10/03/refo-panthers-falcons-week-4/

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.