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| Don't dismiss the Ravens defense just yet. |
Last Week: 7-7
Regular Season: 41-48-2
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills
Outscored by 55 points this season, and yet the Bills are tied for the AFC East lead. With their next two games at Houston and at New England, this is a game that Buffalo needs to have.
The Pick: Bills (-3.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton took "time to reflect" during his bye week, while Jerry Jones doubled down and declared that the Cowboys will compete for a championship this year. It's not possible for both of these teams to disappoint their fans this week, so I'll go with the home underdogs coming off extra rest.
The Pick: Panthers (+2.5)The Giants couldn't beat Rex Grossman last year, so why should they fare better against Robert Griffin III? Perhaps because in the past four weeks, New York has held Newton, Michael Vick, and Colin Kaepernick to a combined 61 yards on 14 rushes. My money is on New York to keep RG3 under wrapsfor the win, but this is a Giants home game after all. Expect a nail-biter.
The Pick: Redskins (+7)
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
When the NFL schedule came out in April, I highlighted this game as our opportunity to answer the question, "What if Matt Schaub had been healthy for the Texans' playoff run?" Ironically, it's now the Ravens who come into this one short-handed. While everyone counts them out and prepares for life after Ray Lewis, I believe that the battle-tested Baltimore defense will rally around its fallen teammates to pull off the surprise win in Houston.
The Pick: Ravens (+7)
The Pick: Ravens (+7)
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts' poor run defense surrendered 161 yards to Shonn Greene, one of the most un-dynamic starting running backs I can remember. I cringe to think of what the uber-talented Trent Richardson will do to it.
The Pick: Browns (+2.5)
The Pick: Browns (+2.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
Who ever thought that the winner of this game would be 5-2? I refuse to pick the Cardinals until I see some evidence that they can protect their quarterback.
The Pick: Vikings (-7)
Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams
One of my coworkers made the point that, given how well the Seahawks are doing, it's very possible that the Monday Night Football replacement referee gaffe could be the tiebreaker that keeps the Packers out of the playoffs. To avoid that fate, Green Bay needs to win games like this.
The Pick: Packers (-5.5)
The Pick: Packers (-5.5)
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A 1-5 start for the Saints was unthinkable before the season started, but New Orleans has shown no ability to handle a physical team like Tampa Bay.
The Pick: Buccaneers (+2)
New York Jets at New England Patriots
How are the Patriots preparing for Tim Tebow this week? I imagine that Bill Belichick stood up in front of the team and said, "Guys, remember how we held Tebow to nine completions and 13 rushing yards in the playoffs last year? Yeah, do that again."
The Pick: Patriots (-10)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders
I previewed this game for Pro Football Focus here. I'm tempted to say that the Bengals will pounce on this opportunity to kick the Steelers while they're down. But Pittsburgh's defense will blanket A.J. Green, and I don't think Cincinnati has enough other weapons to make them pay for it.
The Pick: Steelers (-2)
The Pick: Patriots (-10)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders
After some signs of progress in the offseason, Blaine Gabbert is back near the bottom of the league in every major statistical passing category. I can't see how Gabbert, or GM Gene Smith, still have their jobs next summer.
The Pick: Raiders (-4)
The Pick: Raiders (-4)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
I previewed this game for Pro Football Focus here. I'm tempted to say that the Bengals will pounce on this opportunity to kick the Steelers while they're down. But Pittsburgh's defense will blanket A.J. Green, and I don't think Cincinnati has enough other weapons to make them pay for it.
The Pick: Steelers (-2)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
In a Week 5 Monday Night matchup last season, the Lions pressured Jay Cutler on 28 of his 38 dropbacks. The Bears' offensive line has shown improvement in 2012, but right tackle Gabe Carimi is a sieve in his sophomore year. If Cliff Avril wants his long-term deal from the Lions, lining up across from Carimi on national television would be a good place to make his case.
The Pick: Lions (+7)
Follow me at @PFF_Pete.
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