My Week 5 NFL Picks

One week of listening to local sports radio has me defending this guy.

Well, not a great start to this season for my picks. But not having to travel across New England for the first time in three weeks has given me some extra time to think about this weekend's games. I'm very confident in these picks. Except the Bears game. I don't understand the Bears.

Last Week: 6-8-1

Regular Season: 27-34-2 

Cleveland Browns at New York Giants

In my Pro Football Focus "3 To Focus On" preview, I noted that the Giants have a history of falling into these trap games. On the other hand, I don't think that the Browns have the passing firepower to take advantage of New York's injured secondary.

The Pick: Giants (-7.5)

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals

In four games as a defensive end in the Dolphins' new 4-3 scheme, Cameron Wake has 34 QB pressures and a ridiculous +27.3 Pro Football Focus grade. To put that in perspective, the entire Jets defense has 39 QB pressures combined this season.

The Pick: Dolphins (+3)

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

Much of the Colts' transition to a 3-4 defense was reliant upon the experience of Chuck Pagano. Now that Indy has lost its head coach for the foreseeable future, the road will be a lot bumpier.

The Pick: Packers (-7)

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars

If I had any read on this team, I'd go with Chicago and their defense that embarrassed the Cowboys on Monday night. But I have yet to pick a Bears game correctly this season. If I learned one thing from watching George Costanza, it's that if every instinct I have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.


 
The Pick: Jaguars (+5)

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Jamaal Charles leads the league's 2nd-best running offense in Kansas City, but Baltimore has been known to shut down an RB or two over the years. Only Mark Sanchez, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden have a worse QB rating than Matt Cassel.

The Pick: Ravens (-6)

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers

After going 2-6 in games decided by one score last year, the Eagles are 3-0 this season. You'll undoubtedly see some analysts speak of their newfound "ability to close games," but records in tight games are often at the mercy of chance. Philly is playing with house money.

The Pick: Steelers (-3.5)

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins

I reviewed Matt Ryan's late-game heroics against the Panthers here. If I had to pick an MVP for the first quarter of the season, my vote would go to Matty Ice.

The Pick:Falcons (-3)

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers

I'll be breaking down this game for Pro Football Focus and am excited to see how the Panthers will use their zone-read running game to slow down the Seahawks impressive pass rush. The bad news for the Seahawks is that Russell Wilson only threw for 160 yards last week. The worse news is that it was his season-high. The honeymoon period is fading, and it's only a matter of time until Matt Flynn gets a chance in Seattle.

The Pick: Panthers (-3)

Matt and I go way back.

Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings

This is a test for Christian Ponder and the surprising Vikings. Now that people are starting to believe in them, can they dominate a game that they're supposed to win? Don't sleep on my man Matt Hasselbeck (story to explain the photo on the left found here).

The Pick: Titans (+5.5)

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

Now that I'm no longer living in Boston, this is the first Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady game where I haven't heard the Pats fans boasting that one of the greatest players of all time is a bad quarterback. I think New England will win, but not without some classic drama in the final minutes.

The Pick: Broncos (+6.5)

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers

Since the Bills last won on the west coast in 2004, they're 0-4 with an average 41-14 losing margin in the Pacific Time Zone. Good Ryan Fitzpatrick leads the league in touchdowns. Bad Ryan Fitzpatrick leads the league in interceptions.

The Pick: 49ers (-9.5)

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints

I no longer believe that the Saints can turn the loss of Sean Payton into a positive. But I still believe that the hardest place to play in the NFL is the Superdome in a night game. Last season New Orleans was 4-0 in prime-time home games, winning by an average score of 47 to 16.

The Pick: Saints (-4)

Houston Texans at New York Jets

My satellite radio broke this weekend, which means that this entire week I've had to get my sports talk fix from WFAN. I am not a fan of local talk radio. If I have to hear one more Yankee fan moan about playing their first playoff game on the road, I might just swerve into a barrier.

If the hysterics of the hosts and callers are any indication, the Jets are doomed. The offense is the worst in NFL history, the team will be lucky to go 4-12 this season, and Rex Ryan should just resign now to save himself the dignity of getting fired in three months. Let's just ignore the fact Ryan has not had a losing season as a head coach. And since when has a subpar offense ever stopped the Jets from being a competitive team? The Texans are the best team in the NFL right now, but the Jets won't lay down in this game. I miss NFL Radio.

The Pick: Jets (+8)

Happy football, everyone.

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.

Odds found here.

Image found here  and here.