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| How important is an elite running back in a quarterback-dominated league? |
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
The frontrunner for this award changed on a weekly basis throughout the season, and in the end it was a dark horse who eked past the favorites at the wire. Andrew Luck would win this race in most other years, but his high interception mark and poor accuracy drops him from contention. It's tough to separate Wilson and Robert Griffin III with statistics alone. Wilson has thrown six more touchdowns, Griffin has thrown five fewer interceptions. Griffin ranks third in our PFF QB Rating and second in our Accuracy Percentage, Wilson ranks fourth in both categories. Griffin had nearly twice as many rushing yards, but Wilson stretched the field with nearly twice as many deep-passing yards. I couldn't fault anyone for going with Griffin, but I'm choosing Wilson because he led his team to a better record against tougher competition, going 11-5 overall and 5-1 against teams that finished with a winning record while Griffin went 9-6 and 3-3, respectively. Perhaps we can just give the award to the winner of this week's playoff game?
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Casey Hayward, CB, Green Bay Packers
Some will see Luke Kuechly's league-leading 164 tackles and hand him this award, but that would be mistaking activity for productivity. Kuechly had a dreadful September and his eagerness to make a play often got him in trouble in coverage, where he surrendered the seventh-most receiving yards of any inside linebacker. Without the first-round hype, Hayward terrorized opposing quarterbacks by allowing zero touchdowns and snagging six interceptions. QBs had a 31.1 passer rating when throwing at him, the lowest mark for any starting cornerback in the league.
Comeback Player of the Year: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos
My least favorite award because the criteria is so vague and up to interpretation. I still can't believe the season Adrian Peterson had after tearing his ACL just over one year ago. Nevertheless, I think we all knew that AP would eventually return to his elite production eventually. On the other hand, as Manning missed an entire season with a neck injury, there was a point where we thought that he'd never play another snap in the NFL. Instead, he's returned to his usual spot as one of the best players the game has ever seen.
Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians, Indianapolis Colts
It's demanding enough to coach in the NFL without having an outside misfortune turn your organizational structure upside-down. Arians seamlessly took the reins from Chuck Pagano and went 9-3 to launch the Colts to a nine-win improvement from last season's 2-14 season.
Offensive Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
No player captivated us more with his weekly performances than Peterson. What he did, particularly in a league that has drifted away from workhorse running backs, will forever be remembered in NFL history.
Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans
With a nod to Von Miller and Geno Atkins, it's been years since we've seen a player single-handedly wreck offensive gameplans like Watt did this season. He recorded 52 defensive stops against and 76 QB pressures against the pass. He disrupted 14.3% of the plays that he faced. Amazing.
MVP: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos
The MVP case for Peterson goes something like this: AP rushed for 2,097 yards with a bad quarterback, and the Vikings made the playoffs...therefore, he must have carried them there. My two problems with that argument are: 1) Percy Harvin was the Vikings' MVP for the first half of the season, and 2) Minnesota went just 6-4 when Peterson rushed for over 100 yards. Thanks to Harvin's heroics, the Vikings started 4-2 in their first six games, as Peterson broke the 100-yard mark just once. And in some of Peterson's best games (a 182-yard day in Seattle, a 210-yard effort in Green Bay), Minnesota lost by two scores. When I'm choosing the best player in a league of over 2,000, I'd like to have someone who was a factor in every week of the season rather than just the last 10. And despite the Sunday morning analysts crowing that teams have to "establish the run," the fact is that having an elite running back just doesn't matter much in today's passing league. Just ask the Green Bay Packers, who have won 33 of the 43 games since they last had a 100-yard rusher.
The MVP is a regular season award, and in the regular season Peyton Manning took an 8-8 team that backed into the playoffs last year and turned them into 13-3 Super Bowl favorite with home-field advantage. Aaron Rodgers has slightly better numbers, but Manning gets an extra boost for succeeding on a new team while still managing his arm strength. It's a quarterback-driven league, and Manning has been the best one this season.
Last Week: 9-7
Regular Season: 132-119-5
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
Houston beat Cincinnati twice last season with T.J. Yates at the helm, but much has changed since then. Take away a bad second half against the Cowboys, and the Bengals have been flawless for the past eight games. The Texans, meanwhile, have fumbled away a first-round bye for the second year in a row. Watt is going to have his impact, but Atkins will make life equally hard for the Texans offense. The difference will come on the outside. Andre Johnson burned the Bengals for 90 yards and the game-clinching touchdown in last year's Wild Card victory, but Cincinnati was without Leon Hall, their best corner. Jonathan Joseph allowed A.J. Green just four catches for 42 yards on nine targets, collecting an interception and pass defensed. But Green has evolved into one of the league's best receivers while Joseph has had an inconsistent season.
The Pick: Bengals (+4)
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Of the six 2,000-yd rushers before Adrian Peterson, four made the playoffs. Terrell Davis carried his dominating 1998 season into January, rushing for 199 yards and two touchdowns in a 38-3 throttling of the Miami Dolphins. But Eric Dickerson, Barry Sanders, and Jamal Lewis averaged 69 yards while their offenses struggled in a loss. The Packers will sell out to ensure that Peterson doesn't beat them again, and Ponder hasn't been able to consistently put the team on his back this season. As for Vikings defense, I think Antoine Winfield's injury will hurt them against Green Bay's dangerous slot receivers.
The Pick: Packers (-7.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
One storybook has to end this Sunday, whether it be the Colts' inspirational fight for Chuck Pagano or Ray Lewis' final quest for his second Super Bowl ring. The Ravens have lost four of their last five games, but Joe Flacco had one of the best performances of his career in a Week 16 blowout of the New York Giants. The Colts have won five of their last six, but many of their victories this season have been close calls against mediocre competition. The vaunted Ravens defense has fallen far, but its experience and disguised blitzes can confuse the turnover-prone Luck and his shaky offensive line. And if Jim Caldwell is smart enough to ride Ray Rice, he'll have a lot of opportunities against the league's 29th-ranked run defense.
The Pick: Ravens (-6.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins
What a fitting Wild Card finale for The Year of the Rookie QB. No team since Week 9 has been able to stop the Redskins' zone-read attack, but few teams have the defensive talent of the Seahawks. With Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner on the outside, Seattle will have the luxury of devoting more defenders to slow Griffin and Alfred Morris. It's noteworthy that Cam Newton's worst game this season came in Week 5, when the Seahawks held him to 183 total yards on 29 passes and seven rushes. DeAngelo Hall had a clutch performance on Sunday against Dez Bryant, but he still surrendered the second-most yards in coverage of any cornerback in the league this season. Ultimately, Wilson will find more openings in Washington's secondary than Griffin will find in Seattle's.
The Pick: Seahawks (-2.5)
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