I've been torn on this game for the past two weeks. On the one hand, the 49ers have the better roster. Their defense alone could carry them to a victory by itself, but once you throw in Jim Harbaugh's offensive genius and Colin Kaepernick's dual-threat ability, it's tough to imagine San Francisco losing to anyone right now. But judging by recent history, the Ravens can't be dismissed. They've won a lot of close games, have looked dreadful as recently as Week 15, and really have no business even being here. But that's the exact same thing you could have said about last year's New York Giants, who, like Baltimore, transformed themselves to the point where you could throw the first 15 weeks of the season out the window.
I've gone back and forth long enough. I'm picking the 49ers. As flawed as last year's Giants were, they had a huge mismatch that the Patriots couldn't overcome: Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham versus the dreadful New England secondary. That was their biggest advantage going into the game, and that's what they ultimately used to win the title. I look at this game, and I see no such mismatch that favors the Ravens. "Hey diddle diddle, Ray Rice up the middle" will find NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis waiting for him. Bryant McKinnie and Michael Oher are going to have their hands full with Aldon Smith, Justin Smith, and Ahmad Brooks. As nice as the Ray Lewis story is, he's struggled mightily on the field this postseason (-6.5 PFF grade). And the Ravens secondary isn't going to easily shut down Kaepernick and Michael Crabtree (who I've already said has become one of the best receivers in the NFL). The biggest difference for the Ravens on this run has been their deep passing, but this 49er secondary will be the best Baltimore has seen this postseason.
Every pick I've seen for the Ravens involves some talk of destiny or momentum, but give me the better team. Without a huge advantage in any matchup, I don't think the Ravens will win this championship.
The Pick: 49ers (-4)
Update: Since it is the Super Bowl, I'll give you my final score: 49ers 27, Ravens 17, with a late David Akers field goal putting it out of reach for Baltimore.
Last Week: 3-6-1
Regular Season: 132-119-5
Follow me at @PFF_Pete
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