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| I only trust one of these QBs on Sunday, and it's not the one with the better playoff record. |
Last Week: 0-4
Playoffs: 3-5
Regular Season: 132-119-5
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
As a BC alumnus and someone who dislikes judging a player's career on the outcome of three games, I was happy to see Matt Ryan throw the monkey off his back in his final drive against the Seahawks. But I was troubled that his defense put him in that position to begin with. In the second half, Atlanta's D struggled to contain Russell Wilson's mobility, just as they struggled in two meetings with Cam Newton in the regular season. If Colin Kaepernick is even half as good as he was against the Packers, the 49ers will still move the ball on Sunday. And after I just spent a couple of days breaking down Michael Crabtree's development into one of the most complete wide receivers in the league (you can read my PFF article here), I'm convinced that he'll have a much bigger impact than the one reception and three yards that he gained in last year's NFC Championship.
With that being said, the Falcons offense will need to put up points to match the 49ers. San Francisco's cornerbacks aren't talented enough to stop Roddy White and Julio Jones, but its pass rush is good enough to get to Ryan before he can find his receivers. Justin Smith wasn't as disruptive against the Packers passing game as he normally is, but Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks combined for 12 QB pressures and a hit on Aaron Rodgers. Few teams feed off their crowd as much as the Falcons, who have a 34-6 home record under Ryan. And Eli Manning may be the only quarterback who I'd trust more in a two-minute drill than Matty Ice right now. I'm sticking with Atlanta, but given the matchup, a Falcons victory would definitely be an upset.
The Pick: Falcons (+4)
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
In five of the last six seasons, a team that played in Wild Card Weekend made it to the Super Bowl. The only such team remaining in this year's playoffs is the Ravens, and I did not expect them to even make it this far. After a 9-2 start, Baltimore lost four of its last five games and had almost no momentum coming into the playoffs. A victory over the "happy to be here" Colts at M&T Bank Stadium was expected, but I didn't see them even keeping it close against the Broncos in Denver. They rode Joe Flacco's hot hand and an inspired defense to pull off an upset for the ages, but I do not trust either enough to think they can replicate that in Foxboro.
In his Divisional Weekend review from earlier this week, Bill Barnwell warns about the danger of putting too much stock in a quarterback's record in the playoffs. Is Peyton Manning a choke-artist because Rahim Moore didn't know how to keep a receiver in front of him on a desperation drive? Is Matt Ryan now a legitimate quarterback because Matt Bryant could hit a 49-yard field goal? Flacco is going to get a huge contract this offseason on the back of his 7-4 record in the playoffs. But is he a clutch quarterback who rises to the moment, or an inconsistent one who just happens to peak a couple in January? Flacco has had playoff performances, like the Ravens' 2009 Wild Card upset in New England, where he earned a -1.7 PFF grade and won on the backs of his defense and Ray Rice. And he's also had ones, like last year's AFC Championship, where he earned a +5.1 grade and was let down by his teammates. He's had four games this season with a PFF grade of +3.0 or better, and five with a grade of -3.0 or worse. The Ravens probably need an epic Flacco performance to win this game, and they certainly could get one. But he's just as capable of having a down performance that sinks their playoff hopes for yet another year.
Ray Lewis' "last ride," as he likes to call it, has certainly inspired his teammates to make some big plays. But beyond the emotions and the nice story is the fact that the Hall of Fame linebacker has played poorly on the field. His -4.7 grade against the Colts was the lowest mark of any Raven defender, and he surrendered eight catches for 97 yards against the Broncos. He's been a liability in coverage, and that will kill the Ravens against a Patriots offense that thrives on short passes into the middle of the defense. Lewis returning to the Super Bowl is a nice story, but betting on him and Flacco to come through takes a lot of faith. I'd rather have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
The Pick: Patriots (-7.5)
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