Super Bowl XLV Pick

The Storylines

As with every Super Bowl, there's a lot on the line this Sunday.  Ben Roethlisberger could stake his claim as one of the best quarterbacks of all-time.  Hines Ward is trying to beef up his Hall of Fame resume.  Aaron Rodgers could become one of the best signal-callers in the game today while permanently vindicating Ted Thompson from the 2008 Brett Favre split.  Additionally, Mike Tomlin could become the youngest head coach to ever win two Super Bowls, while Mike McCarthy looks for his first.

Fact That Might Surprise You

No team has rushed for over 100 yards in the last three Super Bowls.  Much is being made of the Pittsburgh run defense, and rightfully so, as their performance this year has been historically good.  Fortunately for the Packers, they don't rely on their running game for their offense to move.  I see a lot of similarities between this year's Packers and last year's Saints, who won Super Bowl XLIV with only 51 rushing yards and beat the Steelers earlier this year with only 30 yards on the ground.

The Matchup

The more I think about this game, the more reasons I find to pick the Steelers.  Their well-balanced offense gives them a chance to win, even if Big Ben struggles.  If Rodgers struggles, Green Bay will lose.  The Steeler defense can take away the Packers run and play action game, which served Rodgers well in the NFC Championship.  The fact that Pittsburgh has been here twice in the previous five seasons gives them an edge in preparation.  And I believe that Tomlin, Dick Lebeau, and the Steeler coaching staff is significantly better than McCarthy and his crew.

So why am I picking the Packers?  Because despite the evidence above, I can't get last year's Super Bowl out of my head.  I saw the Saints, with a stellar passer and an excellent group of receivers, going against a Hall of Fame quarterback on a team that had a big edge in postseason experience.  I chose the Colts to win that game because I thought that Peyton Manning would pick apart an aggressive defense and New Orleans' lack of a running game would doom them.  And yet Drew Brees and Sean Payton pulled it off.

As I said above, the 2010 Packers remind me a lot of the 2009 Saints.  And even as I'm writing this now, my head is still telling me to take the Steelers.  But fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.  I think that an opportunistic Packer defense will take advantage of a couple Roethlisberger mistakes and Rodgers will exploit a shaky Pittsburgh secondary to carry the rest.

The Prediction

Packers 27, Steelers 24

Image found here.