My NFL Week 2 Picks

Remember how last year's champs started their season?

I tweeted this last night, but I've seen enough articles warning "Don't overreact to Week 1!" that I'm starting to wonder if anyone is really overreacting to Week 1. If you do happen to be one of these mysterious people preparing to bet their mortgage on a 49ers-Broncos Super Bowl, heed the following:

- Five of the last 10 Super Bowl Champions had lost their first regular season game. 
- Two of those teams (the 2001 Patriots and 2007 Giants) started 0-2.
- The 2003 Patriots cut their Pro Bowl captain, Lawyer Milloy, and then lost their first game to the Bills, his new team, 31-0. They lost only one other game the rest of the season.
- The '07 Giants surrendered 80 points in their first two games. They allowed 85 in their four playoff victories.
- At this time last year, Eli Manning had lost his two most consistent receivers, Kevin Boss and Steve Smith, and had thrown for no touchdowns and an interception in a 14-point loss to the Redskins.

Remember your history. It's a long season. 

Last Week: 7-9

Regular Season: 7-9 

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Blaine Gabbert playing well against the woeful Vikings' secondary is nothing to write home about. Playing well against the Texans defense would be.

The Pick: Texans (-7)

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Brandon Weeden's 0 TD, 4 INT performance is the type of game that Andy Dalton would have had if defenses weren't hampered by last year's lockout.

The Pick: Bengals (-6.5)

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins

There is only one team in the NFL worse than the Raiders right now, and that's the one Oakland is playing this week.

The Pick: Raiders (-2.5)

Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles

This will be the first game that the Eagles will truly miss their All-Pro left tackle, Jason Peters.

The Pick: Ravens (+2.5)

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

If the Bills are going to earn the playoff berth that I think they will, then this home opener against a low-powered offense is the type of game they need to win.

The Pick: Bills (-3.5)

When you sign a RB to a massive contract, 

he should probably get more than six carries a game.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

I'm not off the Panthers bandwagon after their uninspired loss to the Buccaneers. I was just never on it to begin with. A running QB and a stable of costly running backs only gets you far in fantasy football.

The Pick: Saints (-2.5)

Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts

If Andrew Luck can't dissect the hapless Minnesota secondary, then he may have a tougher rookie season that I expected.

The Pick: Colts (+2)

Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots

As I wrote after my tape study of their game against the Titans, the Patriots rookie defenders have already made their presence felt. They won't need to repeat that performance to bottle up Kevin Kolb.

The Pick: Patriots (-13.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

Click here to see my in-depth Pro Football Focus preview of this game. I expect the Giants defensive line to do what they failed to do in Week 1, and make the difference in a close game.

The Pick: Buccaneers (+7)

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers

Tennessee defensive end Kamerion Wimbley notched four sacks as a Raider the last time he was in San Diego. The Chargers' left tackle position isn't any more stable now than it was back then.

The Pick:Titans (+6.5)

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

Rex Ryan has the freedom to design all of his blitz packages because of the security that comes with Darrelle Revis. The Jets defense becomes drastically more limited without him.

The Pick: Steelers (-4)

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams

These two young defenses made Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford look very ordinary last week. In a low-scoring game, I'll go with the team with more playmakers.

The Pick: Redskins (-3.5)

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks

Dallas is the smart pick here, coming off a big win and an extra four days of rest. But Seattle is one of the few stadiums where home field advantage still applies, and that crowd is going to be fired up to see their new franchise QB.

The Pick: Seahawks (+3.5)

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

I have to give the 49ers a HAND for the most impressive win of Week 1. Perhaps I didn't give them a fair SHAKE when I said they'd miss the playoffs. (See what I did there? Eh? Eh??? Eh.) Detroit's secondary will plague the Lions this entire season.

The Pick: 49ers (-7)

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons

Revis was the only CB to receive a better grade last season than Brent Grimes. The Falcons will miss him, especially against a top tier QB like Peyton Manning. 

The Pick: Broncos (+3)

Happy football, everyone.

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.

Images found here and here.