Previewing The NFL Season, and My Week 1 Picks

You either believe Peyton Manning will return to his old form, or you don't. I do.

Earlier this week, I revealed my playoffs and Super Bowl predictions. Here they are again:

AFC Division Winners: Patriots, Steelers, Titans, Broncos

AFC Wild Cards: Bills, Texans

NFC Division Winners: Giants, Packers, Saints, Seahawks

NFC Wild Cards: Eagles, Falcons

AFC Championship: Patriots over Broncos

NFC Championship: Falcons over Packers

Super Bowl Champion: Patriots over Falcons

With no games to judge any team by yet, I'm giving my Week 1 picks with my thoughts on each team's outlook heading into the 2012 season. 

2011 Regular Season: 122-124-10

2011 Playoffs: 11-1

 

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears

I was worried that Andrew Luck was walking into a hopeless rookie season, but the Colts have smartly surrounded him with weapons like Reggie Wayne, Coby Fleener, and Dwayne Allen that will help him succeed right off the bat. The Bears finally addressed their moribund receiving group with Brandon Marshall, but I can't trust a defense whose four best players (Julius Peppers, Charles Tillman, Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs) are all over the age of 31.

The Pick: Colts (+10)

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

Michael Vick's health issues have been well-documented, but the Eagles also are without the best offensive lineman in the league last season, Jason Peters. Still, Andy Reid is too good of a coach to be kept out of the playoffs for two straight seasons. I've ripped the Browns for leaving their young quarterbacks out to dry with no wide receivers to throw to, so I'm glad that they aggressively snatched up Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft. Still, having a quarter of your roster devoted to rookies leaves little hope for success this season. 

The Pick: Eagles (-9.5)

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions

Jeff Fisher's reputation is a bit overinflated, but expectations don't get much lower than they do in St. Louis. Simply avoiding another rash of injuries will bring some improvement to the Rams. It worries me that Detroit lost two of its three top cornerbacks on a secondary that was bad to begin with. The Lions complete lack of a run game puts too much pressure on the shoulders of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. 

The Pick: Lions (-7.5)

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

(Note: I wrote a preview for this game for Pro Football Focus. In it, I explore Stevie Johnson's success against Darrelle Revis and the Jets' changes at offensive tackle. You can read it here.)

Bills fans are giddy to see Mario Williams in action, but I'm just as excited to see the healthy return of Pro Football Focus' 2010 Defensive Player of the Year, Kyle Williams. With their improvements on defense and a weak schedule, I like Buffalo's chances to secure its first postseason berth since 1999. Try as I might, I cannot imagine a scenario where the Mark Sanchez/Tim Tebow/Santonio Holmes dynamic ends well for the Jets. 

The Pick: Bills (+3) 

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints

I like everything I've seen of Robert Griffin III, but I question whether he can succeed under Washington's current regime. Some say Mike Shanahan is a Hall of Fame coach, but he has won one playoff game in 12 seasons since John Elway retired. I've already written that the Saints bounty suspensions will not hurt the team as much as everyone thinks they will. In fact, I expect New Orleans to turn their misfortune into a powerful rallying point. 

The Pick: Saints (-7.5)

 

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

By signing Brandon Lloyd and committing their draft to their defense, the Patriots addressed their two biggest holes this offseason. The offensive line has a lot of questions, but an easy schedule will make anything short of a playoff bye a disappointment in New England. I love the strength of the Titans' offensive and defensive lines, and I really love the odds of Chris Johnson returning to his old form. Unless he's the laziest player in NFL history, he can carry Tennessee to a surprising division title. 

The Pick: Patriots (-5)

 

Blaine Gabbert has his GM's job in his hands.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings

I understand why General Manager Gene Smith has to stick with Blaine Gabbert after trading up in last year's draft to pick him, and I believe that it's okay for a rookie QB to struggle, so long as he shows some glimpses of greatness. Unfortunately, there was no point last season when I ever thought that Gabbert could one day become a competent quarterback. Speaking of second-year quarterbacks, I liked the promise Christian Ponder showed as a rookie, but I have little optimism for a sub-par secondary in a division with two of the most potent offenses in the league. 

The Pick:Jaguars (+3.5)

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

Cameron Wake and Karlos Dansby anchor an underrated Dolphin defense that was sixth in the league in points allowed last season. But with a rookie coach, rookie quarterback, and the worst receiving corps in the league, Miami is destined for another top 10 draft pick at the end of the season. I have enough faith in Gary Kubiak's zone blocking scheme and Wade Phillips' defense to believe that the Texans will survive the loss of Eric Winston and Mario Williams. Unless they crack under the unfamiliar pressure of being a top dog, the Texans' deep roster should carry them far this season.  

The Pick: Texans(-12)

Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs

People are dismissing the Falcons this year simply because they're unsexy. That would concern me if this were college football, but style points mean squat in the NFL. Atlanta is a solid team with a maturing quarterback and the best wide receiver tandem and cornerback group in the league. On the other hand, Kansas City has become a trendy pick among analysts, probably because last year's AFC West title defense was derailed by injuries. But they weren't the strongest division winners to begin with, enjoying abnormal special teams success and an easy 2010 schedule. They can't count on either of those this year. 

The Pick: Falcons (-3)

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Hope springs eternal with Cam Newton, but I don't understand how GM Marty Hurney can have a bad defense in a passing league and decide to blow all his cap dollars on running backs. As I wrote in my Buccaneers Preview on Pro Football Focus, I like the changes Tampa made in the offseason, but their defense has a long way to go to return to respectability. 

The Pick: Panthers (-2.5)

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

The Seahawks' young secondary should give them a huge advantage against the QB-challenged NFC West. Although I still think Matt Flynn's time will come, Russell Wilson may be the better choice now for an offense that is lacking in playmakers. John Skelton didn't win the Cardinals starting QB job as much as he didn't lose it. Trading for Kevin Kolb may be the move that ultimately costs Ken Whisenhunt his job this season. 

The Pick: Seahawks (-2.5)

Can Jim Harbaugh's troops continue to protect the ball?

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

The 49ers were the toughest omission from my playoff picks, but I don't think their turnover success from last year is sustainable. Only one QB in NFL history, Tom Brady in 2010, had fewer interceptions on as many pass attempts as Alex Smith had last season. San Francisco's +28 turnover margin was the second-best in NFL history. Unless Jim Harbaugh is the greatest ball control coach we've ever seen, that won't happen again this year. All season long, the Packers defense didn't mind giving up tons of yards to create some turnovers. Then they had a minus-3 turnover margin against the Giants in the playoffs, and their title repeat went kaput. Even a marginal improvement on defense will give Aaron Rodgers the leeway he needs to mount another title run. 

The Pick:Packers (-5)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

An offensive line that is still shaky after rookie guard David DeCastro's injury means that the Steelers will once again thrive when Ben Roethlisberger is healthy and panic when he's inevitably out for a couple of games. To those who say that the Broncos roster has too many holes for Peyton Manning to fix, I ask: Did you see the Colts last year?! If Peyton could carry that team to double-digit wins for nine straight seasons, he can overcome a difficult schedule in a wide open division. 

The Pick: Broncos (-2)

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Andy Dalton scuffled to a 65.3 passer rating in four games against the Steelers and Ravens, but the Bengals still made the playoffs on the back of an 8-0 record against teams that finished under .500. The schedule will not be as forgiving this year. The Ravens are always contenders, but I don't see how they improved this offseason. Losing the Defensive Player of the Year, Terrell Suggs, is a huge blow, and Ray Lewis and Ed Reed can't outrun Father Time forever. 

The Pick:Ravens (-6.5)

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Philip Rivers' 4-1 career record against Peyton Manning bodes well for the Chargers' chances in the AFC West, and I believe that the San Diego QB's regression last year had more to do with bad luck than a decline in skill. But left tackle Marcus McNeill's neck injury was a huge blow to the Chargers, and they have struggled to find his replacement. The Raiders are struggling to stay competitive while wiping their roster clean of all the misguided moves Al Davis made in his final years. Their rebuilding project will take a few seasons. 

The Pick: Chargers (+1.5)

Happy football, everyone.

Follow me at @BostonGiant.

Odds found here.

Images found here, here, and here.