My Week 13 Thursday Night Football Pick: Saints at Falcons

Mike Nolan could be the best coaching hire of the offseason.

The Falcons are 10-1, which makes me happy because they were my Week 1 pick to win the NFC Championship game. I love what defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is doing there. I've broken down film from this year's Falcons team and last year's, and comparing former DC Brian Van Gorder's scheme to the changes that Nolan has installed is like going from checkers to chess.

However, the Falcons have been playing with fire a bit too much, going 7-1 in games decided by one score. The Saints are desperate and have won the last four games in this rivalry. This one again will be close, and I think this will be a rare time where a break doesn't go Atlanta's way.

The Pick: Saints (+3.5)

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.
Odds found here.