Pete's Picks: NFL Week 13

Finally, a game worthy of Monday night.

After years of averaging a 50% turnover rate in its playoff field, this may finally be the season that the NFL goes according to plan. In the AFC, the Saints and Lions are the only 2011 postseason teams that are longshots to return. The Falcons, 49ers, Giants, and Packers are all favorites to clinch playoff spots. The AFC is even more settled, with the Texans, Ravens, Broncos, and Patriots comfortably in position to repeat as division champions. If the Steelers fall out of the wild card spot, they'll probably be overtaken by the Bengals, yet another 2011 playoff team. For a change, the NFL may not be able to trumpet the parity horn this January.

Last week: 10-6
Regular season: 91-81-4

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills

I named Chad Henne my Best Offensive Sub in this week's Next Man Up after his second straight impressive game. His solid play could earn him the Jaguars' starting quarterback job in 2013, or at the very least hold off the awful Tim Tebow rumors for another few weeks. 

The Pick: Jaguars (+6)

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears

This may be the last week we get to enjoy the best cornerback tandem in the league, Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. I don't think they'll disappoint.

The Pick: Seahawks (+3.5)

Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions

It should come as no surprise that Ndamukong Suh denied any wrongdoing for his most recent Thanksgiving foot-fault. I bet that if you gave him a lie detector test, you'd see that he honestly thinks that all of his hits over the years were legal. 

The Pick: Colts (+5.5) 

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers 

If the Vikings win this game, we could be destined for a Week 17 rematch at the Metrodome for one of the NFC wild card spots. But given their brutal remaining schedule (vs Rams, at Bears, at Texans), I don't have much hope for Minnesota surviving that long. 

The Pick: Packers (-7.5) 

Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs 

I hope the Chiefs learned a lesson after this season: you shouldn't give a coach an extension because of one big win, even if it was over the 14-0 Packers.

The Pick: Panthers (-3)

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Tom Brady has won 11 straight December games, by an average of 17 points.

The Pick: Patriots (-7.5)

Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets

It's hard to be optimistic about the Jets after their Thanksgiving night loss, but their remaining schedule is incredibly easy. After Sunday, they play at the Jaguars, at the Titans, vs the Chargers, at the Bills. Not a team better than 4-7 among them.

The Pick: Jets (-4.5)

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams

While his two starts have been marvelous, Colin Kaepernick struggled to generate offense in relief against the Rams in Week 10. I think he'll fare better with a full week to prepare for them.

The Pick: 49ers (-7)

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

I don't understand why offensive coordinator Chris Palmer lost his job this week. The Tennessee offense is 19th in points per game and 24th in yards per game. Not great, but not awful for a team who lost its starting quarterback for six weeks.

The Pick: Texans (-6.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos

I love what the Bucs have done this season, but I've been saying for weeks that the Broncos are the best team in the NFL.

The Pick: Broncos (-7)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Ben Roethlisberger is likely out again, which means more Charlie Batch. Hide your kids, hide your wife.

The Pick: Ravens (N/A)

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders

The Browns have been very competitive versus tough competition in the past month. The Raiders have not.

The Pick: Browns (N/A)

Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers

The Bengals have won their last three games by an average of over 21 points. The Norv Turner era in San Diego ended on Ray Rice's 4th-and-29 conversion.

The Pick: Bengals (-2) 

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

For a breakdown of Bryce Brown, Dez Bryant, and my secret love of romantic comedies, click here for my PFF Eagles-Cowboys preview. I liked the fight I saw from Philadelphia on Monday night, when they could have easily folded after two quick Panthers touchdowns.

 The Pick: Eagles (+10)

New York Giants at Washington Redskins

The Giants may have given themselves some breathing room after their big Sunday night win over the Packers, but their tough schedule leaves them no room for complacency. It's been a while since Monday Night Football had the best game of the week.

The Pick: Giants (-3) 

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.

Odds found here.

Image found here.