Divisional Round Playoff Picks

A less-than-healthy Justin Smith may not be enough to stop Aaron Rodgers.

Just like last year, a ho-hum Wild Card Weekend was salvaged by some drama in the late Sunday game. I'm in the party that thought it was irresponsible of Mike Shanahan to leave his limping quarterback on the field. I understand that Robert Griffin is a warrior and I have no doubt that he lobbied to stay in. But a coach's job is to look past the opinions of his players and do what's in the best interests, both short-term and long-term, of the team. I don't understand how some people gave Shanahan a pass for botching a decision that every baseball manager has to make when his starting pitcher pleas for one more inning. And if Shanahan decided that leaving Griffin in was indeed the best thing for the Redskins, then he should have owned up to that. Instead, he hid behind some "he told me it was okay and I believed him" defense, shifting responsibility from himself to his player. Shanahan is often referred to as a Hall of Fame coach, despite the fact that he's won one playoff game in the 14 years since John Elway retired. If his bad decision ends up hurting his franchise quarterback's career, he may be waiting a long time for the second.

Last Week: 3-1
Regular Season: 132-119-5

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos

Disclaimer: Back in Week 1,  I chose the Patriots over the Broncos and Falcons over the Packers in the Championship games, so my picks are a bit biased towards that outcome. The pick I'm most confident in is this one. The Broncos haven't lost since starting 2-3, and even their defeats came against teams that are still in the playoff race. Towards the end of the season it seemed like Peyton Manning was merely tinkering with his offense every Sunday, trying new plays and different combinations while blowing out the Raiders on the side.  The Ravens couldn't stop Knowshon Moreno or Von Miller in Week 15, and they'll now be relying on two players, Ray Lewis and Michael Oher, whose reputations far outweigh their performance. Manning has had some of the most puzzling playoff defeats of the last decade, but I don't see that happening here.

The Pick: Broncos (-9.5)

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers 

On a unit full of Pro Bowlers, Justin Smith is the foundation of the 49ers defense. I took a look at how his loss has affected the 49ers defense, particularly Aldon Smith, in this week's Next Man Up. I'm guessing that, even if he is active, the Pro Bowl defensive end won't be nearly as effective as San Francisco needs him to be. If the 49ers give Aaron Rodgers the time they gave Russell Wilson, they're going to give up a lot of points. And I don't think Colin Kaepernick can match him against a Packers secondary that is much better than advertised.

The Pick: Packers (+3)

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

This is as bad a matchup as the Falcons could get. Atlanta has the best receiving duo in the league with Roddy White and Julio Jones, but they're going against the best cornerback tandem in the league in Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. The Falcons defense is weakest against the run, and now it has to try to stop Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson. My brain is telling me to pick the Seahawks, but my gut is telling me that the Falcons are going to disappoint every expert's upset special. People love to make black-and-white determinations about the NFL, no matter how small the sample size is. Matt Ryan has lost all three of his playoff games, therefore...MATT RYAN CAN'T WIN IN THE PLAYOFFS. What is more likely? A young quarterback who already has 15 career fourth-quarter comebacks inexplicably freezes up once the calendar turns to January? Or that his team lost to three good teams, the 2008 Cardinals, 2010 Packers, and 2011 Giants, who all went on to win the NFC Championship? Ryan and the Falcons doesn't deserve a monkey on their backs, but I think they'll get it off on Sunday regardless.

The Pick: Falcons (-2.5)

Houston Texans at New England Patriots

You can read my Pro Football Focus preview to get my full analysis of this game. Aside from my belief that Antonio Smith and the Texans' running game will fare better than they did in Week 14, the Texans are too good of a team for their season to end in a blowout in New England. All three losses in their season-ending skid came against teams that made the playoffs, and their defense was absolutely stifling in their Wild Card win. I still think the Patriots will move on, but not without a fight.

The Pick: Texans (+9.5)

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Odds found here

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