What a crazy night. My thoughts on the first round of the 76th annual NFL draft:
1) Atlanta's Shortsightedness Last night, I declared that I would take a shot if the Falcons moved up 20 picks to take a receiver. That was a bad move for me; it was a worse move for Atlanta. The Falcons have a better roster than most teams, but they're not without holes. Thomas Dimitroff went all-in on a prospect that he thinks is the final piece to a championship puzzle, and mortgaged his future in the process. When has that move ever worked in the NFL?
2) Cleveland's Future Dynasty? Last night might have been the birth of a new era in Cleveland. In 1989, the Cowboys traded Herschel Walker to the Vikings for a boatload of draft picks, which they turned into a dynasty. In 1995, the Browns traded their top pick to the 49ers for two first-round picks, a third, and a fourth. The Niners took J.J. Stokes, and the next year the Browns (now Ravens) got Ray Lewis and an eventual Super Bowl. Even the 2008 Jared Allen trade looks bad now, as the Vikings are desperate for youth and the Chiefs are on the rise. The bottom line is, in a mega-deal like this, I'd rather be on the side getting the picks.
3) Patriots Trade Down...Again For what seems like the 9th straight draft, Bill Belichick had two first round picks, picked an unexciting player with one, dealt the other one away, and now has two first round picks next year. And if you're a Patriots fan, you can't be happier. Belichick's biggest strength is his knowledge of his weaknesses. Scouting is necessary, but he can't truly evaluate a player until he gets him onto his practice field and into his system. Every year, he has a new group of players to groom. He's quick to discard mistakes, like Chad Jackson, and inevitably finds some contributors, like Aaron Hernandez. With a large quantity of mid-round picks, his draft is never a bust, and his payroll is never too high. New England, unlike Atlanta, does not have "a Christmas feel to it tonight." But the Patriots fans can count on having that feel at the time it's supposed to be there - in December.
Given the uncertainty surrounding the league right now, I think we're all looking forward to a football event that doesn't involve judges and PR stunts. Without further adeiu, my prediction for the 76th annual NFL draft:
1. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn I wonder if Newton's stock would have been so high had Michael Vick not had a near-MVP season; I sense he is the player all the analysts think of when they say Newton is "high risk, high reward." History has not favored running quarterbacks, with Steve Young being the only one to ever win a Super Bowl. I don't see Newton reversing that trend.
2. Denver Broncos - Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama From Keith Hamilton to Ma'ake Kemoeatu, John Fox's defenses have always had a run-stopping defensive tackle. Nick Fairley is the better pass-rusher, but Fox will take the safer Dareus to anchor his line for years to come.
3. Buffalo Bills - Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M Chan Gailey got plenty of quality time with Miller at the Senior Bowl, where the linebacker took Defensive MVP honors. The Bills are in a molasses-like transition between the 4-3 and the 3-4, which makes it even more likely that they'll go for a guy like Miller who can play in any system. He'll be the face for a franchise that's been faceless since Bruce Smith left.
4. Cincinnati Bengals - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia I personally think Patrick Peterson should be the pick here, but I have little faith that the Bengals will do the right thing. Mike Brown thinks he can convince Carson Palmer to stay, Marvin Lewis thinks he can salvage Pacman Jones' career, and Chad Ochocinco thinks he can still be an elite NFL receiver while spending 75 hours per week on Twitter.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Patrick Petersen, CB, LSU I think Rod Graves and Ken Whisenhunt will pass on a top rookie quarterback and aim to get a veteran free agent, as they did in 2005. If you think Donovan McNabb or Marc Bulger can't compare to Kurt Warner, well then you've forgotten how low Warner's stock was when the Cardinals got him. Petersen and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will form the best young cornerback tandem in the league.
In some sad news, Hall of Fame fullback Joe Perry passed away today at the age of 84. Having played his last game in 1963, Perry's accomplishments are largely lost on our ESPN-highlight generation, but a look back at the history books reveals the footprint of one of the greatest running backs of all-time. Prior to 1953, only five times had a player surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in a season. Joe Perry then broke that mark two years in a row. When he retired, Perry was the was the NFL's career rushing leader. Although the immortal Jim Brown broke Perry's mark shortly afterwards, no other back was within 3,800 yards of it. In fact, Brown and Perry remain the only two players to average over 5.0 yards per carry with more than 1,000 career attempts. And 47 years later, Perry still holds the San Francisco record for most career rushing yards. The 49ers are known today for the high-powered West Coast passing offense of Bill Walsh, Joe Montana, Steve Young and Jerry Rice. But nearly five decades ago, they had one of the greatest running backs of all-time, and his name was Joe Perry. Here are some vintage Perry highlights, courtesy of NFL Films.
(Note: I can't wait for Thursday night's draft, when we'll actually have football news that doesn't revolve around CBA negotiations and lawsuits. Stay tuned for my mock draft in the next two days.)
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Those familiar with Brandon Marshall won't be surprised to learn that he was stabbed by his wife Friday night. He will be fine, but this is just another incident in a laundry list of off-the-field issues for the immature receiver. Coincidentally, two weeks ago Sports Illustrated published a must-read feature about the 2007 shooting death of Marshall's Broncos teammate, Darrent Williams. In recreating the events of that night, author Thomas Lake illustrates how the antagonism and general idiocy of Marshall and his cousin, Blair Clark, provoked a local gangster to fire the fatal shots into Williams' limo.
Some wonder if this latest incident will be the catalyst that convinces Marshall to clean up his act. I am not among them. Since Williams' death, Marshall has been arrested for domestic violence, pled guilty to drunk driving, and forced a trade out of Denver with his childish antics. If the tragic loss of his friend couldn't convince Marshall to abandon his destructive habits, there's no chance that a trip to the hospital will. Two years ago, Marshall paid tribute to Chris Henry, a spoiled athlete whose reckless ways ultimately caused his premature death. I doubt Marshall sees the irony in the jersey he wore that day. It wouldn't be the first lesson he missed.
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For the dozens of you whose daily happiness relies on my brilliant keystrokes, rest easy. Despite not posting an article in two weeks, I'm not dead. I recently started a new job, which is great for my career and checkbook, but bad for my writing calendar. I'm quickly adjusting to my new schedule and working on some new content as we speak, so keep checking in as we meander through this very tenuous NFL offseason. And as always, thanks for reading.
- Pete
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