Pete's Picks: NFL Week 17

If I were Mike Smith, I'd risk Matt Ryan's health to hold onto some precious late-season momentum.

After the Green Bay Packers went 15-1-and-one-and-done in the playoffs last year, I once again questioned the strategy of playoff-bound teams that bench their starters in Week 17. I wrote:

Aaron Rodgers quickly dismissed questions that he was rusty after not attempting a pass since Christmas night, but he sure missed some throws against the Giants that he usually makes.  Are coaches foolish to rest their starters at the end of the season?  Does momentum matter so much that they should risk injury in a meaningless game to keep their team sharp?

To identify which teams could have lost momentum, I looked back at recent ones that had clinched a bye heading into the final week of the season and a) didn't play their quarterback at all, or b) benched their quarterback at halftime in a game that they eventually lost. It's a bit of a small sample size, but of the 12 such teams since 2005 that qualify, eight lost in their first playoff game. 

In a parity-laden league that makes regular-season records meaningless in January, late-season momentum is a previous commodity. If I were a coach, I'd think twice before throwing mine away.

Last Week: 9-6-1
Regular Season: 123-112-5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

As the only team to have locked up a bye already, the Falcons become this year's test subject for the momentum vs. health debate. Mike Smith says that he'll play to win Sunday. For his sake, I hope he's telling the truth.

The Pick: Falcons (N/A)

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

If it not for J.J. Watt's unbelievable season, Geno Atkins would get my Defensive Player of the Year vote. He's tallied 75 QB pressures this season, the second-highest total of any player in the entire league. That's unheard of for a defensive tackle.

The Pick: Bengals (-2.5)

PFF: 49ers-Seahawks Week 16 Preview

The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks last met on a Thursday night back in Week 7, and combined for 19 points in a game where both teams had more yards rushing than passing. With the way these two offenses have since thrived under their young quarterbacks, we may see more than 19 points in the first quarter. Will the 49ers tarnish the Seahawks’ perfect home record and clinch the NFC West? Or will Pete Carroll earn his first NFL victory over Jim Harbaugh? Here are three matchups that could decide the outcome of Sunday night's big game:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/21/3tfo-49ers-seahawks-week-16/

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Pete's Picks: NFL Week 16

John Kuhn: sometimes, a last name is enough to get you into a Pro Bowl.

Pro Bowl fan ballots have been closed, and yesterday the NFL released the top vote-getters. Reading this list is an exercise in masochism for me, as many fans choose they names that are most-recognizable, rather than those who are most-deserving. I was at least happy to see these guys on the list:

1. J.J. Watt - Last week was the first time this season that I watched Texans game film. If Watt doesn't win the Defensive Player of the Year award, there is no justice.

2. Rob Gronkowski - Even after missing the last few games, Gronk is still arguably the best receiving tight end , and definitely the best blocking tight end.

3. Von Miller - If not for Watt, Miller might get my DPOY vote.

4. Mike Iupati - Some of the biggest Pro Bowl injustices happen on the offensive line, but this 49er guard's devastating run-blocking has earned him this recognition.

5. Justin Smith - It's good to see everyone catch onto the man who we voted the No. 2 player in the NFL last year.

And here were the players who don't deserve to be anywhere near the Pro Bowl:

1. John Kuhn - He's an average blocker who is rewarded because Packers fans like to yell "KUUUUUUUUUUHN."

2. Michael Oher - He's been a disappointment since the Ravens moved him to the blind side this year, but wasn't he the guy who starred in a movie with Sandra Bullock?

3. Logan Mankins - There are better guards who have played more than eight games this season. 

4. Bernard Pollard - I can only assume this is every Patriot-hater's way of rewarding him for hurting Rob Gronkowski in the playoffs last year.

5. Jeff Saturday - He belongs in the Hall of Fame one day, but this year he has the worst PFF run-blocking grade of any center in the league.

Last Week: 9-7
Regular Season: 114-106-4

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions

The Lions have had some tough breaks this year, but losing by 28 to Ryan Lindley's Cardinals was inexcusable.

The Pick: Falcons (-3.5)

Oakland Raiders at Carolina Panthers

I hope this late push by the Panthers saves Ron Rivera's job. Barring a historically-awful season or player mutiny, every coach should be given at least three seasons to prove himself.

The Pick: Panthers (-7.5)

PFF: Next Man Up, Week 15

How have some key backups kept the Redskins and Seahawks rolling towards the playoffs? And could injuries cost the Bears and Giants a spot in the postseason? Take a look in this week's Next Man Up:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/20/next-man-up-week-15/

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Pete's Picks: NFL Week 15

In a 16-team playoff field, the Jets would control their destiny right now.

So the NFL is considering expanding it's playoff to comical NBA/NHL type levels. Let me be the 1,000th person with common sense to tell you that this is a bad idea. As I wrote in one of my first posts two years ago, the playoffs are about excitement, not justice. There's no doubt that adding another two or four playoff teams would create excitement in the first round, as well as in the final weeks of the regular season. 

But you have to draw the line somewhere. Since the NFL expanded to eight divisions in 2002, six teams with a .500 record or worse made the playoffs. If the playoffs had included 16 teams, that number would have been TWENTY-TWO. Twenty-two teams that couldn't even muster a winning record, but still could have a chance to win the Super Bowl in January. Short-term, I see the dollar-signs. Long term, the law of diminishing returns still applies. Even for a product as popular as football.

Last week: 6-10
Regular season: 105-99-4

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons

My PFF preview for this game breaks down the success of the Giants' inside runs, Tony Gonzalez's poor playoff performance at the Meadowlands, and Asante Samuel's startling success versus Eli Manning. Click here for the full analysis. Matt Ryan rarely loses at the Georgia Dome, but I like the Giants' offensive balance more than Atlanta's right now.

The Pick: Giants (+2) 

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens 

Back in Week 8, a friend asked me who the best team in the NFL is, and I chose the Broncos. I haven't changed my mind.

The Pick: Broncos (-3)

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears 

Clay Matthews is back just in the nick of time. Without him, the Packers had no playmakers in their front seven.

The Pick: Packers (-3)

PFF: Giants-Falcons Week 15 Preview

In their past eight meetings, Eli Manning has targeted Asante Samuel 31 times, completing 15 of those passes for 22 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, and a 43.4 passer rating. That's just one of the matchups to focus on when the Giants meet the Falcons on Sunday. Click here for my full preview: 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/14/3tfo-giants-falcons-week-15/

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My Week 15 Thursday Night Football Pick: Bengals at Eagles

There's a chance Geno Atkins takes this game over.

The Bengals could easily make this game a rout. They're the better team, they have more to play for, and they have the most lopsided individual matchup (Defensive Player of the Year candidate Geno Atkins going up against the battered Eagles offensive line). But the Eagles are home on a short week, they've been very competitive lately, and Nick Foles has improved tremendously since I called him the Worst Offensive Sub of Week 11. Cincinnati will win, but they'll have to sweat this one out.

The Pick: Eagles (+5)

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Odds found here.  

Image found here

PFF: Next Man Up, Week 14

Injuries are having an impact on the playoff races throughout the NFL. Here is my weekly breakdown of the subs who succeeded and flopped last week:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/13/next-man-up-week-14/

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PFF: Lions-Packers Week 14 Preview

The Lions have not won at Lambeau Field since George Bush Sr. was president. Here are three key matchups that could decide whether they end the drought:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/07/3tfo-lions-packers-week-14/

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Pete's Picks: NFL Week 14

For the second week straight, the best matchup is on Monday night. It's a Christmas miracle!

Four weeks left in the season, time to see what each team is made of. Probably my least creative intro ever.

Last week: 8-8
Regular season: 99-89-4

St. Louis Rams at Buffalo Bills

Danny Amendola and Stevie Johnson are both nicked up, so this game will be decided by the running backs. At this point of his career, Steven Jackson can't match Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.

The Pick: Bills (-3)

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Back in Week 4, the Panthers couldn't get the final two yards they needed to upset the Falcons in the Georgia Dome. Minutes later, Matt Ryan was telling them to get the f**k off his field. When an 11-1 team faces a 3-9 team with a spread this small, I'll take it.

The Pick: Falcons (-3.5)

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns

The Browns have been sneaky competitive lately, going 4-3 after an 0-5 start. But only one of those victories has come by more than a six points.

The Pick: Chiefs (+6.5)

My Week 14 Thursday Night Football Pick: Broncos at Raiders

I don't see what Philip Wheeler, or his hair, can do to win tonight.

I'm trying to find reasons why the Raiders can win this game. Darren McFadden is coming back from injury. Philip Wheeler, my Best Budget Signing free agent of this year, is having a Pro Bowl-caliber season at strongside linebacker. Home teams get an advantage on Thursday nights from the quick turnaround. But in the end, this is Peyton Manning against a defense that gives up a league-worst 31.3 points per game. I'd be surprised if this game is still competitive in the fourth quarter.

The Pick: Broncos (-10)

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Odds found here
 
Image found here

PFF: Next Man Up, Week 13

How did injuries affect last week's NFL games? This editions of Next Man Up column is headlined by an Eagles offensive backup, but not the one you might expect:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/06/next-man-up-week-13/ 

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Pete's Picks: NFL Week 13

Finally, a game worthy of Monday night.

After years of averaging a 50% turnover rate in its playoff field, this may finally be the season that the NFL goes according to plan. In the AFC, the Saints and Lions are the only 2011 postseason teams that are longshots to return. The Falcons, 49ers, Giants, and Packers are all favorites to clinch playoff spots. The AFC is even more settled, with the Texans, Ravens, Broncos, and Patriots comfortably in position to repeat as division champions. If the Steelers fall out of the wild card spot, they'll probably be overtaken by the Bengals, yet another 2011 playoff team. For a change, the NFL may not be able to trumpet the parity horn this January.

Last week: 10-6
Regular season: 91-81-4

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills

I named Chad Henne my Best Offensive Sub in this week's Next Man Up after his second straight impressive game. His solid play could earn him the Jaguars' starting quarterback job in 2013, or at the very least hold off the awful Tim Tebow rumors for another few weeks. 

The Pick: Jaguars (+6)

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears

This may be the last week we get to enjoy the best cornerback tandem in the league, Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. I don't think they'll disappoint.

The Pick: Seahawks (+3.5)

Pro Football Focus: Next Man Up, Week 12

How did injuries affect last week's NFL games? This week's Next Man Up column highlights how the Jaguars may already have their next franchise quarterback, how the Ravens are surviving with a decimated defense, and how the Steelers and Packers are falling behind in the playoff race without two key playmakers. You can read the full article here:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/29/next-man-up-week-12/

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My Week 13 Thursday Night Football Pick: Saints at Falcons

Mike Nolan could be the best coaching hire of the offseason.

The Falcons are 10-1, which makes me happy because they were my Week 1 pick to win the NFC Championship game. I love what defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is doing there. I've broken down film from this year's Falcons team and last year's, and comparing former DC Brian Van Gorder's scheme to the changes that Nolan has installed is like going from checkers to chess.

However, the Falcons have been playing with fire a bit too much, going 7-1 in games decided by one score. The Saints are desperate and have won the last four games in this rivalry. This one again will be close, and I think this will be a rare time where a break doesn't go Atlanta's way.

The Pick: Saints (+3.5)

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Odds found here.

Pete's Picks: NFL Week 12

Packers-Giants is becoming one of the best rivalries in the league.

I was a half-point away from being perfect on Thanksgiving. The half point always gets ya. 

Last week: 7-6-1
Regular season: 81-75-4

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

In the last three years, the Bears are 24-12 when Jay Cutler starts and 2-5 when he doesn't.

The Pick: Bears (N/A)

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

I'll gladly take a 4-point home underdog with a QB who threw for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns last week.

The Pick: Jaguars (+4) 

Pro Football Focus: Packers at Giants Preview

I cannot wait for Sunday Night Football. This may be the game of the year. Here are my 3 matchups to focus on when the Packers visit the Giants:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/23/3tfo-packers-giants-week-12/

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Pro Football Focus: Next Man Up, Week 11

As the injuries pile up, team depth becomes more and more of a factor in the fate of NFL teams. See which backups in San Francisco, Philadelphia, Arizona, and Oakland distinguished themselves, for better and worse, in my Week 11 edition of Next Man Up:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/22/next-man-up-week-11/

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Pete's Picks: NFL Week 11

It's always nice to add a new face to an old rivalry.

It was disheartening to see so many quarterbacks fall with injuries last week. Please remember that the next time Roger Goodell says the phrase "18-game season." 

Last week: 8-6
Regular season: 74-69-3

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons

Breaking down the tape of this game for Pro Football Focus will be my first in-depth look at either of these teams. Matt Ryan's case for being MVP goes beyond the Falcons' 8-1 record; he's our highest graded passer.

The Pick: Falcons (-8.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

In a division with Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Ryan, the best offense in the NFC South belongs to...the Bucs? Since its bye week, Tampa Bay has gone 4-1 while outscoring its opponents 178 to 118. 

The Pick: Buccaneers (-1.5) 

My Week 11 Thursday Night Football Pick: Dolphins at Bills

The Bills can't give the ball to C.J. Spiller enough tonight.

I have enough Bills fans friends to know that their fan base is eternally optimistic, even when they have every reason not to be. I don't know how Buffalo is going to contain Cameron Wake, who leads the league with 56 quarterback pressures. I don't know how its last-ranked run defense is going to stop Reggie Bush. And as shaky as Ryan Tannehill has been the last couple of weeks, that's how Ryan Fitzpatrick has been for the entire season. And yet I'm taking the Bills. They've played the Texans and Patriots tough the last two weeks, while the Dolphins didn't even show up against the lowly Titans. I'm banking on a huge game from C.J. Spiller.

The Pick: Bills (-2.5)

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.
Odds found here.

Image found here.

Pro Football Focus: Next Man Up, Week 10

After a week where we saw four quarterbacks fall to injury, team depth is certainly top of mind for NFL fans. As always, I broke down some notable injury replacement performances in my Week 10 edition of Next Man Up. Which backup quarterback hurt his team's offense the most? Click here to find out:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/15/next-man-up-week-10/

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Pete's Picks: NFL Week 10

Peyton Manning is on track for his fifth MVP award.

Finally, I had the big picks week that I was looking for the entire first half of the season. I'm now back over .500 and not looking back. 

Last Week: 11-3

Regular Season: 66-63-3 

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens

Danell Ellerbe is stepping in splendidly for Ray Lewis, but Joe Flacco has a combined 300 passing yards in the last two games.

The Pick: Raiders (+7)

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

Peyton Manning has five straight games with three passing touchdowns, and looks every bit in line for his fifth MVP award. 

The Pick: Broncos (-4)

Pro Football Focus: Next Man Up, Week 9

In my new feature for Pro Football Focus, titled Next Man Up (shout-out to my friend/marketing expert Corey for the name), I hand out awards for the best and worst injury subs from the previous week's games. This week's winners and losers come from the Steelers, Eagles, Ravens, and Giants. And as much as I didn't want to, I had to single out a fellow Boston College grad for an awful game. You can read the full article here:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/08/next-man-up-week-9/

And as for my Thursday Night Football pick, I can't tell you how close I was to picking the Colts as one of my surprise AFC playoff teams. Instead, I chose the Titans and Bills. Wish I could have that one back. I don't think that Andrew Luck will get his fifth 300+ yard game of the season to break Peyton Manning's rookie record, but I do think that he'll do enough to beat a disheartened Jaguars team.

The Pick: Colts (-3)

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.
Odds found here.

Pete's Picks: NFL Week 9

This Steelers-Giants game will have a different feel to it.

Apologies for not getting my Thursday Night pick up (I went with the Chargers, by the way). I've been a refugee this week, as my Manhattan apartment building still waits for the power to return. Thankfully, my girlfriend has been nice enough to host me for the entire week while tolerating me endlessly staring into my laptop to type football nonsense. I owe her, big time.

Last Week: 9-5

Regular Season: 55-60-3 

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals

Only one of the Broncos nine remaining opponents currently has a winning record. First round bye, anyone?

The Pick: Broncos (-3.5)

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Ravens coach John Harbaugh is 4-0 in the week after a bye.

The Pick: Ravens (-3.5)

Pro Football Focus: My Steelers-Giants Week 9 Preview

It's going to be an emotional game this Sunday at MetLife Stadium. Here's my preview of what to focus on when the Steelers visit the Giants:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/02/3tfo-steelers-giants-week-9/

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Pro Football Focus: Next Man Up, Week 8

A couple of weeks ago, the PFF guys gave me my first feature assignment, where I analyzed the best and worst free agent signings of the offseason. You can find that here:

Free Agent Dividends

Now, they've given me the chance to do a weekly feature on a topic that plays an understated role in each team's fate: injuries. In Next Man Up, I will analyze the best and worst performances from that week's injury replacements. In the first edition of the column, I took a look at a rising star in Green Bay, a recurring disappointment in Chicago, New York’s boom-or-bust safety, and a dire protection problem in St. Louis:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/01/next-man-up/

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Pete's Picks: NFL Week 8

If only Cam Newton had as short of a memory as his critics do.

Apologies for getting the picks out so late this week. But don't worry, I've made up for it with plenty of media/society/quarterback rants.

Last Week: 5-7-1

Regular Season: 46-55-3 

Washington Redskins at Pittsburgh Steelers

It says something about today's sports media (and perhaps our society in general) that last year's Super Bowl MVP staged yet another late game-winning drive, and the story after the game was "how great did Robert Griffin look?" Sometimes we're so focused on finding the next great thing, we don't enjoy what is right in front of our faces. I can't wait for next year when the Redskins beat the Cardinals and Chris Berman says "solid win for R3, but how great was Geno Smith!" By the way, the Steelers are going to look great in this game.

The Pick: Steelers (-4)

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

It intrigues me to watch the media adore Griffin and slam Cam Newton, and justify it with statements like "and to be clear, RG3 and Cam are VERY DIFFERENT PLAYERS." Has everyone forgotten how good Newton was last year, and how much they loved him? He shattered the rookie passing record. He received 47 of 50 Rookie of the Year votes. His peers voted him the 40th best player in the league on the NFL Top 100. And yet, this week I heard an analyst suggest that the Panthers may have to move on from Newton next year. Cam didn't deserve all the praise he got last season, but now the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction.

The Pick: Panthers (+7)

Pro Football Focus: My Patriots-Rams Week 8 Preview

I've had a soft spot in my heart for the NFL's annual London game ever since I went to the inaugural one back in 2007, when the soon-to-be Super Bowl champion Giants beat the winless Dolphins in a slopfest at Wembley Stadium. You can read my full story of that weekend, which included a streaker and a 26-foot tall Jason Taylor, here:

http://www.eternalsunshinepete.blogspot.com/2011/10/london-calling.html

I've also written a preview of tomorrow's Patriots-Rams matchup on PFF. Can the Patriots finally beat an NFC West team, or will Jeff Fisher best Bill Belichick for the first time since 2002? Here are three matchups that could decide it:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/10/26/3tfo-patriots-rams-week-8-london/

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.

My Week 7 Thursday Night Football Pick: Buccaneers at Vikings

Bottom of the highlights shows, top of the wild-card race: your 2012 Minnesota Vikings.

The Minnesota Vikings are 5-2. That sounds obvious, but I'm not sure how many people realize it. If you watched any NFL highlight show last Sunday night, you were treated to news about Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Terrell Suggs, and Mark Sanchez. And then, if you stuck around long enough, you may have seen that Minnesota beat the Arizona Cardinals to stay firmly in the playoff race. If the playoffs started today, the Vikings would be in, while much more publicized teams like the Cowboys, Eagles, and Redskins would be out.

Why are the Vikings being ignored? Probably because no one thinks they can keep this up. Few people expected much from Minnesota this season, and how could they? They were starting a second-year quarterback with a rookie left tackle. They didn't address their shaky secondary except to draft a safety in the second round and sign a cornerback, Chris Carr, who they cut before Week 1. In my preseason preview, I wrote, "...I liked the promise Christian Ponder showed as a rookie, but I have little optimism for a sub-par secondary in a division with two of the most potent offenses in the league." 

Instead, the Vikings are succeeding thanks to MVP-candidate Percy Harvin, Defensive Player of the Year candidate Antoine Winfield (pictured above), and a miraculously-healthy Adrian Peterson. I don't think the Vikings can survive a brutal second-half schedule that includes six games against teams that currently have a winning record, but I do think that they can beat the Buccaneers (and Greg Schiano's bush-league tactics) tonight. And then hopefully they'll get the attention they deserve.

The Pick: Vikings (-5)

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Odds found here.
Image found here.

Pro Football Focus: Steelers-Bengals Week 7 Preview

Can the Bengals kick Pittsburgh while they're down? Or will the Steelers once again assert their dominance over this rivalry? Click here to see my preview of this Sunday Night's NFC North battle:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/10/19/3tfo-steelers-bengals-week-7/

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.

Pete's Picks: NFL Week 7

Don't dismiss the Ravens defense just yet.

Well, my new approach from last week didn't work. 7-7, and still a few games under .500. At least my Thursday Night pick this week was spot-on.

 Last Week: 7-7

Regular Season: 41-48-2 

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills

Outscored by 55 points this season, and yet the Bills are tied for the AFC East lead. With their next two games at Houston and at New England, this is a game that Buffalo needs to have.

The Pick: Bills (-3.5)

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton took "time to reflect" during his bye week, while Jerry Jones doubled down and declared that the Cowboys will compete for a championship this year. It's not possible for both of these teams to disappoint their fans this week, so I'll go with the home underdogs coming off extra rest.

The Pick: Panthers (+2.5)