KID - Week 4 Power Rankings: Time to Panic?

Each year, eleven of my best friends and I participate in a keeper fantasy football league, dubbed "Keeper? I Don't Even Like Her!" (KID, for short).  This post, ranking the teams in our league after their Week 3 performances, is for them.

Three weeks seems like a short time, but us in the fantasy football world know that it's not too early to panic about our teams.  Considering that you'll need to finish the season at 7-6 to make the playoffs, or 10-3 if you want that elusive first round bye, you may not have much leeway left for the final 10 games of the fantasy regular season.

Take me, for instance.  I think I have a pretty decent team that will develop over the next few weeks, but due to lackluster performances and some bad luck, I'm 0-3.  A loss this week, and my fantasy season will be over before it started.

This week, I'll note where your team stands and if it's time to panic or not.

1. Room For Regret (Last week's rank: 2) 3-0, 408 points
Last week: Tom Brady and LeSean McCoy combined for nearly 60 points to lead Kevin to victory.  Why do I get the feeling I'll be typing that sentence again?
Time to panic? As the only undefeated team in the league, Kevin is in the best shape to grab the 1 seed.  If Brady replicates his 2007 season, as he looks to be doing, Kevin will be tough to beat.

2. Rice and Breesy (3) 2-1, 388 points

Last week: Wes Welker's 43 points gave Sumit the win and vaulted the Patriots receiver above every other fantasy RB or WR.  Randy Moss is no longer there to draw coverages, yet Welker is doing better than ever. 
Time to panic? Sumit is in very good shape.  Whereas Will's team is built on balance, Sumit has a core of Welker, Drew Brees, Greg Jennings and Ray Rice that can explode in any given week. 

3. A Few Good Chicks (1) 2-1, 380 points

Last week: Philip Rivers came up small in a favorable matchup against the Chiefs, and Will couldn't keep up with Sumit.
Time to panic? Will is in a fine position to make the playoffs, but the Kenny Britt injury weakens him significantly.  If he wants a bye, he'll need a better WR2 than Johnny Knox.

Middle School Gambling: My Week 3 Picks

I haven't felt this hopeless about a Giants game since Eli Manning's rookie season.

Back when I was in middle school, I went to a church-sponsored street fair in Queens, which is about as classy as it sounds.  Picture Dennis and Dee's trip to the Jersey Shore on last night's episode of It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, minus the grave-digging.

For some reason my parents gave me a fifty-dollar bill, which I suppose was meant to be spent on various under-maintained carnival rides.  But when I entered the fair, one of the first things to catch my eye was a giant roulette wheel game, run by my old little league coach (seriously).  After about thirty minutes and a couple dozen bets later, I'd lost all my cash.  That was my first lesson on the stupidity of gambling.  Lesson number 267 came last week, when I correctly picked 13 out of 16 games, but still finished even against the spread.  There's a reason the house always wins.  Either way, it's too late to stop now.

Last week: 13-3, 7-7-2 Against the Spread (ATS)

Season: 22-10, 13-14-4 ATS

49ers at Bengals - Two years ago, the 49ers were off to a promising 2-0 start until they were derailed by Brett Favre.  For San Francisco's sake, I hope last week's collapse to Dallas doesn't do the same.

Pick - 49ers

ATS - 49ers (+2.5)

KID - Week 3 Power Rankings

Each year, eleven of my best friends and I participate in a keeper fantasy football league, dubbed the "Keeper? I Don't Even Like Her!" league (KID, for short).  This post, rankings the teams in our league after their week 2 performances, is for them.

The record pace of the passing game this season has definitely had its effect on the fantasy world.  Quarterbacks have always been the biggest fantasy point producers, but now they're bringing receivers up with them.  Last year, the top 10 non-QBs in fantasy points were all running backs.  So far this season, four of those 10 are receivers.  In fact, no running back in our league has more points than Kenny Britt, Miles Austin or Steve Smith. 

However, I don't expect that to be the case at the end of the year, as secondaries gel and erase the busted coverages that are contributing to so many yards through the air.  Receiving corps that look great now won't be as reliable in December.

This week, I'll quickly note the biggest early weakness that I see in each team.  You might want to keep this in mind as trading season gets into full swing.

1. A Few Good Chicks (Last week's rank: 3) 2-0, 286 points
Will was the leading scorer last week, with 137 well-balanced points.  Eight of his nine starters, Johnny Knox being the exception, put up double-digits.
Biggest weakness: Nothing that I can see.  Will's team has strength and depth at every position.  Anything I'd put here is just nitpicking.

2. Room For Regret (2) 2-0, 289 points

Kevin saw Dez Bryant (injured) and Antonio Gates (shut down by Bill Belichick) contribute zero points last week, and yet he still put up an impressive 130-spot thanks to Tom Brady and the Jets defense.
Biggest weakness: Kevin's depth at running back concerns me.  He's one injury away from starting Marion Barber or C.J. Spiller.

3. Rice and Breesy (1) 1-1, 255 points

Sumit suffered a surprising loss to Doctor Asshole this past week, despite A.J. Green's 18 points against the Broncos.
Biggest weakness: Unless Mark Ingram emerges as more of a contributor, the Rice and Breesy flex spot will be occupied by secondary scatbacks like Danny Woodhead and Reggie Bush.

Bombs Away: A Pass-Happy League and Other Thoughts on Week 2 in The NFL

It's no secret that the NFL has become a passing league.  Rules favor the offense and defenders have become so strong and fast that teams have to spread the field to move the ball.  But what we're seeing from quarterbacks in the first two weeks of the 2011 season is nothing short of ridiculous.  I touched on this last week, but compared to the first two weeks of last season, pass production has skyrocketed.

NFL Passing Stats Through Week 2
	Comp (Avg)	Att (Avg)	Yards (Avg)	Yds/Att	TD (Total)	INT (Total)
2010	20	30	201	6.7	86	69
2011	21	35	246	7.0	108	57

So what's changed between this year and last year to account for such a difference?  Three things come to mind.

Week 2 Picks

Not the best start for my picks this year.  I'd like to point out that I predicted the Bills to upset the Chiefs, and ignore the fact that four of my playoff picks are starting 0-1.  Last week didn't give us the best football we've seen, as more than one-third of the games were blowouts.  However, this week should be interesting, as it's the first since the 1970 merger to not have a divisional game on its schedule.

Season Record - 9-7

Record Against The Spread (ATS) - 6-7-3

Bears at Saints - You can't say enough about Chicago's domination of the Falcons last week.  They surprised me and most others who picked them to fall from the playoffs this year.  However, I think the Saints aggressive defense will overwhelm their offensive line, and 10 days is a long time to give Sean Payton to gameplan for an opponent.

Pick - Saints

ATS - Saints (-6.5 points)

Chiefs at Lions - Apparently the preseason might mean something after all.  The Lions were dominant and the Chiefs were doormats in August, and that didn't change in Week One.

Pick - Lions

ATS - Lions (-7.5)

KID - Week 2 Power Rankings

Each year, eleven of my best friends and I participate in a keeper fantasy football league, dubbed the "Keeper? I Don't Even Like Her!" league (KID, for short).  This post, rankings the teams in our league after their week 1 performance, is for them.

We held our draft nine days before the lockout ended, and the values of some players have changed drastically in the six weeks since.  In addition to a quick synopsis of where your team stands, I've also highlighted the players that have gone up and down in value the most since July 26th.

1. Rice and Breesy 1-0, 154 points: In case you couldn't tell from the team name, Ray Rice and Drew Brees will keep Sumit in it all season.

Up: Free agent Reggie Bush went from a crowded Saints backfield to the feature role in Miami.   

Down: At the time of the draft, rumors were that DeAngelo Williams was headed to the Broncos.  Instead, he will continue to compete with the equally talented Jonathan Stewart in Carolina.

Always Remember: Reflections on 9/11 and Week 1 of The NFL Season

Ten years ago, I, along with many others, had the worst day of my life.  I don’t often talk about it, but I will now.

I woke up on the morning of Tuesday, September 11^th, 2001 as a freshman at Boston College.  And, in what would become a theme of over the next four years, I’d overslept.  I skipped my shower, frantically threw on my jeans, and grabbed my book bag, only briefly acknowledging the DJ on my alarm clock radio when he reported that a plane had hit one of the Twin Towers.

I walked into class 20 minutes late, receiving a disapproving glance from my Jesuit professor and a mix of amusement and sympathy from my 11 classmates.  As I sat, wondering just how much I had damaged my GPA in my second week of college, my mind returned to what the radio said.  You can call it naivety or optimism, but I assumed that the story was an unfortunate accident involving a biplane and an inexperienced pilot.  It would become just another topic to chat with my mother in Queens about, and so I drifted back to the more pressing topic of dues ex machina and other themes in The Iliad.

My Preseason Predictions

Back before the season started, I broke down each division and gave my predictions for the playoffs and Super Bowl.  Here you can read them and ask yourself things like "How did he pick Denver to win the wild card?"

AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
AFC West
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
NFC West
Playoffs and Super Bowl Pick

2011 NFL Preview: Super Bowl Pick

On February 5th, Michael Vick will complete the most unbelievable of sports comebacks.

Update: In my initial post, I had the Chargers winning the AFC Championship game, and then mistakenly put the Eagles beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl.  Apologies for the brain fart. 

You can see what I think of each team's prospects in my divisional previews.  Without further ado, here are my picks for the playoffs, Super Bowl, and individual player awards. 

INDIVIDUAL AWARDS 

MVP: Aaron Rodgers  Runners-Up: Michael Vick, Tom Brady

Defensive Player of The Year: DeMarcus Ware Runners-Up: Ndamukong Suh, Terrell Suggs

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Julio Jones

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Von Miller

Comeback Player of the Year: Tony Romo 

2011 NFL Preview: NFC West

After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here.  With Kickoff Sunday a mere few hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season.  I'll go division-by-division, concluding with the NFC West. 

With an emerging quarterback with a new offensive coordinator, 
the Rams won't come up short to the Seahawks this season.

1. St. Louis Rams 

Why They’ll Be Better – I don’t know which of Josh McDaniels’ accomplishments in New England was more impressive: masterminding a record-breaking offense in 2007, or making Matt “I haven’t started since high school” Cassel look like a Pro Bowler.  He’ll do wonders for Sam Bradford’s development. 

Why They’ll Be Worse – Earlier this week, my friend Matt pointed out that the Rams' opening schedule is brutal. Five of St. Louis’ first seven games are against teams that were over .500 last season.  The Rams are a young team, and a poor start could demoralize them beyond repair. 

Week 1 Picks

Opening night of the 2011 season did not disappoint.  The Saints had a chance to tie the game on the final play, yet somehow couldn't think of something more creative than an inside run.  After the Packers had dominated the interior line all game, you just knew that call was doomed from the start.

So I'm 1-0 in my picks on the season.  I'd like to go out on a high note, George Costanza style, but there are 266 more games to be played.  Here's my take on Week 1:

Season Record - 1-0

Record Against The Spread (ATS) - 1-0

Steelers at Ravens - As the home team and my pick to win the AFC North, I think the Ravens get some revenge for last year's playoff loss.

Pick - Ravens

ATS - Ravens (-2 points)

Lions at Buccaneers - The Lions are one of my wild card teams, but the late-summer Tampa heat will cause them to stumble out of the gate.

Pick - Buccaneers

ATS - Buccaneers (-1.5)

2011 NFL Preview: NFC South

After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here.  With the Saints-Packers opening game kickoff less than 24 hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season.  I'll go division-by-division, continuing with the NFC South.

Matt Ryan and the Falcons will stay ahead of the young Bucs
and cement their place at the top of the NFC South.

1. Atlanta Falcons 

Why They'll Be Better - In a draft day trade for the ages, the Falcons mortgaged much of their future to get Julio Jones, the number two receiver that they think they've been missing.  It's early, but he has looked good in the preseason. 

Why They'll Be Worse - Although the Falcons were the #1 seed in the NFC last year, they had some breaks along the way.  Their schedule included the horrendous NFC West, they were 7-2 in games decided by seven points or less, and they were a missed field goal away from a playoff trip to Seattle instead of a bye. 

My Prediction - The Jones trade may come back to bite them down the road, but for now the Falcons are in great shape.  The Atlanta offense will only get better as Matt Ryan evolves into an elite NFL quarterback, and new arrival Ray Edwards will team up with defensive end John Abraham to pester NFC quarterbacks.

2011 NFL Preview: NFC North

After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here.  With the Saints-Packers opening game kickoff less than 24 hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season.  I'll go division-by-division, continuing with the NFC North.
 

Green Bay still leads the pack, but the Lions are catching up.

1. Green Bay Packers 
Why They'll Be Better - Green Bay made a championship run after suffering some bad injuries, and now they get those key players back.Ryan Grant and T.J. Lang will give the Packers a boost, but I'm most excited to see the return of Jermichael Finley.  By December, he could jump to the top of the tight end ranks.

Why They'll Be Worse - The departure of Cullen Jenkins was the only blot on an otherwise steady offseason for the Packers.  Aaron Rodgers' history of concussions might be the only red flag on a team with the fewest holes in the league. 

My Prediction - Typically, if a team wins the Super Bowl, it then loses in free agency.  Its players want to be rewarded for their victory, and other teams are willing to overpay them for some of that championship mojo.  Yet, the Packers are better now than they were when they hoisted the Lombardi trophy.  And with only three seasons under his belt, Rodgers  still has room for improvement.  That’s a scary thought for the rest of the league.

Kickoff Thursday - My Pick

Less than six hours until the NFL season kicks off with the Saints and the Packers.  I have some high hopes for both of these teams this season, but for tonight I'm going with Green Bay.  In the seven years since the NFL started rewarding the Super Bowl winner with the opening Thursday night home game, the reigning champion has gone 7-0.  I don't expect the Packers to blemish that mark tonight at Lambeau Field. 

Pick: Packers
Pick ATS (Against The Spread): Packers, -4.5pts

2011 NFL Preview: NFC East

After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here.  With the Saints-Packers opening game kickoff less than 24 hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season.  I'll go division-by-division, continuing with the NFC East.

An accurate representation of the offseasons in Philadelphia and New York.

1. Philadelphia Eagles 

Why They'll Be Better - Because at face-value, the Eagles had the best offseason I've ever seen.  Those comparing Philly's moves to the past drunken spending sprees of the Redskins are mistaken.  Washington signed big names like Deion Sanders and Bruce Smith when they were 33 and 37 years old, respectively.  Nnamdi Asomugha, Cullen Jenkins and Jason Babin are all in their prime.

Why They'll Be Worse - Issues on the offensive line aren't good when your quarterback is as injury-prone as Michael Vick is.  If Vince Young had a breakdown because he thought the fans in Nashville were harsh, I'd hate to see what happens if he's asked to face the Philly crowd for a few games.

My Prediction - The Eagles were already a dangerous team before they got three of this year's top 10 free agents (four if you count Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who they acquired in the Kevin Kolb trade).  A major injury to Vick is the only thing standing between them and a possible Super Bowl run.

2011 NFL Preview: AFC West

After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here.  With the Saints-Packers opening game kickoff less than 24 hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season.  I'll go division-by-division, continuing with the AFC West .

The Chargers will prove that last season was a fluke,
but the Broncos could be the surprise of 2011.

1. San Diego Chargers

Why They'll Be Better - With Vincent Jackson financially placated and Antonio Gates healthy, look for the Charger passing game to be at the top of the league.

Why They'll Be Worse - San Diego took a risk in letting Darren Sproles go and putting more on the shoulders of Ryan Mathews.  After the Chargers traded up in the first round to grab him, the young running back hasn't shown that he can handle the extra workload.

My Prediction - It's rare that a team ranked first in the league in offense and defense misses the playoffs, but San Diego did just that last season.  As much as the blocked punts and poor kick coverage hurt them last year, any improvement on special teams will have the Chargers back near the top of the conference.

2011 NFL Preview: AFC South

After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here.  With the Saints-Packers opening game kickoff less than 24 hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season.  I'll go division-by-division, continuing with the AFC South .

With Peyton finally sidelined, not even the Texans can miss this opportunity.

1. Houston Texans

Why They'll Be Better - No single unit killed its team more in 2010 than the Texans secondary.  After signing free agents Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning, the Houston passing defense may finally be able to give the offense some breathing room.

Why They'll Be Worse - These days, the Texans never lack talent but are always sitting at home come January.  If there's one coach who can miss the window of opportunity that Peyton Manning's absence has left, it's Gary Kubiak.

My Prediction - The new defensive system will not be as big of a challenge as many are making it to be.  Wade Philips' 3-4 defense has a lot of 4-3 principles that will ease the transition.  By the end of the season, Mario Williams will look like a DeMarcus Ware clone, and the city of Houston will host its first playoff game in 18 years.

2011 NFL Preview: AFC North

After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here.  With the Saints-Packers opening game kickoff less than 24 hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season.  I'll go division-by-division, continuing with the AFC North.

The Ravens will have no sympathy for Pittsburgh's Super Bowl hangover.

1. Baltimore Ravens

Why They'll Be Better - The Ravens' big-time receiver acquisitions came up small in a frustrating playoff loss to the Steelers.  However, I expect Anquan Boldin to improve in his second year with Joe Flacco, and Lee Evans has more tread left on his tires than T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Derrick Mason did.

Why They'll Be Worse - Ray Lewis and Ed Reed have held down the Ravens defense for a decade, but they have to slow down sometime.  Lewis turned 36 this year, and Reed showed signs of decline last season.

My Prediction - The Ravens are like the Jets, in that they can ride a stout defense into the playoffs but will ultimately need their young quarterback to get them over the hump.  I'd rather put my money on Flacco than Sanchez.

2011 NFL Preview: AFC East

After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here.  With the Saints-Packers opening game kickoff less than 24 hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season.  I'll go division-by-division, starting with the AFC East.

The Pats will once again outlast the Jets in the regular season.

1. New England Patriots 

Why They'll Be Better - The Patriots have lacked a pass rush ever since they traded  Richard Seymour in 2009.  Finally, it appears that Bill Belichick has taken some serious steps to mend it.  Albert Haynesworth, Shaun Ellis and Andre Carter will join Vince Wilfork to apply more pressure to opposing quarterbacks.

Why They'll Be Worse - Although I think the investments in Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco are more legitimate upgrades than previous veteran signees like Joey Galloway and Fred Taylor, Belichick is still relying on castaway veterans and inexperienced youngsters to come up big when it matters.  As we saw in the playoff game versus the Jets, that could be a risky gamble.

My Prediction - People worry whether Belichick will stay in a 3-4 defensive system or move to a 4-3, but it's never that black-and-white with him.  The bottom line is that the Patriots coach will constantly alter his system to fit his players, not the other way around.  Over a 16-game season, few teams can keep pace with New England.