The Cowboys and Giants: A Fitting Finale, and My Week 17 Picks

The Giants and Cowboys have been equally thrilling and heartbreaking this season.

Tonight's season finale will be a fitting end to a surprising and maddening season for the NFC East.  When the season started, the Eagles' big August moves made the division title seem like a mere formality on the road to a possible championship, until Philadelphia re-set the bar for late-game collapses.  When October arrived, the 3-1 Redskins looked like a surprise contender, until they crashed to earth with a six-game losing streak.  And so amidst the rubble of a division that was once the toughest in the league, only Dallas and New York remain standing for a shot at a home playoff game.

The 2011 Cowboys and Giants have been strikingly similar in their ability to raise and crush the hopes of their fans this season.  Both teams looked lost in the offseason, as Dallas added little in free agency and the Giants lost fan favorites Kevin Boss and Steve Smith.  But over the months that followed, Dallas and New York each showed that they could beat, or lose to, any team in the league.  Eli Manning has had six fourth quarter game-winning drives, while Tony Romo has had four of his own.  DeMarcus Ware and Jason Pierre-Paul are Defensive Player of the Year candidates, but their respective units have lost to the likes of Charlie Whitehurst, Mark Sanchez, Rex Grossman and John Skelton. The Cowboy and Giant offenses wouldn't have survived injuries to Felix Jones, Miles Austin and Mario Manningham without breakthroughs from DeMarco Murray, Laurent Robinson and Victor Cruz.

Top 10 Undeserving Pro Bowlers

Unlike other perennial Pro Bowlers, Maurkice Pouncey has done little in his career to justify the honors he receives.

As big of an NFL fan as I am, I will be the first to admit that the Pro Bowl is the worst of the all-star contests out there.  But even if the game itself is meaningless, Pro Bowl selections are important because they help determine which players ultimately make the Hall of Fame and which don't.  

When the Pro Bowl teams were announced last night, I was pleased with most of the picks.  But inevitably there were going to be a few mistakes, where a popular player with a poor year was included over an unknown player with better production.  Two weeks ago, I covered the offensive and defensive players that deserved to add a Pro Bowl to their resume.  Now that the rosters were officially announced, let's look at the 10 players who will go to Hawaii, even though they don't deserve to.

(Note: If you're wondering where I get all my blocking, pass rushing, and other advanced metrics from, go to ProFootballFocus.com.  I highly suggest signing up for a premium account there if you want to see how your favorite players stack up against their peers.)

1) Maurkice Pouncey, C - It's no surprise that the biggest Pro Bowl farce happens on the unit that fans and players pay the least attention to: the offensive line.  At some point last year, Steeler Nation decided that their center was going to be a perennial Pro Bowler, and the national media took the bait.  Pouncey is an average run blocker and struggles in pass protection, and yet still was voted in over Chris Myers, the engine for the powerful Texan run game.  Houston's offensive line is the best in the league, yet will not have a single representative in Hawaii.

The Battle For New York, and My Week 16 Picks

When you're a football fan in New York, you're always in enemy territory.

If you live in an opposing team's city long enough, you meet enough annoying people along that way that you grow to resent the local fan base.  After residing in Boston for the past decade, I've heard enough "Tahm Brady is the greatest qwahterbehk evah" arguments to make my ears bleed.  That's why Eli Manning's Super Bowl XLII reenactment in November was particularly sweet for me.

Football in New York is unique, in that both Jet and Giant fans are perpetually surrounded by fans of another team.  I hated the Jets in high school, not because I disliked Vinny Testaverde or Wayne Chrebet, but because if the Jets won and Giants lost on a given weekend, I was greeted with endless trashtalk from my Jet fans friends on Monday.  My hatred for Gang Green waned after I moved to Boston, but I'd like to thank Rex Ryan for recently rekindling it.

KID Championship - The Battle of Good vs. Evil

This is a glimpse of our future if Matt Hunt wins a fantasy football championship.

Some believe that the Mayan calendar has predicted the end of the world nearly one year from today, on December 21st, 2012.  Instead, I fear that our doomsday is much closer than that.  I'll let film superstar Rick Moranis explain:

Reggie Wayne's Pain, and My Thursday Night Texans - Colts Pick

Reggie Wayne may never undo the hit his legacy took this season.

There's been  no shortage of career damage in Indianapolis this year.  After an 0-13 start, last week's win may not be enough to save the jobs of coach Jim Caldwell and his staff.  Peyton Manning lost one of the few prime years he has left in his career.  And Bill Polian's sparkling reputation has been exposed for irresponsibly ignoring the backup quarterback position for a decade.  What's gone largely unnoticed, however, is the damage done to the legacy of one of the greatest Colts of all-time, Reggie Wayne.

A free agent after this season, Wayne has admitted that tonight's game might be his last in Indianapolis.  As he enters the twilight of his career at age 33, conversations about him will inevitably address whether or not he deserves to be in The Hall of Fame.  Wayne is currently 19th on the all-time career receptions list, and 22nd on the receiving yards list.  Torry Holt and Randy Moss retired at 33, but I could see Wayne lasting another three seasons before finally bowing out at 36, the same age that his teammate Marvin Harrison left the game.  If Wayne can average a respectable 800 yards in those final three seasons, he'll retire with over 14,000 receiving yards, putting him right behind Harrison at seventh on the all-time list.  But if you think that statistic is enough to get him into The Hall, you're forgetting that Chris Carter retired with the second most catches and third most yards of any receiver, and yet is still waiting for his call from Canton.

Monday Night Football - Steelers-49ers

The Steelers offensive line will struggle to stop Justin Smith (94) and Isaac Sopoaga (90) without their Pro Bowl center.

My roommate Colin, an avid 49ers fan, has been giddy about his first meaningful Monday Night game in years.  The Steelers won't miss James Harrison in this one nearly as much as they'll miss Maurkice Pouncey.  Without their starting center, Pittsburgh will struggle to stop Justin Smith, Ray McDonald, and NaVorro Bowman, all of whom I picked for my Pro Bowl defense.

Pick - 49ers

Against The Spread - 49ers (-2.5) 

Want to talk football?  Follow me on Twitter at @BostonGiant.

Have a suggestion for an article?  Email me at eternalsunshinepete@gmail.com. 

Odds courtesy of USA Today.
Image found here.

My NFL Week 15 Picks

Terrell Suggs always shows up in primetime, especially when he's playing a patchwork offensive line.

Apologies for the delay this week, I was busy putting time into my Pro Bowl team, which I highly recommend taking a look at.  You can see if your favorite team was represented herehere.  For the record, I did make my Cowboys pick before last night's game was played. and

Last week: 12-4; 7-9 Against The Spread

Season: 136-72; 99-102-7 ATS

Cowboys at Buccaneers - What a gut punch for the Cowboys.  Mere minutes away from virtually clinching the NFC East, Dallas now will probably need a win in New York on New Year's Day to make the playoffs.  If they lose to the disintegrating Bucs, that game might not even matter.

Pick - Cowboys

ATS - Cowboys (-7)

Redskins at Giants - The Giants are fortunate to be alive right now.  Their habit of taking games down to the final minute means that they can win or lose against any opponent, which is why I'm not as confident about this Redskins game as you think I would be.

Pick - Giants

ATS - Redskins (+6.5)

My Pro Bowl Picks - Defense & Special Teams

I have no problem picking two linebackers from the same team when they're as good as Patrick Willis (52) and Navorro Bowman (53).

The  NFL needs to find a way to add standout players to the Pro Bowl ballot as the season goes along.  I'd love to vote Carlos Dunlap, Jason Pierre-Paul and Kevin Williams on my team, but fans don't even have that option because those players weren't considered starters when voting opened in October.  It's unacceptable that they can be denied this honor because of a logistical issue on the league's website.

I gave you my Pro Bowl offense yesterday, so today I'm rounding my team out with defense and special teams.  Let's get right to it.

DEFENSIVE ENDS

AFC - Andre Carter (NE), Brett Kiesel (PIT), Elvis Dumervil (DEN)  Carter is getting noticed for his 10 sacks this season, but he's also been a top five run-stopping defensive end.  Kiesel is the ideal 3-4 end, bringing a strong pass rush with stout run support.  Dumervil is my frontrunner for Comeback Player of the Year after missing all of 2010 with a torn pectoral muscle.  He has adapted quickly to the Broncos' shift to a 4-3 defense, racking up 7.5 sacks in the process.

NFC - Jared Allen (MIN), Julius Peppers (CHI), Trent Cole (PHI) The field here is stacked and I wish I could find a place for Calais Campbell and John Abraham.  Allen is threatening Michael Strahan's sack record and Peppers' relentless effort creates countless opportunities for his teammates.  It's tough to leave Jason Babin off when he has 15 sacks, but Cole has just as many quarterback pressures while also shining against the run.

My Thursday Night Jaguars-Falcons Pick

Players aren't the only ones who are risking their health in this business.

I've spent a lot of time on my Pro Bowl picks this week and am currently reading how a Chicago Bears third-string receiver has been running a multi-million dollar drug ring, so I'm keeping this short.  

I'm going with the Falcons tonight because, even though their coach may have suffered a heart attack this week (you mean 50-year old men shouldn't work 20 hours a day for six months straight?), they need this game much more than the Jaguars do.  Jacksonville had an inspiring win on Sunday that may ultimately cost Bucs coach Raheem Morris his job, but the Jaguars secondary and receiving corps has been ravaged by injuries.  Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Julio Jones should take advantage tonight.

Pick - Falcons

Against The Spread - Falcons (-13.5)

Odds courtesy of USA Today.

Image found here.

My Pro Bowl Picks - Offense

Meet Texans center Chris Myers.  Now vote him into the Pro Bowl.  He deserves it.

You probably don't care about the Pro Bowl, and you shouldn't.  The game is disinteresting at best, a farce at worst.  However, I care deeply about who gets selected to the Pro Bowl each year.  Why?  Because, for better or worse, the Hall of Fame committee takes Pro Bowls into account when they decide who to enshrine in Canton.  And it pains me to see Brandon Meriweather go to Hawaii because people remembered that he played for the Patriots and once stomped on a player.  

So take a minute to fill out a ballot, and we'll come closer to getting the right guys in the Pro Bowl.  If you need some suggestions, I've  pored over stats, video, and ProFootballFocus.com (which assigns a grade to every player on every play of every game), to give you the players who deserve to be honored for their performance, not their popularity.  Today I'll cover just the offense, so please come back tomorrow for the defense and special teams.

QUARTERBACKS

AFC - Tom Brady (NE), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT), Tim Tebow (DEN)  Peyton Manning's injury and a down year for Philip Rivers leaves a big void at the third QB spot in the AFC.  I'm tempted to go with Matt Schaub for his efficient start to the season, but Tebow is on pace to nearly match his total yardage output and the young QB's turnaround of the Broncos has been remarkable.

Destroying The Game? James Harrison and The NFL's New Rules

James Harrison isn't the first player whose toughness was outlawed by the NFL.

 "It reminds me of intramural football years ago." - Hall of Fame coach Weeb Ewbank

"The new rules have destroyed one of the finest parts of the game..." - Vikings Hall of Fame defensive tackle Merlin Olsen

"It's not football anymore...All the rules are on their side." - 49ers linebacker Jack Reynolds

"They want a circus out there-more throwing and scoring at the expense of those who rush." - Rams defensive end Fred Dryer

"You're blessed with a God-given talent.  You work a whole career to learn the skill and to use it, to get it down.  And then some rich guys who never played the game get together in Hawaii or someplace, over a cocktail, and take away what you've perfected." - 49ers defensive end Cedric Hardman

Earlier today, the NFL gave James Harrison a one-game suspension for his illegal and concussive hit on Browns quarterback Colt McCoy.  This was no small decision, as it is the first time the league has suspended a player for violating their new restrictions on helmet-to-helmet blows.  While many fans applauded the ruling, others had reactions similar to the quotes you see above.  But believe it or not, these words are not taken from a Steelers message board or LaMarr Woodley's Twitter account.

My Monday Night Rams-Seahawks Pick

Although they won't repeat as NFC West champs, the Seahawks are better off now than they were a year ago.

Last year, the Seahawks became the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs, and then stunned the league with an upset of the Saints in the wild card round.  But that didn't change the fact that Seattle had a flawed team with the fifth-worst point differential in the league.  Pete Carroll continued his rebuilding process this season, and although the Seahawks won't reach the postseason, they are better than they were in 2010.  If not for two disappointing losses to the Browns and Redskins, Seattle could be 7-5 and firmly in the playoff hunt.  Instead, their game tonight against the Rams is virtually meaningless.

Carroll has built a young and underrated defense by finding gems in the draft.  Linebacker K.J. Wright and defensive backs Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman were all selected in the fourth round or later.  Carroll has also brought the best out of journeyman defensive end Chris Clemons, who you might remember me praising in the past.  Seattle's biggest problems lie on offense, where everyone outside of Marshawn Lynch, Doug Baldwin and Max Unger have disappointed this season.  There are worse quarterbacks out there than Tavaris Jackson, and one of them is Charlie Whitehurst.  It still baffles me why Carroll gave a third round pick for a backup who had never thrown a pass in the NFL.  I assume this is how the deal for Whitehurst went down, with Chargers GM A.J. Smith playing the role of the crack dealer.  If Seattle sees a quarterback they like in April's draft, they should pounce on him.

As for the Rams, this has been a lost season for them.  Injuries to their receiving corps made a tough first-half schedule flat-out insurmountable.  And injuries to Sam Bradford have stunted the development of the second year franchise quarterback.  I like Steve Spagnuolo and believe that he deserves another year as coach, but his team must show some fight in this final month.  With the Bengals, Steelers, and 49ers on the horizon, this may be his last chance.

Pick - Seahawks (As my friend Matt pointed out to me, Seattle actually has the best Monday Night Football winning percentage in the NFL.)

ATS - Seahawks (-9.5)

Want to talk football?  Follow me on Twitter at @BostonGiant.

Have a suggestion for an article?  Email me at eternalsunshinepete@gmail.com.

 Image found here.

Staying Alive: The Night the Giants Saved Their Season

It took less than six minutes for the fate of the Giants franchise to turn around.

Ever since I left New York for college, I have a tradition of calling my father after every Giants game to recap what happened.  As Dez Bryant was imitating Victor Cruz's salsa dance with less than six minutes to play and the Cowboys lead stretched to 12, I couldn't help but formulate what I was going to say on the phone:  

"All of our injuries caught up to our defense.  Kenny Phillips wouldn't have blown that coverage like Antrelle Rolle did."

"Eli and our offense put up a fight.  We'd be 9-4 if our defense was even average."  

"It's unfortunate, but I don't see how we can keep Tom Coughlin around after his fourth second-half collapse in six years."

What a difference a few minutes make.  Last December, the Giants lost their 2010 season in an eight minute "take it to your grave" collapse against the Eagles.  Ultimately, it was the difference between them missing the playoffs and going to the NFC Championship game.  Last night, New York saved its 2011 season in an improbable six minute comeback.  It may turn out to be the difference between the Giants firing their coach and hosting a first-round playoff game.

If the Giants do make the playoffs, then this win will have been their biggest since Super Bowl XLII.  But nothing is guaranteed right now.  New York's defense is among the worst in the league, and the Giants have trailed in the fourth quarter in 12 of 13 games (Week Two against the Rams being the only exception).  Those are not the characteristics of a playoff team.  But amid all the criticism for second-half collapses, what's lost in the Coughlin era is that his teams are always playing for something.  In fact, there's been only ONE game in the past seven seasons (the 2009 finale against the Vikings) when the Giants took the field knowing they had been eliminated from playoff contention.  That is a monumental accomplishment.

The road ahead is not easy.  New York now hosts the Redskins, who beat them in Week One and nearly beat the Patriots yesterday.  Then they play the Jets in a Christmas eve game that is sure to get personal.  And if the Giants lose to the Cowboys in the season finale, yesterday's comeback will have just delayed the inevitable. But last night's win guaranteed that Giants fans can keep believing in their team's playoff hopes deep into December.  At this point, that's all you can ask for.

Want to talk football?  Follow me on Twitter at @BostonGiant.

Have a suggestion for an article?  Email me at eternalsunshinepete@gmail.com.

 Image found here.

My NFL Week 14 Picks

Say it with me, Raheem: 'They are who we thought they were.'

The Steelers took care of business last night, though not by as large a margin as I thought they would.  Ben Roethlisberger limped back onto the field because he knows that, at this time of year, every play counts.  And with just four games left for me to get above .500 against the spread, every pick counts.

Last week: 11-5; 9-7 Against The Spread

Season: 124-68; 92-93-7 ATS

Colts at Ravens - In 2007, the Ravens nearly upset the undefeated Patriots on Monday Night Football.  Two weeks later, they lost to the 0-13 Miami Dolphins.  With Pittsburgh hot on their heels, I can't fathom Baltimore having a letdown at home against the winless Colts.

Pick - Ravens

ATS - Colts (+16.5)

KID First Round Playoff Predictions

Each year, eleven of my best friends and I participate in a keeper fantasy football league, dubbed "Keeper? I Don't Even Like Her!" (KID, for short).  These power rankings are for them.

The races went down to the wire, but now our playoff field is set.  Tough luck for Colin and Superior, who both came up short last week when they needed a win.  Jason's ass is bigger than we thought, because he pulled another 155 points out of it.  Mike was in a hole after Vince Young put up nine points last Thursday, but Chris Johnson actually decided to show up against the Bills.  Will became the first team in league history to make the playoffs with a losing record, but with the fourth-highest point total in the league, he deserves to be there.  Let's take a look at the matchups for the first round.

The Mighty Kegs (5) vs. Doctor Asshole (4)  Tensions between these former roommates haven't been this high since the time Mike claimed that he was a bigger Phillies fan than Jason.

Any Given Thursday? My Pick For Browns-Steelers

It's been tough sledding for Colt McCoy and the Browns this year.

The NFL's Thursday Night schedule has actually been more impressive than its Monday Night slate this season.  But with the Browns traveling to Pittsburgh tonight, will we see our first Thursday night snoozefest?  Not so fast.

Two years ago, Pittsburgh was the defending Super Bowl champion and had just suffered an inexcusable loss to the 3-8 Oakland Raiders.  When they traveled to Cleveland in Week 14 for a Thursday night game against the 1-11 Browns, the Steelers were 6-6 and fighting for the playoffs.  Yet instead of getting a win they desperately needed, Ben Roethlisberger was sacked eight times in a 13-6 Browns upset.  The Steelers won their final three games, but the Cleveland loss left them at 9-7 and out of the postseason.

The Super BCS: What If The NFL Didn't Have a Playoff?

The Super BCS system will keep party crashers like these from stealing a championship.

The BCS released its bowl game schedule this week, and it was followed by the annual uproar from college football fans everywhere.  The fact that the sport's governing bodies refuse to create a playoff system in the face of so much public opposition is simply laughable.  Fifty years from now, I'll explain to my grandchildren that there was a time when college football didn't have a playoff, and they'll look at me like I'm crazy.  Then I'll grumpily tell them to take their hover pods over to the kitchen to help the iMaid cook dinner.

I don't need to tell you what a college football playoff would be like.  Hundreds of sportswriters make the perfect case for that dream tournament every year.  Instead, since this is a pro football blog, let's explore the opposite.  What if the NFL didn't have a playoff system?  What if Roger Goodell created the Super Bowl Championship Series, whose title game simply pitted the two teams with the best records against each other?  What would change?  Just imagine...

The Future of Football in Jacksonville, and My Monday Night Chargers-Jaguars Pick

The Jacksonville Jaguars are entering a new era.  Blaine Gabbert may not be a part of it.  Neither may Jacksonville.

If you were to stand all the NFL franchises on a totem pole, the Jacksonville Jaguars would certainly be at the bottom.  They don't have decades of history, like the Lions.  They don't have any Hall of Famers, like the Cardinals.  They don't have a Super Bowl trophy, like the Buccaneers.  They don't have a Super Bowl appearance, like the Panthers.  They've never had a high-profile quarterback, like the Chargers.  They don't consistently sell-out their games, like the Browns.  They do, however, have the ugliest uniforms in the league.

Yet last week, the Jags were the biggest story in the NFL.  In a matter of 24 hours, owner Wayne Weaver fired his coach and sold his team.  Jack Del Rio had one of the more inauspicious long-term coaching tenures in NFL history, with just three winning seasons and one playoff victory in nine years.  (That also happens to be the number of playoff wins Mike Shanahan has had in the past nine seasons, but I digress.)  

My favorite Del Rio story came in his first season as coach of the Jags, when he decided that putting a tree stump and ax in the middle of a locker room full of emotionally charged mega-athletes was a good idea.  The motivational ploy backfired when his punter axed himself in the leg after a loss.  You know you've made a mistake when you have to use the phrase "a gash of some sort" during a press conference.  The peak of Del Rio's reign in Jacksonville will forever be David Garrard's last-second win over the Steelers in the 2007 wild card round.  Not exactly what you want from a nine-year investment.

My NFL Week 13 Picks

With free agent cornerback Johnathan Joseph, the Texans defense has risen to the top of the league. 

The final glimmer of hope in the Eagles' turbulent season faded away last night in poetic fashion.  Down 10, but driving for a possible comeback, Vince Young, the man that coined the "Dream Team" moniker, threw an awful pick-six to extinguish Philadelphia's playoff chances for good.  And there goes my Super Bowl prediction.  Why couldn't I have started this blog two years ago, when I picked the Saints to win it all?

Last week: 12-4; 9-7 Against the Spread 

Season: 113-63; 83-86-7 ATS 

Titans at Bills - I don't fault Stevie Johnson for dropping the potential game-winning touchdown (the second such error of his young career) as much as I do for his excessive celebration.  Everyone makes mistakes, but it takes a truly immature individual to hurt your team for the sake of self-promotion.   When LeBron James approves of your decision, you know you've done something wrong.

Pick - Bills

ATS - Bills (-1.5) 

Chiefs at Bears - Every few weeks, Mike Martz needs to be reminded that rushing is legal in football.  After he called 41 passes and only 22 runs last week, Lovie Smith will demand that Chicago keeps the ball on the ground against the 26th-ranked Kansas City run defense.

Pick - Bears

ATS - Bears (-7)

Thursday Night Pick - Eagles at Seahawks

With his job possibly on the line, will Andy Reid stay undefeated at Qwest CenturyLink Field?

Over the hundreds of articles and thousands of hours of sports talk radio I've absorbed over the years, I've learned that no national football analyst ever knows a team as well as its local fans.  And since two of my best friends root for the Seahawks and Eagles, I wanted to get their opinions heading into tonight's game.  (Plus, it's easier than writing this whole post myself.)

Mike - Philadelphia resident since '06, likes his cheesesteaks "wit" onions, knows what a Mummer is:

Most of the pundits here in Philly are picking the Seahawks for the following reasons:

1) Homefield advantage

2) The Eagles have a history of getting beaten by the Seahawks. Pete's note: Although the Eagles have lost two of their last three against the Seahawks, Andy Reid is 3-0 in Seattle.

3) The Seahawks have an underrated defense, we're starting Vince Young and scrub receivers, and we refuse to run the ball.

4) This is an EXTREMELY short week and the eagles had to fly six hours to Seattle Wednesday.

5) Seattle is coming off a loss where they blew a fourth quarter 10-point lead, so they won't be complacent.

6) The Eagles were DESTROYED by the Patriots and are broken.