Pete's Picks: NFL Week 13

Finally, a game worthy of Monday night.

After years of averaging a 50% turnover rate in its playoff field, this may finally be the season that the NFL goes according to plan. In the AFC, the Saints and Lions are the only 2011 postseason teams that are longshots to return. The Falcons, 49ers, Giants, and Packers are all favorites to clinch playoff spots. The AFC is even more settled, with the Texans, Ravens, Broncos, and Patriots comfortably in position to repeat as division champions. If the Steelers fall out of the wild card spot, they'll probably be overtaken by the Bengals, yet another 2011 playoff team. For a change, the NFL may not be able to trumpet the parity horn this January.

Last week: 10-6
Regular season: 91-81-4

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills

I named Chad Henne my Best Offensive Sub in this week's Next Man Up after his second straight impressive game. His solid play could earn him the Jaguars' starting quarterback job in 2013, or at the very least hold off the awful Tim Tebow rumors for another few weeks. 

The Pick: Jaguars (+6)

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears

This may be the last week we get to enjoy the best cornerback tandem in the league, Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. I don't think they'll disappoint.

The Pick: Seahawks (+3.5)

Pro Football Focus: Next Man Up, Week 12

How did injuries affect last week's NFL games? This week's Next Man Up column highlights how the Jaguars may already have their next franchise quarterback, how the Ravens are surviving with a decimated defense, and how the Steelers and Packers are falling behind in the playoff race without two key playmakers. You can read the full article here:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/29/next-man-up-week-12/

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My Week 13 Thursday Night Football Pick: Saints at Falcons

Mike Nolan could be the best coaching hire of the offseason.

The Falcons are 10-1, which makes me happy because they were my Week 1 pick to win the NFC Championship game. I love what defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is doing there. I've broken down film from this year's Falcons team and last year's, and comparing former DC Brian Van Gorder's scheme to the changes that Nolan has installed is like going from checkers to chess.

However, the Falcons have been playing with fire a bit too much, going 7-1 in games decided by one score. The Saints are desperate and have won the last four games in this rivalry. This one again will be close, and I think this will be a rare time where a break doesn't go Atlanta's way.

The Pick: Saints (+3.5)

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Odds found here.

Pete's Picks: NFL Week 12

Packers-Giants is becoming one of the best rivalries in the league.

I was a half-point away from being perfect on Thanksgiving. The half point always gets ya. 

Last week: 7-6-1
Regular season: 81-75-4

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

In the last three years, the Bears are 24-12 when Jay Cutler starts and 2-5 when he doesn't.

The Pick: Bears (N/A)

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

I'll gladly take a 4-point home underdog with a QB who threw for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns last week.

The Pick: Jaguars (+4) 

Pro Football Focus: Packers at Giants Preview

I cannot wait for Sunday Night Football. This may be the game of the year. Here are my 3 matchups to focus on when the Packers visit the Giants:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/23/3tfo-packers-giants-week-12/

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Pro Football Focus: Next Man Up, Week 11

As the injuries pile up, team depth becomes more and more of a factor in the fate of NFL teams. See which backups in San Francisco, Philadelphia, Arizona, and Oakland distinguished themselves, for better and worse, in my Week 11 edition of Next Man Up:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/22/next-man-up-week-11/

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Pete's Picks: NFL Week 11

It's always nice to add a new face to an old rivalry.

It was disheartening to see so many quarterbacks fall with injuries last week. Please remember that the next time Roger Goodell says the phrase "18-game season." 

Last week: 8-6
Regular season: 74-69-3

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons

Breaking down the tape of this game for Pro Football Focus will be my first in-depth look at either of these teams. Matt Ryan's case for being MVP goes beyond the Falcons' 8-1 record; he's our highest graded passer.

The Pick: Falcons (-8.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

In a division with Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Ryan, the best offense in the NFC South belongs to...the Bucs? Since its bye week, Tampa Bay has gone 4-1 while outscoring its opponents 178 to 118. 

The Pick: Buccaneers (-1.5) 

My Week 11 Thursday Night Football Pick: Dolphins at Bills

The Bills can't give the ball to C.J. Spiller enough tonight.

I have enough Bills fans friends to know that their fan base is eternally optimistic, even when they have every reason not to be. I don't know how Buffalo is going to contain Cameron Wake, who leads the league with 56 quarterback pressures. I don't know how its last-ranked run defense is going to stop Reggie Bush. And as shaky as Ryan Tannehill has been the last couple of weeks, that's how Ryan Fitzpatrick has been for the entire season. And yet I'm taking the Bills. They've played the Texans and Patriots tough the last two weeks, while the Dolphins didn't even show up against the lowly Titans. I'm banking on a huge game from C.J. Spiller.

The Pick: Bills (-2.5)

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Odds found here.

Image found here.

Pro Football Focus: Next Man Up, Week 10

After a week where we saw four quarterbacks fall to injury, team depth is certainly top of mind for NFL fans. As always, I broke down some notable injury replacement performances in my Week 10 edition of Next Man Up. Which backup quarterback hurt his team's offense the most? Click here to find out:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/15/next-man-up-week-10/

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Pete's Picks: NFL Week 10

Peyton Manning is on track for his fifth MVP award.

Finally, I had the big picks week that I was looking for the entire first half of the season. I'm now back over .500 and not looking back. 

Last Week: 11-3

Regular Season: 66-63-3 

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens

Danell Ellerbe is stepping in splendidly for Ray Lewis, but Joe Flacco has a combined 300 passing yards in the last two games.

The Pick: Raiders (+7)

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

Peyton Manning has five straight games with three passing touchdowns, and looks every bit in line for his fifth MVP award. 

The Pick: Broncos (-4)

Pro Football Focus: Next Man Up, Week 9

In my new feature for Pro Football Focus, titled Next Man Up (shout-out to my friend/marketing expert Corey for the name), I hand out awards for the best and worst injury subs from the previous week's games. This week's winners and losers come from the Steelers, Eagles, Ravens, and Giants. And as much as I didn't want to, I had to single out a fellow Boston College grad for an awful game. You can read the full article here:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/08/next-man-up-week-9/

And as for my Thursday Night Football pick, I can't tell you how close I was to picking the Colts as one of my surprise AFC playoff teams. Instead, I chose the Titans and Bills. Wish I could have that one back. I don't think that Andrew Luck will get his fifth 300+ yard game of the season to break Peyton Manning's rookie record, but I do think that he'll do enough to beat a disheartened Jaguars team.

The Pick: Colts (-3)

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Odds found here.

Pete's Picks: NFL Week 9

This Steelers-Giants game will have a different feel to it.

Apologies for not getting my Thursday Night pick up (I went with the Chargers, by the way). I've been a refugee this week, as my Manhattan apartment building still waits for the power to return. Thankfully, my girlfriend has been nice enough to host me for the entire week while tolerating me endlessly staring into my laptop to type football nonsense. I owe her, big time.

Last Week: 9-5

Regular Season: 55-60-3 

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals

Only one of the Broncos nine remaining opponents currently has a winning record. First round bye, anyone?

The Pick: Broncos (-3.5)

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Ravens coach John Harbaugh is 4-0 in the week after a bye.

The Pick: Ravens (-3.5)

Pro Football Focus: My Steelers-Giants Week 9 Preview

It's going to be an emotional game this Sunday at MetLife Stadium. Here's my preview of what to focus on when the Steelers visit the Giants:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/02/3tfo-steelers-giants-week-9/

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Pro Football Focus: Next Man Up, Week 8

A couple of weeks ago, the PFF guys gave me my first feature assignment, where I analyzed the best and worst free agent signings of the offseason. You can find that here:

Free Agent Dividends

Now, they've given me the chance to do a weekly feature on a topic that plays an understated role in each team's fate: injuries. In Next Man Up, I will analyze the best and worst performances from that week's injury replacements. In the first edition of the column, I took a look at a rising star in Green Bay, a recurring disappointment in Chicago, New York’s boom-or-bust safety, and a dire protection problem in St. Louis:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/01/next-man-up/

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.