My 2013 Season Picks

So I haven't posted here in quite some time, since I'm now writing primarily for Pro Football Focus (you can find all of my offseason articles here). But a bunch of folks have asked me for my 2013 predictions, so I figured here is as good a place to put them as any. If I'm right, expect me to link back to this quite a few times. If I'm wrong, then I'll drop this faster than Danny Trevathan crossing a goal line.

AWARDS

MVP: Peyton Manning
Offensive Player of the Year: C.J. Spiller
Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt
Offensive Rookie of the Year: DeAndre Hopkins
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Barkevious Mingo
Coach of the Year: Andy Reid

DIVISION FINISHES

AFC East
1. Patriots
2. Bills
3. Dolphins
4. Jets

AFC North
1. Bengals
2. Ravens (wild card)
3. Steelers
4. Browns

AFC South
1. Texans
2. Colts
3. Jaguars
4. Titans

AFC West
1. Broncos
2. Chiefs (wild card)
3. Chargers
4. Raiders

NFC East
1. Giants
2. Cowboys (wild card)
3. Eagles
4. Redskins

NFC North
1. Packers
2. Bears
3. Lions
4. Vikings

NFC South
1. Buccaneers
2. Saints
3. Falcons
4. Panthers

NFC West
1. Seahawks
2. 49ers (wild card)
3. Rams
4. Cardinals

PLAYOFFS

Wild Card Round
Bengals over Chiefs
Ravens over Texans
49ers over Buccaneers
Giants over Cowboys

Divisional Round
Broncos over Bengals
Patriots over Ravens
Seahawks over 49ers
Packers over Giants

Championship Round
Broncos over Patriots
Packers over Seahawks

Super Bowl XLVIII
Broncos over Packers

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My Super Bowl XLVII Pick

I've been torn on this game for the past two weeks. On the one hand, the 49ers have the better roster. Their defense alone could carry them to a victory by itself, but once you throw in Jim Harbaugh's offensive genius and Colin Kaepernick's dual-threat ability, it's tough to imagine San Francisco losing to anyone right now. But judging by recent history, the Ravens can't be dismissed. They've won a lot of close games, have looked dreadful as recently as Week 15, and really have no business even being here. But that's the exact same thing you could have said about last year's New York Giants, who, like Baltimore, transformed themselves to the point where you could throw the first 15 weeks of the season out the window.

I've gone back and forth long enough. I'm picking the 49ers. As flawed as last year's Giants were, they had a huge mismatch that the Patriots couldn't overcome: Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham versus the dreadful New England secondary. That was their biggest advantage going into the game, and that's what they ultimately used to win the title. I look at this game, and I see no such mismatch that favors the Ravens. "Hey diddle diddle, Ray Rice up the middle" will find NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis waiting for him. Bryant McKinnie and Michael Oher are going to have their hands full with Aldon Smith, Justin Smith, and Ahmad Brooks. As nice as the Ray Lewis story is, he's struggled mightily on the field this postseason (-6.5 PFF grade). And the Ravens secondary isn't going to easily shut down Kaepernick and Michael Crabtree (who I've already said has become one of the best receivers in the NFL). The biggest difference for the Ravens on this run has been their deep passing, but this 49er secondary will be the best Baltimore has seen this postseason.

Every pick I've seen for the Ravens involves some talk of destiny or momentum, but give me the better team. Without a huge advantage in any matchup, I don't think the Ravens will win this championship.

The Pick: 49ers (-4)

Update: Since it is the Super Bowl, I'll give you my final score: 49ers 27, Ravens 17, with a late David Akers field goal putting it out of reach for Baltimore.

Last Week: 3-6-1
Regular Season: 132-119-5 


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Conference Championship Picks

I only trust one of these QBs on Sunday, and it's not the one with the better playoff record.

The bad news is that an 0-4 performance last week guarantees me a losing record in this year's playoffs (a far step down from my 10-1 mark from last year). The good news is that my preseason Super Bowl pick of Patriots vs. Falcons is still alive. I'm feeling much more confident about one of those teams than the other.

Last Week: 0-4
Playoffs: 3-5
Regular Season: 132-119-5

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons

As a BC alumnus and someone who dislikes judging a player's career on the outcome of three games, I was happy to see Matt Ryan throw the monkey off his back in his final drive against the Seahawks. But I was troubled that his defense put him in that position to begin with. In the second half, Atlanta's D struggled to contain Russell Wilson's mobility, just as they struggled in two meetings with Cam Newton in the regular season. If Colin Kaepernick is even half as good as he was against the Packers, the 49ers will still move the ball on Sunday. And after I just spent a couple of days breaking down Michael Crabtree's development into one of the most complete wide receivers in the league (you can read my PFF article here), I'm convinced that he'll have a much bigger impact than the one reception and three yards that he gained in last year's NFC Championship.

Divisional Round Playoff Picks

A less-than-healthy Justin Smith may not be enough to stop Aaron Rodgers.

Just like last year, a ho-hum Wild Card Weekend was salvaged by some drama in the late Sunday game. I'm in the party that thought it was irresponsible of Mike Shanahan to leave his limping quarterback on the field. I understand that Robert Griffin is a warrior and I have no doubt that he lobbied to stay in. But a coach's job is to look past the opinions of his players and do what's in the best interests, both short-term and long-term, of the team. I don't understand how some people gave Shanahan a pass for botching a decision that every baseball manager has to make when his starting pitcher pleas for one more inning. And if Shanahan decided that leaving Griffin in was indeed the best thing for the Redskins, then he should have owned up to that. Instead, he hid behind some "he told me it was okay and I believed him" defense, shifting responsibility from himself to his player. Shanahan is often referred to as a Hall of Fame coach, despite the fact that he's won one playoff game in the 14 years since John Elway retired. If his bad decision ends up hurting his franchise quarterback's career, he may be waiting a long time for the second.

Last Week: 3-1
Regular Season: 132-119-5

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos

Disclaimer: Back in Week 1,  I chose the Patriots over the Broncos and Falcons over the Packers in the Championship games, so my picks are a bit biased towards that outcome. The pick I'm most confident in is this one. The Broncos haven't lost since starting 2-3, and even their defeats came against teams that are still in the playoff race. Towards the end of the season it seemed like Peyton Manning was merely tinkering with his offense every Sunday, trying new plays and different combinations while blowing out the Raiders on the side.  The Ravens couldn't stop Knowshon Moreno or Von Miller in Week 15, and they'll now be relying on two players, Ray Lewis and Michael Oher, whose reputations far outweigh their performance. Manning has had some of the most puzzling playoff defeats of the last decade, but I don't see that happening here.

The Pick: Broncos (-9.5)

End of Season Awards and Wild Card Weekend Picks

How important is an elite running back in a quarterback-dominated league?

I can honestly saw that I've never had an NFL season pass by as quickly as this one did. I feel like we've only had a few weeks of football, and yet somehow the playoffs are here. Without further ado, here are my regular season awards.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
The frontrunner for this award changed on a weekly basis throughout the season, and in the end it was a dark horse who eked past the favorites at the wire. Andrew Luck would win this race in most other years, but his high interception mark and poor accuracy drops him from contention. It's tough to separate Wilson and Robert Griffin III with statistics alone. Wilson has thrown six more touchdowns, Griffin has thrown five fewer interceptions. Griffin ranks third in our PFF QB Rating and second in our Accuracy Percentage, Wilson ranks fourth in both categories. Griffin had nearly twice as many rushing yards, but Wilson stretched the field with nearly twice as many deep-passing yards. I couldn't fault anyone for going with Griffin, but I'm choosing Wilson because he led his team to a better record against tougher competition, going 11-5 overall and 5-1 against teams that finished with a winning record while Griffin went 9-6 and 3-3, respectively. Perhaps we can just give the award to the winner of this week's playoff game?

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Casey Hayward, CB, Green Bay Packers
Some will see Luke Kuechly's league-leading 164 tackles and hand him this award, but that would be mistaking activity for productivity. Kuechly had a dreadful September and his eagerness to make a play often got him in trouble in coverage, where he surrendered the seventh-most receiving yards of any inside linebacker. Without the first-round hype, Hayward terrorized opposing quarterbacks by allowing zero touchdowns and snagging six interceptions. QBs had a 31.1 passer rating when throwing at him, the lowest mark for any starting cornerback in the league.

Comeback Player of the Year: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos
My least favorite award because the criteria is so vague and up to interpretation. I still can't believe the season Adrian Peterson had after tearing his ACL just over one year ago. Nevertheless, I think we all knew that AP would eventually return to his elite production eventually. On the other hand, as Manning missed an entire season with a neck injury, there was a point where we thought that he'd never play another snap in the NFL. Instead, he's returned to his usual spot as one of the best players the game has ever seen.

Pete's Picks: NFL Week 17

If I were Mike Smith, I'd risk Matt Ryan's health to hold onto some precious late-season momentum.

After the Green Bay Packers went 15-1-and-one-and-done in the playoffs last year, I once again questioned the strategy of playoff-bound teams that bench their starters in Week 17. I wrote:

Aaron Rodgers quickly dismissed questions that he was rusty after not attempting a pass since Christmas night, but he sure missed some throws against the Giants that he usually makes.  Are coaches foolish to rest their starters at the end of the season?  Does momentum matter so much that they should risk injury in a meaningless game to keep their team sharp?

To identify which teams could have lost momentum, I looked back at recent ones that had clinched a bye heading into the final week of the season and a) didn't play their quarterback at all, or b) benched their quarterback at halftime in a game that they eventually lost. It's a bit of a small sample size, but of the 12 such teams since 2005 that qualify, eight lost in their first playoff game. 

In a parity-laden league that makes regular-season records meaningless in January, late-season momentum is a previous commodity. If I were a coach, I'd think twice before throwing mine away.

Last Week: 9-6-1
Regular Season: 123-112-5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

As the only team to have locked up a bye already, the Falcons become this year's test subject for the momentum vs. health debate. Mike Smith says that he'll play to win Sunday. For his sake, I hope he's telling the truth.

The Pick: Falcons (N/A)

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

If it not for J.J. Watt's unbelievable season, Geno Atkins would get my Defensive Player of the Year vote. He's tallied 75 QB pressures this season, the second-highest total of any player in the entire league. That's unheard of for a defensive tackle.

The Pick: Bengals (-2.5)

PFF: 49ers-Seahawks Week 16 Preview

The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks last met on a Thursday night back in Week 7, and combined for 19 points in a game where both teams had more yards rushing than passing. With the way these two offenses have since thrived under their young quarterbacks, we may see more than 19 points in the first quarter. Will the 49ers tarnish the Seahawks’ perfect home record and clinch the NFC West? Or will Pete Carroll earn his first NFL victory over Jim Harbaugh? Here are three matchups that could decide the outcome of Sunday night's big game:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/21/3tfo-49ers-seahawks-week-16/

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Pete's Picks: NFL Week 16

John Kuhn: sometimes, a last name is enough to get you into a Pro Bowl.

Pro Bowl fan ballots have been closed, and yesterday the NFL released the top vote-getters. Reading this list is an exercise in masochism for me, as many fans choose they names that are most-recognizable, rather than those who are most-deserving. I was at least happy to see these guys on the list:

1. J.J. Watt - Last week was the first time this season that I watched Texans game film. If Watt doesn't win the Defensive Player of the Year award, there is no justice.

2. Rob Gronkowski - Even after missing the last few games, Gronk is still arguably the best receiving tight end , and definitely the best blocking tight end.

3. Von Miller - If not for Watt, Miller might get my DPOY vote.

4. Mike Iupati - Some of the biggest Pro Bowl injustices happen on the offensive line, but this 49er guard's devastating run-blocking has earned him this recognition.

5. Justin Smith - It's good to see everyone catch onto the man who we voted the No. 2 player in the NFL last year.

And here were the players who don't deserve to be anywhere near the Pro Bowl:

1. John Kuhn - He's an average blocker who is rewarded because Packers fans like to yell "KUUUUUUUUUUHN."

2. Michael Oher - He's been a disappointment since the Ravens moved him to the blind side this year, but wasn't he the guy who starred in a movie with Sandra Bullock?

3. Logan Mankins - There are better guards who have played more than eight games this season. 

4. Bernard Pollard - I can only assume this is every Patriot-hater's way of rewarding him for hurting Rob Gronkowski in the playoffs last year.

5. Jeff Saturday - He belongs in the Hall of Fame one day, but this year he has the worst PFF run-blocking grade of any center in the league.

Last Week: 9-7
Regular Season: 114-106-4

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions

The Lions have had some tough breaks this year, but losing by 28 to Ryan Lindley's Cardinals was inexcusable.

The Pick: Falcons (-3.5)

Oakland Raiders at Carolina Panthers

I hope this late push by the Panthers saves Ron Rivera's job. Barring a historically-awful season or player mutiny, every coach should be given at least three seasons to prove himself.

The Pick: Panthers (-7.5)

PFF: Next Man Up, Week 15

How have some key backups kept the Redskins and Seahawks rolling towards the playoffs? And could injuries cost the Bears and Giants a spot in the postseason? Take a look in this week's Next Man Up:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/20/next-man-up-week-15/

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Pete's Picks: NFL Week 15

In a 16-team playoff field, the Jets would control their destiny right now.

So the NFL is considering expanding it's playoff to comical NBA/NHL type levels. Let me be the 1,000th person with common sense to tell you that this is a bad idea. As I wrote in one of my first posts two years ago, the playoffs are about excitement, not justice. There's no doubt that adding another two or four playoff teams would create excitement in the first round, as well as in the final weeks of the regular season. 

But you have to draw the line somewhere. Since the NFL expanded to eight divisions in 2002, six teams with a .500 record or worse made the playoffs. If the playoffs had included 16 teams, that number would have been TWENTY-TWO. Twenty-two teams that couldn't even muster a winning record, but still could have a chance to win the Super Bowl in January. Short-term, I see the dollar-signs. Long term, the law of diminishing returns still applies. Even for a product as popular as football.

Last week: 6-10
Regular season: 105-99-4

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons

My PFF preview for this game breaks down the success of the Giants' inside runs, Tony Gonzalez's poor playoff performance at the Meadowlands, and Asante Samuel's startling success versus Eli Manning. Click here for the full analysis. Matt Ryan rarely loses at the Georgia Dome, but I like the Giants' offensive balance more than Atlanta's right now.

The Pick: Giants (+2) 

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens 

Back in Week 8, a friend asked me who the best team in the NFL is, and I chose the Broncos. I haven't changed my mind.

The Pick: Broncos (-3)

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears 

Clay Matthews is back just in the nick of time. Without him, the Packers had no playmakers in their front seven.

The Pick: Packers (-3)