As I sit here in Chicago, 200 miles and 20 hours away from Indianapolis, I'm thinking back to the windy road that the Giants and their fans took to get to this point. There was an August riddled with injuries, defections, a holdout, and a Dream Team. It was the worst Giants offseason I could remember. There was a demoralizing loss in Washington on an emotional September 11th. There was the relief of Victor Cruz's non-fumble in Arizona. The eerie Super Bowl XLII rematch. The walk out of MetLife Stadium after another crushing blow from the Eagles. The blowout in New Orleans on Monday Night, after which I still had hope. The comeback in Dallas, before which I nearly lost hope. The battle for bragging rights. The playoff for the playoffs. The Hail Mary. The return of Lawrence Tynes. All culminating in the second unlikely Giants Super Bowl trip in four years.
Win or lose on Sunday, it's been a wonderful season. The road was never clear, but it was fun getting here.
WHY THE GIANTS WILL WIN SUPER BOWL XLVI
1. Julian Edelman is a weak link on an already weak chain - Many analysts are focusing on Edelman as the weak link of the Patriots defense, but that would imply that the rest of New England's secondary is respectable. It is not. Before Bill Belichick moved him to safety, Devin McCourty surrendered 1,004 yards during the regular season, second worst among all defensive backs according to Pro Football Focus. Kyle Arrington, now New England's number one cornerback, was not much better. The 810 yards he gave up was 10th worst in the league. Sterling Moore has held up decently since he replaced McCourty, but he's only faced nine targets in the playoffs so far. Safeties James Ihedigbo and Patrick Chung have their own struggles protecting the deep sidelines, the area of the field that Eli Manning loves attacking most. All eyes will be on Edelman when he enters the game, but the fact is that any Giants receiver versus any Patriots defensive back is a mismatch in New York's favor.
2. Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez get no help from the outside - In my game review of the Patriots offense versus the Giants defense, I noted that New York single-covered New England's outside receivers so they could flood the middle of the field with defenders, a gameplan that worked effectively for the Steelers the previous week. Other teams followed that blueprint to make Deion Branch, Chad Ochocinco, and the Patriots' other outside receivers relatively invisible for the second half of the season. If Corey Webster and Aaron Ross can again shut down Branch and company, then the Giants will have five other defenders to cover Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Rob Gronkowski over the middle.
3. Tom Brady is human, and has been for a while - Over the past two weeks, a lot of Patriots fans have told me that Tom Brady rarely has two bad games in a row. I expect Brady to bounce back from his two interception stinker against Baltimore, but perhaps not strongly as New England may need him to. Case in point: in his last AFC Championship game, Brady threw three interceptions against the Chargers for a 66.4 passer rating. Two weeks later, the Giants harassed him into an unspectacular performance in the Super Bowl. His 266 yards, 1 touchdown and 82.5 passer rating was simply average.
The fact is, Brady has been average in the postseason for some time now. In 12 playoff games since the 2004 Super Bowl, Brady is 7-5 with 255 yards per game and a 1.5 TD to INT ratio. His 86.7 passer rating in that time is lower than Eli Manning's 87.5 playoff mark. One of my coworkers, a Pats fan, surmised that Brady might be trying to do too much, considering how New England has leaned on his arm more and more in recent years. With a questionable defense and running game, they'll lean on it again this Sunday. Don't get me wrong, no quarterback is more capable of throwing his team on his back to win a Super Bowl than Brady is. However, recent history shows that the odds of him doing that aren't as strong as they once were.
WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL WIN SUPER BOWL XLVI
1. The Patriots' pass rush, not the Giants', will decide this game - Last night at the bar, our friend Pat asked us who will be the difference maker in Super Bowl XLVI. Familiar names like Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz were mentioned, but I went with Vince Wilfork. Other than Manning's maturation, the biggest difference between the 2011 Giants and the 2007 Giants is that New York's offensive line, after being a strength for so many years, is now the weakest unit on the team. Analysts are raving about the Giants pass rush, but it was the Patriots' defensive line that was more dominant the last time these two teams played. Manning was pressured 15 of the 42 times he dropped back to pass, often from just a four man rush. Andre Carter, the main antagnoist in that game, has since been placed on injured reserve, but Wilfork has stepped up in recent weeks to wreak havoc in the middle of the line. The Giants pass rush was the story of Super Bowl XLVI, but we may see the Patriots defensive line take the headlines in the rematch.
2. New York is soft in the middle - Although the Giants have been decent at limiting big plays this year (they allowed the 4th fewest 40+ yard passing plays during the regular season), the middle of their defense has always been their weakness. Despite New York shutting down the Patriots' outside receivers with single-coverage in Week Nine, Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez shredded the Giants for 272 yards. In the second half, Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien was able to get some one-on-one matchups over the middle, and none of them favored the Giants. The Patriots offensive line has been one of the best in the league this year. If the Giants front four can't get past them, then Brady will find one of his three favorite targets over the middle.
3. The Belichick factor - In these teams' last three meetings, the Giants have shown that they match up well with the Patriots. But it's hard to think that one of the best football coaches in NFL history will be bested by the same team thrice. Whatever advantages the Giants seemingly have, they won't capitalize on them without a fight. Edelman will struggle to cover Cruz by himself, so Belichick will change his coverage schemes to help him. The Patriots offensive line will struggle at times to hold back the Giants' pass rush, so Belichick will utilize up-tempo drives and quick passes. The Patriots have weaknesses that the Giants can exploit, but I expect Belichick to put his players in a position to succeed, as he always does.
MY PICK
There are matchup advantages on both sides, but I think that the Giants have the biggest one with their three receivers going against a Patriots secondary that, although improved, hasn't been tested much in the last three months. Here are the quarterbacks that New England has beaten beaten in their 10 game winning streak: Mark Sanchez, Tyler Palko, Vince Young, Dan Orlovsky, Rex Grossman, Tim Tebow, Matt Moore, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tebow again, and Joe Flacco. Arrington and McCourty played admirably against the Giants in their first meeting, but not having Nicks allowed the Patriot safeties to devote constant attention to Cruz and Manningham. With Nicks out there as a third threat instead of Ramses Barden, I don't see how the Patriots can cover the Giants receivers if their pass rush doesn't get to Manning.
As for the Patriots offense, I believe that Gronkowski's ankle is one of the few Super Bowl storylines that deserves all the attention it is getting. I'm reminded of Dwight Freeney's ankle injury going into Super Bowl XLIV. In the first half, Freeney played like an All Pro and everyone assumed that he was indeed healthy. But then his ankle stiffened during the extra-long halftime show and he was a non-factor for the rest of the game. Gronkowski could enter the game and get involved early, much to the delight of New England's fans. But as the game goes along, his injury could slow him down to the point where the Giants can focus their attention on Welker and Hernandez.
The Giants were not as good of a team as the Patriots this season. Their patchwork defense frequently put them in situations that the offense had to miraculously climb out of. They often played down to, and sometimes lost to, less-talented opponents. They gave up more points than they scored in the regular season. But I believe they've been more tested than the Patriots have, in a much tougher playoff field. The NFL playoffs have shown us that if a team gets hot in January, then you can throw the regular season out the window. No team has played better than the Giants have in the past month, and I believe that they'll keep it up for one more game, revenge be damned.
Giants 27, Patriots 24
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The fourth member of our party flies in from Boston tonight, and we head out to Indianapolis first thing tomorrow morning. I'll be tweeting and posting photos and observations along the way, as well as a few more bits of analysis before kickoff. Keep checking back in as we head into this wonderful weekend.
Certainly a fair and reasonable prediction.
ReplyDeleteJust 2 things I would point out:
-It is interesting that people continually hold the Patriots regular season against them (in quoting weak competition, worst D in the league etc.) while ignoring their playoff improvement, and yet noone seems to be mentioning the Giants very mediocre regular season (9-7 for christ sake with HOME losses to the Redskins and Seahawks), only their recent playoff success. Point being, both teams are much improved, but only one seems to be getting credit for it.
-Unlike 2007, the Giants are not the underdogs in this game. Line, seeds, and records be damned, everyone is picking them to win this game, and they know it. They have been talking, a LOT. To the point where Belichick can very reasonably and convincingly play the underdog card with his team. This alone won't win the game, but I've been surprised by how much barking Coughlin has allowed, because that's not an advantage I would want to cede to the other side. It has been a while, but the Patriots as underdogs have always been an extremely dangerous team. These kind of emotional edges and things don't decide games, but I do think they can have an impact on a team's mentality.
Patriots 31
Giants 27
Belichick and Brady gain some measure of revenge for 2007 and cement their respective spots as the best in NFL history.