Hunger Games: Is Andrew Luck Walking Into A Death Trap?

A scene from The Hunger Games, a book based on Andrew Luck's rookie season.

On Monday, I finally took a friend's advice and started reading The Hunger Games, a best-selling novel that is sure to challenge some box office records in two weeks. It tells a tale of a 16 year old girl living in a post-apocalyptic America, where an annual adolescent fight to the death determines regional superiority. After being selected to represent her downtrodden district, the heroine is whisked away to The Capitol and presented with feasts, servants, and luxuries she could never imagine. Then, after days of ceremonies where she is showered with praise and cheered by millions of fans, she is sent into an arena to face certain death in front of a televised audience. In other words, she is the fictional version of Andrew Luck.

All eyes are on Peyton Manning and which city he will grace with the final years of his Hall of Fame career. But as reporters flock to Miami, Washington, and Seattle, I find myself looking back to Indianapolis, where in seven weeks the Colts will crown Luck their new franchise quarterback. Being the Number 1 overall pick is an honor that Luck will cherish and benefit from. But no rookie in NFL history has walked into a tougher situation. Consider:

- As the Number 1 overall pick in the draft, Luck is expected to bring an immediate return on investment. He will start from Day One, without any time to learn behind a veteran quarterback.

- Cam Newton and Andy Dalton will be a tough act to follow. Not so long ago, coaches and fans didn't panic if a rookie quarterback turned the ball over, looked skittish in the pocket, and appeared helpless against elite defenses. Think back to 2004, when the Ravens defense mercilessly mocked Eli Manning during his audibles and harassed him into a 0.0 passer rating and a second half benching. But with the recent rookie success of Newton, Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, and Sam Bradford, expectations have changed. Eyebrows will be raised if Luck doesn't either make the playoffs or set a rookie record. Throw in the "once in a generation" label (given how often I hear this phrase, apparently a generation now lasts three years), and Luck can't afford to have an up-and-down, Christian Ponder-like, season.

- Luck is not only competing against the past, but also the present. After he's taken, some team will pay a king's ransom to trade up for Robert Griffin III. Some draft analysts are even suggesting that they'd rather have RG3's potential than Luck's pedigree. If Griffin outperforms Luck, either on the stats sheet or in the wins column, then it's only a matter of time until some overweight Indianapolis sports talk host brings up Ryan Leaf comparisons.

- As high as expectations are for Luck, the talent of his supporting cast couldn't be lower. He is joining an awful team by any standard. The 2011 Colts offense was 28th in the league in points per game and 30th in yards per game. Their best rusher, Donald Brown, had 645 yards on the ground. Their offensive line was the ninth worst in the league according to Pro Football Focus. Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon, who combined for 59% of Indy's passing production, are both leaving in free agency. And there are rumors that offensive stalwarts Jeff Saturday, Dallas Clark, and Joseph Addai may also be cut. Last year, Dalton and Newton had A.J. Green and Steve Smith to lean on. Unless the Colts strike oil in the draft's later rounds, Luck will have to carry this wasteland of an offense all by himself.

High expectations, fierce competition, subpar teams...these are all usual plights for a Number 1 draft pick. But what makes Luck's situation unique is that he is succeeding an all-time great quarterback who has yet to pass his prime. There are 21 Hall of Fame quarterbacks from the modern era who were the faces of their franchise (counting Brett Favre). Only four times has a team tried to replace that quarterback immediately with a rookie (Jerry Tagge, Bert Jones, Frank Ryan and Quincy Carter succeeded Bart Starr, Johnny Unitas, Norm Van Brocklin and Troy Aikman, respectively). Only two of those rookie quarterbacks were first round draft picks (Tagge was taken 11th overall, Jones was taken 2nd). Yet never before in NFL history has a rookie top draft pick tried to replace a Hall of Fame franchise quarterback, while his predecessor was still playing at a high level elsewhere.

The Favre saga showed how staunchly loyal a fan base can be to it's old hero. Imagine the depression in Indianapolis next season if the Colts stumble to a 2-7 start while Peyton has the Chiefs atop the AFC West and Griffin is putting up video game stats in Washington. Even with a decent rookie season, Luck still may face harsh criticism given the high standards set for him.

Luck won't complain, nor should he. This is the honor that has been bestowed upon him, the top choice of our country's Hunger Games. On April 26th, the Colts will select him as the new champion of their region. All offseason, he will be interviewed and dissected while preparing for the coming test ahead. Millions of Indiana faithful will applaud him, anxious to see him compete. And then, on a Sunday afternoon in September, he'll enter the arena, with the weight of a legend on his shoulders and few friends on offense to help him lift it. I hope he'll survive, but the odds are not in his favor.

Follow me at @BostonGiant.

Image found here.