Long-Term Investments: Predicting the Future Of the 14 Franchise Players

Plays like his critical Super Bowl drop make it hard to properly evaluate Wes Welker.

Drew Brees is this year's poster child for contract disputes, but he was only one of 21 players who received the franchise tag this offseason. Seven of them have been rewarded by their teams with long-term contracts. Seven have signed their franchise tender and will report to training camp. The remaining seven, who have not signed, are candidates to hold out.

It's these latter two groups who are facing a big deadline on Monday. After then, teams can no longer negotiate long-term contracts with their franchise players, who will then have to play this season under their tag tenders.

This deadline, imposed by the new CBA, works out brilliantly for the owners. In the past, a player's holdout could push a GM to give him a long-term deal (see: Chris Johnson last year). But by establishing a rule that ties their own hands, teams have stolen away that power. These tagged players can boycott practices and games out of sheer frustration, but now they have nothing to gain from it.

So what will happen with these 14 players still facing the franchise tag? Will they get the long-term security they crave? Will they reluctantly play this year under the franchise tag? Or will they protest and hold out into August? Let's take a look at each player's situation and make some predictions.

Wes Welker, Patriots

Status: Signed $9.5 million tender

The debate at the crux of the Wes Welker negotiations is whether his prolific production is more due to talent or to New England's system. He has more receptions than any other player since he joined the Patriots in 2007, but he's not the prototypical elite receiver who can routinely outrun cornerbacks and outjump safeties.

Nothing exemplified this conundrum more than Welker's critical drop in the Super Bowl. Immediately after that play, announcer Chris Collinsworth remarked that "Welker makes that catch 100 times out of 100." But that's simply not true. As research guru Scott Kacsmar explains here, only eleven of Welker's 554 receptions with the Patriots have been on passes that traveled more than 20 yards. Welker doesn't routinely make those types of catches, and that makes him seem more replaceable than a Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald. 

Prediction: Ultimately, the Patriots and Welker won't find equal ground on the system vs. talent debate to reach an extension. He'll play under the franchise tag.

Ray Rice, Ravens 

Status: Hasn't signed $7.7 million tender 

The Ravens have every reason to sign Ray Rice to a long-term deal. At 25 years old and with less than 1,000 carries on his resume, the dynamic back still has years of production ahead of him. Baltimore has no proven backup to replace him. And the Ravens don't want to worry about Rice when Joe Flacco's contract expires next year.

However, General Manager Ozzie Newsome has a history of playing hardball with his top players. He let Ray Lewis test the free agent market in 2009. Last year, Newsome tagged Haloti Ngata before signing him to an extension minutes before the deadline.

Prediction: In the eleventh hour, Baltimore shrewdly makes Rice a Raven for years to come.

Matt Forte, Bears

Status: Hasn't signed $7.7 million tender

Matt Forte has some red flags that Rice does not. He's a year older and coming off a significant injury that cost him the last four games of the season. The Bears are also better prepared to live without him after signing Michael Bush this offseason. After seeing the Titans get burned by Chris Johnson's mega-contract last season, many general managers are reluctant to invest big money in even the best running backs. Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy, both younger and with fewer injury questions than Forte, just signed contracts that will pay them about $9 million annually. As much as he protests, the Bears see $7.7 million as a fair price to pay for Forte this season.

Prediction: The Bears will be content to sit on their offer and let Forte hold out into training camp.

Anthony Spencer, Cowboys

Status: Signed $8.9 million tender

The Cowboys seem to have kept Anthony Spencer out of necessity more than desire. He is Dallas' only legitimate pass rusher after DeMarcus Ware, which says more about the team than it does Spencer.  With only 21.5 sacks since the Cowboys drafted him in the first round five years ago, it's put up or shut up time for the outside linebacker.

Prediction: Playing under the franchise tag, Spencer will have one last season to prove to Jerry Jones that he is worth a longer investment.

Cliff Avril, Lions

Status: Hasn't signed $10.6 million tender

Cliff Avril has shown steady progression in each of his four seasons, peaking at a career-high eleven sacks last year. Detroit needs him more than most teams because it lacks depth in it's outside pass rush and it lacks maturity on a young roster. Avril is a team leader who isn't shy about his desire to stay in Detroit for a long time. 

Prediction: Ten million dollars is a high starting point, but the Lions will get a long-term deal done before Monday to keep Avril where he wants to be.

Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs

Status: Hasn't signed $9.5 million tender

Dwayne Bowe's career has been a bumpy ride. He caught nearly 1,000 yards as a rookie, then fell into head coach Todd Haley's doghouse, and then rebounded with a Pro Bowl season in 2010, all the while providing a mix of circus catches and head-scratching drops.

Bowe's history of issues on and off the field make Kansas City reluctant to invest in him past this season, and the development of Jonathan Baldwin may make him expendable next year anyway. 

Prediction: Without a long-term deal, Bowe will hold out long enough for Baldwin to threaten his spot as the Chiefs top receiver.

Tyvon Branch, Raiders

Status: Signed $6.2 million tender

This play, highlighted by Pro Football Focus earlier this week, shows the type of hustle that Tyvon Branch brings to the Raiders' secondary. New general manager Reggie McKenzie has a big mess to clean up from the Al Davis era and is very reluctant to shell out more money, but Oakland could create some much-needed cap space by extending Branch's contract.

Prediction: To get enough cap room to sign the rest of their rookies, Oakland will extend Branch's contract.

Dashon Goldson, 49ers

Status: Hasn't signed $6.2 million tender

Across the Bay, the 49ers have their own franchise safety to deal with.  Dashon Goldson can thank the hype around San Francisco's defense for his Pro Bowl last year, because he's never distinguished himself as a top-tier player. The fact that his six interceptions last year were more than his previous four seasons combined could be a sign of a breakout, or an anomaly. 

Prediction: Still unsure of his true value, the 49ers will let Goldson play this season under the franchise tag.

Brent Grimes, Falcons  

Status: Signed $10.3 million tender

Brent Grimes isn't a household name, but Pro Football Focus graded him as the second-best cornerback in the league last season behind Darrell Revis. But after trading for Asante Samuel, Atlanta is now paying $18 million this year for Grimes, Samuel, and Dunta Robinson. 

Prediction: The Falcons will let Grimes play under the tag this year and reassess their high-priced cornerback investments next offseason.

Fred Davis, Redskins

Status: Signed $5.4 million tender

Fred Davis finished eighth in receiving yards last season among tight ends, despite missing the final four games of the season. It was why he missed those four games (multiple failed drug tests), that make the Redskins reluctant to invest in him long-term. 

Prediction: Davis will play under the franchise tag this season, while auditioning for a remake of Night Court.

Mike Nugent, Bengals

Status: Signed $2.7 million tender

Bengals owner and GM Mike Brown has a reputation of being extremely...careful with money. The last three times he tagged a player, he let them leave the next season without a contract extension. 

Prediction: An average journeyman kicker, Mike Nugent will play under the tag this year with no hope of a long-term deal.

Phil Dawson, Browns

Status: Signed $3.8 million tender

Phil Dawson hit a stellar seven of eight field goals from beyond 50 yards last season in his 13th season with the Browns. That may have justified Cleveland using the tag on him for the second year in a row, but he's still 37 years old and isn't much more than an average kicker. 

Prediction: A long-term deal doesn't make sense for Cleveland, so Dawson will play for his franchise tender this year.

Josh Scobee, Jaguars

Status: Hasn't signed $2.9 million tender

The last of our trio of kickers is the only one who hasn't signed his franchise tender, which is a good indication that a long-term deal is still being negotiated. Josh Scobee has been as inconsistent year-to-year as most other kickers, but he's coming off his best season and is young enough to justify an extension. 

Prediction: The Jaguars will get this small-time deal done before Monday's deadline. 

Drew Brees, Saints

Status: Hasn't signed $16.4 million tender

I can't blame the Saints for playing hardball with Drew Brees. Under the salary cap, no GM should ever hand a blank check to a player, no matter how important he is to the team. These long negotiations may have made the New Orleans fans uneasy and desperate, but there's no chance that this deal falls through. The Saints need their star quarterback too much, and Brees would never destroy his legacy for a few more million dollars in another city. 

Prediction: Brees gets the long-term agreement he deserves, and the people of New Orleans breathe a huge sigh of relief.

I'll post about two articles a week until training camps kick off. In the meantime, follow my daily NFL-related musings on @BostonGiant.

Image found here.