Marry, Boff, Kill: My Fantasy Football Values, Sleepers, and Busts

If you've ever been on a long road trip, odds are that you've played Marry, Boff, Kill. You and your friends may have called it something a bit less eloquent, but for the sake of propriety, let's go with the 30 Rock version:

As I prepare for my fantasy football drafts, I classify each player by whether he's a good value, an under-the-radar sleeper, or a likely bust. It's basically one long game of Marry, Boff, Kill. To help you prepare for your own drafts, here are some of the players I feel most strongly about, in no particular order.

MARRY

Demarco Murray, RB, Cowboys - If I'm going to draft a young running back on a great offense with a checkered injury history, I'd rather have Murray in Round 2 than Ryan Mathews in Round 1. (Note: I wrote this even before Mathews broke his clavicle last night.)

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers - When I hear no logical reason for a player's off year, I chalk it up as an anomaly. KC Joyner charted Rivers with a 2.4% Bad Decision Rate in 2011, making his 20 interceptions seem more like a product of tough luck than poor play.

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans - When a player's bad season is historically unprecedented, then I'm especially willing to overlook it. Unless Johnson's new contract made him the laziest running back the NFL has ever seen, he'll climb back up the fantasy mountain.

Do not be afraid, Shonn Greene. Tebow is with you.

Shonn Greene, RB, Jets - Over the last three seasons, no running back has impressed me less than Greene has. But if Tim Tebow could rise Willis McGahee from the fantasy grave, then he'll do wonders for the Jets' only legitimate running back.

Julio Jones, WR Falcons - A.J. Green had the better stats last season, but if you're looking for a stud sophomore receiver then take the guy with the better quarterback in an offense where defensive coordinators can't triple-team him.

Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers - Finley is one of those post-hype sleepers that's been so overrated, he's underrated. He didn't deserve to be a top-ranked tight end last August based on his potential, but he is too much of a talent to be grouped in the middle of the pack this year. If the Packers were willing to buy low on him this offseason, so should you.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions - Add the best wide receiver in the league to the most pass attempts of any quarterback, and you end up with Stafford's breakout 2011 season. Megatron is in his prime and the Lions' running back situation is a clusterboff (see what I did there?), so 4,750 passing yards are still a realistic expectation.

Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings - Harvin's 967 receiving yards put him 21st amongst receivers last season, which is about where he's getting drafted this year. But throw in his 345 rushing yards, and he outproduced guys like Roddy White and Jordy Nelson. With Adrian Peterson's injury, the Vikings could actually feature Harvin even more than they did last year.

Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts - Wayne is past his prime and no longer has Peyton Manning. But he's being drafted near receivers who aren't even guaranteed a starting position, like Mario Manningham and Justin Blackmon. If Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky can get Wayne 960 yards, I'll take my chances with Andrew Luck.

Randy Moss, WR, 49ers - As I wrote a few weeks ago, the Randy Moss cycle always starts well. He's exactly the kind of upside pick to target in the later rounds of your draft. Just don't count on him to make it to the playoffs.

Darren Sproles, RB, Saints - At the point in your draft where every running back is tagged with questions about injuries or platoons, take the guy who hasn't missed a game in five seasons and is guaranteed 100 pass targets.

Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers - Martin is this year's DeMarco Murray. Patiently stash him on your bench while he fights LeGarrette Blount for carries, and he'll reward you when he comes out on top in November.

Dartboard, Bar Game, Your Man Cave - To use when drafting your kicker. Seriously, the position is a crapshoot. My college friends actually eliminated it completely it in our league. I suggest you do the same.

BOFF

Jared Cook, TE, Titans - If any tight end has the chance to make the Jimmy Graham leap from athletic freak to fantasy superstar, it's Cook. He had 335 yards in his final three games last season.

Jacob Tamme, TE, Broncos - In his last three seasons, Peyton Manning's starting tight end averaged over 60 yards per game.

Titus Young, WR, Lions - In 2011, Nate Burleson had 757 receiving yards in 1,038 snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. Young had 607 yards in 773 snaps. All training camp reports point to Young's usage increasing tremendously

It's out with the old Vincent, in with the new for San Diego.

Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers - Brown's 17.3 yards per catch showed the type of big-play ability that San Diego loves. Robert Meachem and Malcolm Floyd won't keep Brown on the bench.

Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Chiefs - As a rookie, Baldwin hindered his development with a holdout. Now he stands to gain from one, as he takes all first-team reps while Dwayne Bowe sits at home. With Bowe's contract up after this season, the Chiefs are committed to grooming Baldwin as the No. 1 receiver of the future.

Alex Smith, QB, 49ers - It stunned me how much Smith improved during the course of last season. He finished as the 14th best fantasy quarterback (according to ESPN) with only 17 touchdowns and an awful receiving corps. He's a cheap pick with more upside than most realize.

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons - As Atlanta transforms itself into more of a passing offense, Rodgers is the all-purpose running back that they want in the backfield.

Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins - Most fantasy owners won't touch Thomas after his rookie hype burned them last year. But if you believe that hamstring problems hampered him and that Reggie Bush will return to his injury-plagued ways, then Thomas is a great gamble to take in the late rounds.

Randall Cobb, WR, Packers - Joyner notes that Cobb's 12.0 yards per target last season put him near the top of the league. Reports from training camp say that the Packers are finding it hard to keep him off the field.

Seahawks Defense - Seattle's defense is young and under-the-radar, and no team's opponents gave up more sacks last season. Not to mention that they play Kevin Kolb (or better yet, John Skelton) in Week One.

KILL

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks - Chasing touchdowns in fantasy football is a fool's game, and that's what you're doing if you draft Lynch with your second round pick.

Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos - Everyone who is getting excited about Manning's return may forget that he was always a much better real-life quarterback than a fantasy one. Even in his 2009 MVP season, he still finished as the fifth best fantasy QB in most leagues.

No amount of Skittles could make me draft Marshawn Lynch.

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers - Almost all of Newton's 14 rushing touchdowns were designed runs from inside the 5-yard line, hinting that the Carolina coaches wanted to get him in the end zone to boost their rookie's confidence. They'd be foolish to put him in harm's way that many times again. I don't think Newton's passing skills are good enough yet to offset the loss of those rushing stats.

Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson - These three players are the clear top-tier of fantasy wide receivers. But the position is so deep that I'd rather grab a Jordy Nelson or Steve Smith two rounds later.

Any Running Back Coached by Bill Belichick or Mike Shanahan - I learned my lesson last year. And speaking of New England's coach...

Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots - I still think Gronkowski will finish as a Top 5 fantasy tight end. But Belichick's offensive strategy fluctuates too much for me to think that Gronk will come anywhere close to matching last year's record season.

Roddy White - No wide receiver has been as consistent over the past five years as White, but no receiver has had as many passes thrown his way either. White led the league in targets each of the last two years, but that won't be the case this season as Julio Jones emerges.

Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos - McGahee was fading into retirement when Tebow's option offense revived his career. Click here and then tell me if you want to own the top running back in Peyton Manning's passing attack.

 

Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals - Floyd is going in the later rounds, but even that is too high for a receiver who will probably start the season behind Early Doucet and Andre Roberts on the depth chart.

Devin Hester, WR, Bears - Just in case you blacked out the last half-decade and fell for Chicago's old "we're designing plays for Devin" routine.

Unfortunately I won't be able to Marry or Boff any of these players once my leaguemates read this post. You can follow my other NFL thoughts at @BostonGiant.

Images found here, here, and here.