Pete's Picks: NFL Week 6

I used to be good at this. I swear.

I started gambling on football at a young age. One evening when I was in the fifth grade, my father returned from work with a copy of the New York Post's NFL betting lines. He'd joined a weekly pick 'em pool at his office and had to make his selections for that Sunday's games. I was new to the world of football, but I was also a nerd who loved tests, and the thought of being graded each week on my sports knowledge was exciting.

Initially I offered a suggestion here and there about who my father should pick, but it wasn't long before I was running the whole operation. Each week my dad gave me the odds sheet, I filled it out, he brought back the master spreadsheet with everyone's picks, and I spent all day Sunday tracking how I did  against the pool. My father fronted the entrance fee, and I collected a cut of any winnings. Pretty sweet deal.

And I was good at it. Really good. At least once or twice a season, I'd grab the weekly payout with a 13-3 or 12-4 record. And I nearly always was in the hunt for the overall leader position at the end of the season. My father always had stories of coworkers who were baffled by how they kept losing to a kid.

And now, look at me. My picks were a mediocre 122-124-10 last season, which is about just as good as a coin flip. I could climb back to .500 this season with a solid 11-3 week, except that I can't remember the last time I sniffed double-digit wins. And I still have yet to correctly pick a Bears game this season. I know so much more about football than I ever have, and yet I long for the success of my nine-year old self.

Perhaps I'm out-thinking myself. Perhaps, in my quest to give logical reason for each of my picks, I'm talking myself into teams that I don't believe in. Perhaps I need to stop worrying about Cover-2 schemes and zone-read run games and just pick the Broncos because I think the Chargers are overrated. This week, I'll try to channel my grade-school self and go with my gut. Let's see if it works.

Last Week: 7-7

Regular Season: 34-41-2 

Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons

The next two weeks, the Falcons have the Raiders and a bye while the Texans host the Packers and Ravens. My money is on Atlanta being the last remaining undefeated team this season.

The Pick: Falcons (-8.5)

Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens

Extra preparation time is advantageous to some teams, but perhaps not Dallas. Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 1-3 in games after 10+ days of rest.

The Pick: Ravens (-3.5)

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Hello, upset special. Trent Richardson really impressed me against the Giants last week. He may be the toughest RB in the league to tackle. I hope the Browns can pull off the home upset, at least for this guy's sake:

The Pick: Browns (+2.5)

St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins

Don't dismiss this game. Take away a Matthew Stafford last-second TD and two overtime losses, and both these teams would be 4-1. I'll take the points and the slightly more-experienced QB.
 
The Pick: Rams (+3.5)

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles

This week, the media got a hold of an anonymous GM who blasted the entire Lions organization, calling them more hype than substance. Looking past his obvious bitterness, he has a point. Dig into their roster, and the Lions are stunningly flawed. As good as Stafford and Calvin Johnson are, they can't carry a team with no running game, no pass rush, and a sub-par secondary.

The Pick: Eagles (-3.5)

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets

I wrote it last week and I'll write it again this week: the Jets have a good coaching staff that has always kept them competitive. This will be close, but there's no way that New York just rolls over this early in the season.

The Pick: Colts (+3.5)

Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kudos to Eric Winston for calling out the Chiefs fans who cheered for Matt Cassel's injury. It's certainly not the first or last time that's happened, but it's good to draw some attention to it. My take? Freedom of speech gives you the right to boo. And it gives the rest of us the right to call you an ass.

The Pick: Bucs (-4.5)

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals

The Patriots and Eagles must have watched Kevin Kolb get battered to a pulp last Thursday against the Rams and said, "How the heck did we lose to the Cardinals?" The last two weeks aside, take a look at the second-half of the Bills schedule. This team is far from out of it.

The Pick: Bills (+5)

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

My Pro Football Focus preview of this game will be up shortly. Let's just call it the irresistible force (New England's No. 1 scoring offense) vs the immovable object (Seattle's No. 1 scoring defense). This will be close, but I think the Patriots extreme no-huddle attack will eventually wear down the Seahawks' physical defense.

The Pick: Patriots (-3.5)

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins

I'm still skeptical about the Vikings, but a 2-3 team with a recently-concussed QB should not be favored in this game.

The Pick: Vikings (+2.5)

I'm counting on less of this on Sunday.

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

Earlier this week, I tweeted that, in nine drives prior to the Kyle Williams OT fumble in the NFC Championship game, the Giants and 49ers combined for 93 yds, a 46% completion rate, 4 sacks, and 3 first downs. The two weak links in that game, the Giants' o-line and the 49ers' receiving corps, are much better this season. I expect a higher-scoring game, but a close one nonetheless.

The Pick: Giants (+7)

Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans

After playing in primetime approximately twice in the last decade, the Texans are now in the national spotlight for back-to-back weeks. Houston is legit, but the thought of the Packers being 2-4 is just too crazy for me to accept.

The Pick: Packers (+3.5)

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers

Forget rumors of him wanting to avoid playing Eli in the playoffs; this is the real reason that Peyton Manning chose to go to the AFC West. His team has been abused by a tough schedule for five weeks, and yet he'll have the division lead if he beats the Chargers on Monday Night.

The Pick: Broncos (+1.5)

Happy football, everyone.

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.

Odds found here.

Image found here  and here.