Friday, September 28, 2012

My NFL Week 4 Picks

Can't wait to watch the Twitter gangsters and the ballerinas duke it out on Sunday Night Football.

I'm in Martha's Vineyard for a wedding right now, so this week's picks will be done in rapid-fire mode.

Last Week: 6-10
Regular Season: 21-26-1 

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Belichick hasn't lost three straight since 2002.

The Pick: Patriots (-4)

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Still not a believer in Minnesota's secondary.

The Pick: Lions (-4)

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan's 114.0 passer rating leads the league.

The Pick: Falcons (-7)

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets

No Revis? Big problem.

The Pick: 49ers (-3.5)

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Chargers run defense (67.3 ypg) stops Chiefs RBs (191.7 rush ypg).

The Pick: Chargers (-1.5)

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Locker keeps it close, but gets no help from running game against tough Houston D.

The Pick: Titans (+12)

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams

Seattle's defense (8 sacks, 12 point allowed vs. Packers) is legit.

The Pick: Seahawks (-2.5)

Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals d-linemen Calais Campbell and Darnell Docket have combined for 24 QB pressures, according to Pro Football Focus.

The Pick: Cardinals (-5)

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

The Broncos don't fall for the trap game in their brutal early schedule.

The Pick: Broncos (-6.5)

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars

Bengals D isn't as good as last year, but should still handle Jags' 30th-ranked offense.

The Pick: Bengals (-2.5)

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers

This will be a close back and forth. Packers have upgraded their shameful 2011 defense, but Saints have not.

The Pick: Saints (+7.5)

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Redskins offense has been hurting the last couple of weeks without Pierre Garcon.
Bucs will be ready for RG3's zone-read offense after dominating Cam Newton in Week 1.

The Pick: Buccaneers (-2.5)

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

There's no love lost between these teams. Check out my preview for Pro Football Focus here. I can't trust the Eagles until they protect the football.

The Pick: Giants (+2)

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys

DeMarcus Ware vs. J'Marcus Webb. Watch out, Jay Cutler.

The Pick: Cowboys (-3.5)

Happy football, everyone.

Follow me at @PFF_Pete.
Odds found here.

Image found here.

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