Super Bowl XLV: Top 12 Prop Bets

My mom called me yesterday to ask how many boxes I wanted in my uncle's Super Bowl squares pool.  Now if I said my mother took more than a passing interest in football, then I'd be lying.  She calls me on Sundays to ask how my team is doing and occasionally claims to be a Cowboys fan because they were good in the '70s, but otherwise I don't think she cares about the sport.  And yet even she throws down $50 on the Super Bowl every year.

My point is, nothing makes gambling more acceptable than the big game.  Vegas reported more than $82 million was legally wagered on last year's Super Bowl, and some estimate than 100 times that was gambled illegally.  And there is no better friend to a compulsive gambler than prop bets.  Anyone can bet the Steelers to win.  But only a truly stupid individual can bet Ben Roethlisberger to have more passing yards in the first quarter than Sam Shields has kickoff return yards in the second half.  So with that in mind, I give you my favorite dozen prop bets of Super Bowl XLV.*

1) Coin Toss - The Christopher Columbus of Super Bowl prop bets.  I remember my uncle telling me at the start of Super Bowl XXX that there were actual people who gambled on the coin toss, and I thought "wow, those people must have problems."  14 years later, the coin landed on heads and my friend T-Bone shouted "that's $150 in the bank!"

My bet: Tails never fails.  50% of the time, it works every time.


2) How long will Christina Aguilera hold the note “Brave” at the end of the National Anthem? (Over/under six seconds)


My bet: Under.  I've seen the Lady Marmalade video, but everyone knows that you hold the note on "land of the free."

3) How many times will FOX mention “Brett Favre” on TV during the Game? (Over/under 2.5) - If ESPN was covering the game, the over/under would be 17.5 and an obnoxious Favre-celebration graphic.

My bet: Over.  I still think Joe Buck and Troy Aikman will find at least three opportunities to mention Lord Favre.

4) Will a punt hit the scoreboard during the game? - I like this one only because it brings back memories of the biggest non-story of last season.  For the record, I was livid that they wouldn't pull up the Dallas scoreboard.  But i also hate Jerry Jones, so take that for what it's worth.

My bet: No.  The odds are so remote that they're only allowing you to bet "yes" on this one.

5) Will any player do the Lambeau Leap after a TD? Believe it or not, the seemingly traditional Lambeau Leap was only invented in 1993.  Even the Ickey Shuffle is older than that.

My bet: No.  The Dallas endzone wall looks to be a foot taller than the one in Green Bay, plus it's a chain-link fence that won't make for a comfortable landing.

6) Will either team score three unanswered times in the game? Sneaky statistic: as rare of a feat as it sounds, 31 out of the 44 Super Bowls have seen one team score three unanswered times.

My bet: Yes.  History aside, both these defenses rely on blitzing and big plays.  I expect to see a few turnovers that could have one team rack up a bunch of points quickly.

7) Will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half?  I wish I could see the person who made this bet during the Cardinals-Steelers Super Bowl two years ago, when James Harrison robbed the Cardinals of sure points and then barely crossed the goal line to give the Steelers their own score.

My bet: Yes.  Quarterbacks these days have the 2-minute drill down to a science.  And this game has two of the best quarterbacks in the league.

8) Which will be the highest scoring quarter? Fun fact: in 44 Super Bowls, the second quarter has never been scoreless.

My bet: The fourth quarter.  Both teams will have definitely settled down by then, the defenses won't be blitzing as hard, and a close game will bring more urgency to the offenses.  Plus, they scored 35 points in the final quarter of their meeting last season.

9) What will be the largest points lead of the game?  (Over/under 13.5) - For the contrarians out there, bet the over and watch your friends hate you as you root for a blowout.

My bet: Under.  I expect a close game.

10) Will there be a special teams or defensive touchdown scored in the game?  Pittsburgh and Green Bay were both in the top five of defenses in takeaways.  The Packers had six defensive touchdowns while the Steelers had four on defense and one on special teams.  And although Aaron Rodgers stopped Brian Urlacher from an interception return touchdown last week, you might remember that the Packers' season ended on an overtime interception by the Cardinals last year.

My bet: Yes.  Both teams have relentless blitzes and opportunistic cornerbacks.  A defender will find the end zone.

11) Who will be named MVP of the game? - Rodgers has the best odds, followed by Roethlisberger.  It's a passing league, so it's no surprise that the past seven MVPs have been a quarterback or receiver.


My bet: The smart move is to bet whichever quarterback you think will win.  I'm going with Rodgers, since Roethlisberger isn't guaranteed the MVP even with a Steeler victory.

12) Which total will be greater: Rajon Rondo total points + assists vs. Orlando Magic or Green Bay Packers total points? - No Super Bowl Sunday is complete without an out-of-the-blue cross-sport bet.

My bet: Go with the Pack.  Orlando's been shaky lately, but Green Bay will put up some points.

So what to do with all these bets?  Paste this list into a document (minus my predictions), print out 20 copies, and then start a pool at your local Super Bowl party.  $10 gets you a sheet to make all 12 bets.  Whoever gets the most correct wins the pot.  For a tiebreaker, have everyone choose the color of the Gatorade that gets dumped on the winning coach.  I did this two years ago and it went pretty well.  Happy betting!

*All lines are from Bodog.com.

Images found here.