The Craziest Play You've Never Seen: Preseason Judgments

Apparently, the Giants-Jets preseason game was called the
Met Life Bowl.  Just like college bowl games, the players
were paid handsomely and the outcome was meaningless.
.

In the NFL's 91 seasons, there have been a handful of games in which the final play sees a team snatch victory from the jaws of certain defeat.  Those moments inevitably go down in football history, retold again and again for future generations.  They are given legendary nicknames.  The Immaculate Reception.  The Music City Miracle.

However, the craziest play I've seen never shows up in an NFL Films highlight reel.  You can't find any iconic images of it.  In fact, old newspaper archives may hold the only evidence that it ever happened.

The game occurred 11 years ago.  The Giants were visiting the Jaguars, and had a four point lead with seven seconds remaining in the fourth quarter.  Jacksonville had the ball in the red zone, with one last chance to win the game.  The quarterback took the snap, and, as the final seconds ticked down, he fired it into the endzone.  The pass was snatched out of the air by a Giants cornerback.  Interception.  Only needing to fall down, the player could have ended the game right there.

Instead, the excited defender attempted to return the ball, running across the end zone until he was blindsided...by his own teammate.  The tackler, a Giants linebacker, intended to simply bring him down to secure the win.  Instead, he forced a fumble, which an opportunistic Jaguars lineman jumped on for a touchdown. The clock hit zero, and the Jaguars had an improbable 16-13 victory on one of the craziest plays in NFL history.  I'd seen mental mistakes before.  I'd seen bloopers.  I'd seen last-second comebacks.  But I'd never seen all of them wrapped up in one play to cost my team a victory.

Luckily, it didn't matter.  The reason you can't find video of the play is because it happened in a preseason game.  Later that night, a sports talk radio host commented that the wacky play foretold regular season doom for the Giants.  They did in fact finish with an 0-4 record that preseason.  And five months later, they were in the Super Bowl.

Evidence shows that preseason records give little indication of how a team will perform that year.  In 2008, the Lions were the only team to finish 4-0 in their exhibition games.  They then became the only team in NFL history to go 0-16 in the regular season.  The Colts have lost nine straight August games (and counting), and yet have nine straight seasons with at least 10 wins.  Last year, the 12 playoff teams were a combined 20-28 in the preseason.

While we know that games decided by backups and undrafted rookies don't forecast the regular season, it's still tempting to judge specific players based on their August performances.  For example, should we worry that James Jones and Deion Branch, both expected to be key receivers on Super Bowl contenders, have combined for one reception this month?  Or that Eli Manning, elite or not, hasn't thrown a single touchdown pass?

No.  Even on an individual player level, history would indicate that stats in August are a shaky way to predict production come September.  Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers combined for 11 touchdowns and one interception in the 2010 preseason, hinting at the stellar performances they would have in the fall.  However, no part of Michael Vick's 38.2 passer rating and zero pass touchdowns indicated that his incredible comeback was on the way.  Arian Foster's 6.0 yards per carry had him rising up fantasy football draft boards.  But those pinning their hopes to Jahvid Best and CJ Spiller, and their respective 8.6 and 4.7 yards per attempt, were sorely disappointed.

The fact is, fans take preseason results much more seriously than the teams do.  Even the best coaches do minimal game planning in August, and all of them are more concerned with evaluating their talent than they are with winning the game.  Above all, they're hoping to avoid injuries, the only summer outcome that is certain to follow a team into September.

So if you're a 49ers fan, don't lose any sleep over how horrendous your offense has looked so far.  And if you're from Detroit, I'd wait before I start bragging that the Lions are back.  You'll have plenty of time later to buy a jersey or hit the panic button.  That’s what Week Three is for.

Image found here.