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| Tim Hightower: the next Arian Foster? |
Nevertheless, I do have a couple of players that I'm high and low on for this season. Since many of you have asked, I've decided to post my fantasy predictions here. Enjoy.
HIGH
Tim Hightower, RB, Redskins - Since trading for Hightower, Mike Shanahan has taken every step to show that the former Cardinal is Washington's new number one running back. At 6.8 yards per carry in the preseason, Hightower seems to be the perfect fit for the Redskins' one-cut running game, just as Arian Foster was the ideal back for the Texans zone blocking scheme last year. Words can't express how much I love Tim Hightower this year. My bold prediction: Hightower will finish as a top 15 RB this season.
Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys - People question Romo's attitude and commitment, but the guy puts up stats with the best of them. He was on pace for 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns before his injury last year, and he returns to arguably the best receiving group in the league. My bold prediction: Romo will end the season as a top 4 fantasy QB.
Brandon Marshall, WR, Dolphins - A few months ago, I wrote that Marshall needed to clean up his act before he went too far down the path of Chris Henry. I was pleased to see signs of maturity from him recently, and, off-field issues aside, he still has as much talent as any receiver out there. Even in a down year, he still had over 1,000 yards last season. My bold prediction: Marshall will regain his top 10 WR status.
Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots - I raved about Ridley after seeing him live in a preseason game, and I will own him in all of my leagues this year. He's gained 222 yards in two preseason games, and I expect him to carry his production into the regular season. He'll have to compete with Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis for touches, but he has more talent than the both of them. My bold prediction: Ridley will score more fantasy points than any other Patriots RB.
Jerome Harrison, RB, Lions - I've been a Harrison fan ever since he rushed for 561 yards in the final three games of 2009. Jahvid Best's shaky health is the only thing standing between Harrison and the number one running back role in a promising Detroit offense. My bold prediction: Harrison will rush for more than 600 yards this year.
LOW
Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals - With the aformentioned Hightower traded and rookie Ryan Williams out for the year, Wells has little competition for carries in Arizona. It's a great situation for him, but I don't think he has the durability to capitalize on it. Let someone else in your league reach for Beanie and his recontructed knees. My bold prediction: Wells will run for less than 750 yards this year.
The Entire Colts Offense - As I mentioned yesterday, I still expect Peyton Manning to start Week One for the Colts. But playing through an injury, I expect him to be very un-Peyton-like for at least the first month of the season. The entire Indianapolis offense revolves around him, so I'd shy away from Joseph Addai and every Colts receiver. My bold prediction: Manning and Dallas Clark will finish outside of the top 5 at their position. Reggie Wayne will not be a top 10 WR.
Plaxico Burress, WR, Jets - I'm crafting an upcoming post about the return of Plax, one of my favorite players ever. But as much as I hate to say it, I don't expect big things from him this year. His game relies on his athletic gifts more than most players, and I just don't think he'll be able to outmuscle and outjump cornerbacks at age 34 like he did at age 30. Too many people forget that he dealt with some serious injury issues, even before he shot himself in the leg. He'll have one or two big games with over 100 yards, but he'll also have to sit out three more. My bold prediction: Buress will have less than 700 yards and 7 TDs this year.
All Kickers and Defenses - There's a lot of fantasy draft advice out there and I often change my strategy when picking players. However, there's one plan that I always stick to: never draft a defense or kicker until the last two rounds. There's little consistency at either position, and you're always better off taking a chance on a guy who could become a top 20 RB or WR. Every draft, when the 10th round comes by, I see an underprepared friend or coworker say, "well, I'd rather have Stephen Gostkowski than Derrick Mason," and there goes a wasted pick.
If you're getting into the later rounds and are tempted to take a kicker just because you ran out of sleepers on your list, please don't. Just take one of these guys instead: Stevan Ridley (see above); Jerome Harrison (ditto); Jacoby Ford (Oakland's promising 2nd year WR); Reggie Bush (lots of praise coming out of Miami); Roy Helu (if Hightower doesn't pan out); Jimmy Graham (the Saints' version of Jermichael Finley); Darren Sproles (the Saints' version of a healthy Reggie Bush); DeMarco Murray (could get opportunities in Dallas if Felix Jones gets hurt again); traitor Steve Smith (great value if he's actually healthy by Week One); and Ben Tate (10.5 yard per carry in his first preseason game).
Here's hoping that these suggestions help you in your league. And if you follow my advice and end up in last place, well then take comfort in the knowledge that I'll be down there with you. Misery loves company, right?
Image found here.
Couple of Comments:
ReplyDelete(1) Stevan Ridley (for that matter any Patriot running back) - I'm not saying Ridley won't put up numbers. I'm not saying he won't score more points than any other Patriots rb. I'm just saying, stay the hell away from Patriots RBs. For that matter, stay away from any Patriot not named Tom Brady. Part of Belichick's magic is not relying on any one part of his offense. Unfortunately reliability and predictability is the name of the game in head-to-head fantasy football leagues. You just can't roll the dice on a starting rb ANY week. For example, you're much more able to predict Willis McGahee getting you at least a TD any given week than a patriot's rb giving you anything. Take it from a guy that drafted Laurence Maroney with my 1st round (4th in redraft)pick three years ago: STAY AWAY.
(2) Michael Vick - One note on the Michael Vick fantasy value debate. Regardless of whether you think he's worth a 1st round pick, or think he's a bust. A benefit to drafting this guy is reliability and predictability. What? for a guy that has injury issues? Not for Vick, no, but Andy Reid will pass. Pass some more. run two yards on third down. Then pass. And with a QB who can run he can "run" while passing. There are few more predictable tendencies in football. Therefore, whomever the QB for the eagles is will have a crap load of fantasy value. Handcuff Vick with Vince Young (last round pick) and suddenly you have a reliable quality #1 QB for the year.
(3)Kickers - I think Pete goes too far on kickers. I'm not suggesting taking a kicker in a round earlier than your second to last round. However, there is strategy to be had in selecting a kicker. (A) Look for a high scoring team and (B) and a skilled kicker. While much of kicking is a crap shoot, the stats show a tendancy toward higher points for high scoring teams and highly-skilled kickers. Again predictability and reliability.
Mike,
ReplyDelete1) I actually agree with you. I told my roommates that I think Ridley will be the best Pats RB this year, but that he'll still finish outside of the Top 20 Fantasy RBs. Still, when you can get him in the 13th round of most drafts, I think he's a steal.
2) Reid does love passing. It's his biggest strength and his biggest weakness. I don't think Vick is a bad pick in the first round, UNLESS your league gives six points for passing touchdowns. In four point pass TD leagues last year, Vick was heads above the rest. But in six point leagues, Brady, Peyton and Rodgers all finished ahead of him. This is very important to note.
3) There is a strategy to picking a kicker, to be sure. But I think that they're not as predictable as you'd believe. And with a mere 30 points separating the best kicker and the 13th best kicker, I'd rather use a mid-round pick to take a flier on a RB or WR that could possibly break out.
As always, thanks for reading.