Kyle Orton beats Tim Tebow in every passing category except
youth and potential. So why should John Fox bench him?
youth and potential. So why should John Fox bench him?
The Broncos released their first depth chart of the season on Tuesday, and to the surprise of no one, Tim Tebow is listed as the backup quarterback behind Kyle Orton. 10 days ago, I remarked that Denver was giving Orton snaps with the first-team just to raise his trade value. However, now it looks like he will in fact start over Tebow against the Raiders on Monday night, September 12th. It's good news if you want the Broncos to win this year. Orton has proven in his career to be an adequate starter, and perhaps he can lead Denver to a good season in a weak division. But if you're rooting for a Broncos championship, you should be rooting for Tim Tebow.
Let's be clear on one thing: I do not think Tebow can succeed as a quarterback at the NFL level. Despite his well-publicized effort to improve his poor throwing-mechanics in practice, he still regresses to his bad habits in game situations. And his penchant for running, which allowed him to bowl over and blow past college linebackers, leaves him open to injury against stronger and faster NFL defenders. I didn't believe in Tebow before he was drafted, and little has happened in the past year to change my opinion.
Let's be clear on one thing: I do not think Tebow can succeed as a quarterback at the NFL level. Despite his well-publicized effort to improve his poor throwing-mechanics in practice, he still regresses to his bad habits in game situations. And his penchant for running, which allowed him to bowl over and blow past college linebackers, leaves him open to injury against stronger and faster NFL defenders. I didn't believe in Tebow before he was drafted, and little has happened in the past year to change my opinion.
Tebow has worked to improve his passing motion...
...but old habits die hard.
And yet, despite the fact that Orton is the better quarterback right now, there is no question in my mind that Tebow has to start.
Herm Edwards once famously said, "you play to win the game." But that's wrong. As my friend Omer likes to say, "you play to win the championship." And in the NFL, you can't do that without a franchise quarterback. Kyle Orton is a solid player, but he's not a franchise quarterback. He's always just good enough to help your team, but never quite good enough to carry it. In short, he can win you the game, but he can't win you the championship.
Let's be honest. The Broncos are not winning the Super Bowl this year. On top of having the worst defense in the league last season, they are switching from a 3-4 system to a 4-3 in a shortened offseason. Perhaps they can manage an inspiring effort in a weak division to grab a surprise playoff spot. But a Wild Card round loss with a middling quarterback is no guarantee of progress. Just ask the 2008 Dolphins, who jumped from 1-15 to 11-5 in one season with Chad Pennington at the helm, and then were dismissed from the playoffs by a superior Ravens team. Without a true franchise quarterback, they've haven't been back to the playoffs, and now the words "Brett Favre" are buzzing around South Florida. For Dolphins fans, that 2008 season, so magical at the time, might as well have been 38 years ago (which is when they won their last Super Bowl).
If there's anything the Broncos could salvage from their horrific 2010, it was the glimpses of promise from Tebow in his last three games, which included a 308 yard passing performance versus Houston. I personally don't think he can be the franchise quarterback who gets them back on the road to a championship. But he's done enough to deserve a chance to prove if he can. And John Fox, who just signed a new four-year contract, has the job security to find out.
If Tebow starts, then at best he shows that he is the future in Denver, and John Elway and company can focus their 2012 on surrounding him with talent. At worst, Tebow costs Denver a few games, and they move on without him. Fox doesn't need a winning record this season. What he does need is to know if he has a franchise quarterback on his roster. If he's still unsure of that next August, then this year will have been a waste.
Good Article Pete.
ReplyDeleteHowever, as with the vast majority of football analysts you've crucified Tebow a bit prematurely. Given that his physical skills aren't quintessential franchise QB material, I think there is some hope that he'll be a good QB. And frankly, he already HAS succeeded as a NFL QB.
Last year here was Tebow's statline in 9 games played:
Passer Rating: 82.1
Accuracy: 50%
Yards: 654
TD/Int: 5/3
Rushing Yards: 227
Rushing Tds: 6
Win Loss Record: 2-2
Not the best stats in the world - but not horrible for a rookie that has started a total of 4 games on a horrible team. I think it's premature to crucify him. He isn't Jesus after all...
Thanks for reading, Mike, as always.
ReplyDeleteActually, I believe you've helped me make my point. I personally am not a Tebow fan, but he clearly showed enough last year to deserve a shot at the starting role. The Broncos, with a horrible defense in transition and a suspect running game, have a low ceiling this year. There's no point in trotting out Orton to perhaps finish 9-7 when you have a possible franchise quarterback on the roster.
Throw Tebow out there and see what he can do. However it turns out, at least you'll be able to better prepare for the future, either with him or without.