Wednesday, September 7, 2011

2011 NFL Preview: AFC North

After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here.  With the Saints-Packers opening game kickoff less than 24 hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season.  I'll go division-by-division, continuing with the AFC North.

The Ravens will have no sympathy for Pittsburgh's Super Bowl hangover.
1. Baltimore Ravens

Why They'll Be Better - The Ravens' big-time receiver acquisitions came up small in a frustrating playoff loss to the Steelers.  However, I expect Anquan Boldin to improve in his second year with Joe Flacco, and Lee Evans has more tread left on his tires than T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Derrick Mason did.

Why They'll Be Worse - Ray Lewis and Ed Reed have held down the Ravens defense for a decade, but they have to slow down sometime.  Lewis turned 36 this year, and Reed showed signs of decline last season.

My Prediction - The Ravens are like the Jets, in that they can ride a stout defense into the playoffs but will ultimately need their young quarterback to get them over the hump.  I'd rather put my money on Flacco than Sanchez.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

Why They'll Be Better - After being suspended for the first four games last season, Ben Roethlisberger will start the season under-center and drama-free.  And tackle Willie Colon is returning from a torn ACL to protect him.

Why They'll Be Worse - Aaron Rodgers picked apart the Steeler secondary in the Super Bowl.  With the spread offense proliferating throughout the league, Pittsburgh will regret not upgrading their corners.

My Prediction - For whatever reason, the Steelers have been plagued in recent years by the dreaded Super Bowl hangover.  After they won the title in 2005 and 2008, they missed the playoffs completely in each of the following seasons.  With a shaky offensive line and aging defense, I think this year will make them oh-for-three.

3. Cleveland Browns

Why They'll Be Better - Colt McCoy, despite his lack of arm strength, looks like a natural for Mike Holmgren's West Coast offense.  He showed flashes of potential in eight games last year and hasn't slowed down in the preseason.

Why They'll Be Worse - The Brown defense will struggle to adjust to Dick Jauron's new 3-4 system.  It won't help that four of the 11 starters on D are new additions to the team, including two rookies.

My Prediction - I am quickly becoming a big McCoy fan, and I think the Browns will turn their entire franchise around with the picks that they acquired in the Julio Jones trade.  But the lockout delay and turnover on defense will hinder them too much to make the playoffs this year.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

Why They'll Be Better - I tried to write something in this space, but there's honestly nothing optimistic I can say about the Bengals.

Why They'll Be Worse - A rookie offensive coordinator, rookie quarterback,  and rookie number one receiver in a lockout-shortened offseason is as bad a situation as you can have.  Carson Palmer was no stud last year, but teams will salivate over the chance to tee off on Andy Dalton.

My Prediction - I don't understand what Marvin Lewis has done to return to Cincy for a ninth consecutive season.  Fun fact: only one other NFL coach in the last 50 years (Jim Mora Sr.) was able to keep his job for nine seasons without recording a playoff win.  Right now, the Bengals are my favorite to get the first pick in the 2012 Draft.

Up next, the AFC South.

Image found here.

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