After a frustrating lockout and a historically hectic August, the 2011 season is nearly here. With the Saints-Packers opening game kickoff less than 24 hours away, it's time for some predictions for the 2011 season. I'll go division-by-division, continuing with the AFC West .
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| The Chargers will prove that last season was a fluke, but the Broncos could be the surprise of 2011. |
1. San Diego Chargers
Why They'll Be Better - With Vincent Jackson financially placated and Antonio Gates healthy, look for the Charger passing game to be at the top of the league.
Why They'll Be Worse - San Diego took a risk in letting Darren Sproles go and putting more on the shoulders of Ryan Mathews. After the Chargers traded up in the first round to grab him, the young running back hasn't shown that he can handle the extra workload.
My Prediction - It's rare that a team ranked first in the league in offense and defense misses the playoffs, but San Diego did just that last season. As much as the blocked punts and poor kick coverage hurt them last year, any improvement on special teams will have the Chargers back near the top of the conference.
2. Denver Broncos
Why They'll Be Better - John Fox was an excellent coaching hire for the Broncos, and he should have an immediate impact on Denver's horrendous defense. Although they are implementing a new defensive system, recent top draft picks Robert Ayers and Von Miller are better suited for the 4-3.
Why They'll Be Worse - Like Baltimore, Denver has two aging veterans, Brian Dawkins and Champ Bailey, leading their defense. The bottom could drop out quickly for both of them.
My Prediction - There's a lot I like about the Broncos. Knowshon Moreno will thrive in a more run-focused offense, and Brandon Lloyd will prove that his 1,448 receiving yards last year were no fluke. If Fox can bring the defense back to respectability, Denver could surprise some people. A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that Tim Tebow is the Broncos' best shot to eventually win a Super Bowl, even though Kyle Orton is the better bet to lead them on a surprise playoff run in the short-term. Now, I expect him to do just that.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
Why They'll Be Better - If you look at the stats of the Chiefs' playoff loss to the Ravens, you couldn't tell that Dwayne Bowe was even at the game. Baltimore's double-teams kept Matt Cassel from even throwing a single ball towards his top receiving target. New wideout Steve Breaston will give the Chiefs someone to go to when defenses focus too much on Bowe.
Why They'll Be Worse - The Chiefs had the easiest schedule in the league last year and won their division despite beating only one team with a winning record. This season's road won't be nearly as forgiving.
My Prediction - The Raiders aside, the Chiefs will face a stronger division with a tougher schedule. Cassel noticeably struggled against better defenses, and Kansas City won't be able to sneak up on anyone this year.
4. Oakland Raiders
Why They'll Be Better - In a breakout 2010 season, Darren McFadden finally showed the production that the Raiders thought they were getting with the fourth overall pick in the 2008 draft. I also expect last year's first round pick, linebacker Rolando McClain, to evolve into the captain and centerpiece of the defense this year.
Why They'll Be Worse - Jason Campbell has some talent, but I don't understand how he's gotten so many chances to quarterback a team. With a career 27-37 record over five seasons, you can't blame his struggles on his various offensive coordinators.
My Prediction - Once upon a time, Al Davis was able to get hidden talent at a discount by focusing on things like speed and strength. Now that every team measures athletic ability, those bargains have disappeared and left Davis to overpay and overdraft for every player he sets his eye on. His penchant to splurge on his roster ensures that the Raiders are rarely last, but always close to it.
Up next, the NFC East.
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