Middle School Gambling: My Week 3 Picks

I haven't felt this hopeless about a Giants game since Eli Manning's rookie season.

Back when I was in middle school, I went to a church-sponsored street fair in Queens, which is about as classy as it sounds.  Picture Dennis and Dee's trip to the Jersey Shore on last night's episode of It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, minus the grave-digging.

For some reason my parents gave me a fifty-dollar bill, which I suppose was meant to be spent on various under-maintained carnival rides.  But when I entered the fair, one of the first things to catch my eye was a giant roulette wheel game, run by my old little league coach (seriously).  After about thirty minutes and a couple dozen bets later, I'd lost all my cash.  That was my first lesson on the stupidity of gambling.  Lesson number 267 came last week, when I correctly picked 13 out of 16 games, but still finished even against the spread.  There's a reason the house always wins.  Either way, it's too late to stop now.

Last week: 13-3, 7-7-2 Against the Spread (ATS)

Season: 22-10, 13-14-4 ATS

49ers at Bengals - Two years ago, the 49ers were off to a promising 2-0 start until they were derailed by Brett Favre.  For San Francisco's sake, I hope last week's collapse to Dallas doesn't do the same.

Pick - 49ers

ATS - 49ers (+2.5)

Patriots at Bills - This game has already won the award for "Most Popular Topic at the 2011 Chatham Cup."  Pay close attention to Bills nose tackle Kyle Williams, arguably the most underrated player in the league, versus Patriots fill-in center, Dan Connolly.  

Pick - Patriots

ATS - Patriots (-8.5)

Texans at Saints - The Saints will test Houston's revamped defense much more than the Colts or Dolphins did.  Still, with a porous secondary and no Marques Colston, New Orleans will struggle to keep up in this barn burner. 

Pick - Texans

ATS - Texans (+4)

Giants at Eagles - It's been a long time since I've felt hopeless about a Giants game before kickoff, but a decimated/under-performing secondary trying to stop the best receiving corps in the league has me dreading Sunday.  There's nothing I've seen from Big Blue this season that makes me think their defense or offense can hang with the Eagles.  Ugh.

Pick - Eagles

ATS - Eagles(-9)

Dolphins at Browns - It seems that the Reggie Bush experiment in Miami has ended just in time to see talented rookie Daniel Thomas take advantage of Cleveland's unimpressive run defense.

Pick - Dolphins

ATS - Dolphins (+2.5)

Broncos at Titans - Don't ask me how Tennessee can lose to Jacksonville one week and dominate Baltimore another.  The Broncos were my sleeper playoff team in the preaseason, but a loss to the Titans will have me regretting that pick more than I am already.

Pick - Broncos

ATS - Broncos (+7)

Lions at Vikings - Could this be the moment when the torch is passed, and the surging Lions humble the aging Vikings?  I think so.  Minnesota's passing game doesn't have the talent to exploit Detroit's weak secondary.

Pick - Lions

ATS - Lions (-3.5)

Jaguars at Panthers - Cam Newton has galvanized his fans and quieted his critics in all of two weeks, but has nary a "W" to show for it.  I expect that to change this week.

Pick - Panthers

ATS - Panthers (-3.5)

Chiefs at Chargers - The 1997 Colts were the last team to secure the first pick in the draft after making the playoffs the previous season.  Is it too early for Matt Cassel/Andrew Luck trade rumors in Kansas City?

Pick - Chargers

ATS - Chargers (-14.5)

Jets at Raiders - Last week's loss in Buffalo notwithstanding, the Raiders have played some inspired football so far.  They're catching the Jets at the right time, as New York just lost their best player on offense, center Nick Mangold.  Undrafted free agent Colin Baxter looked awful in relief last week.

Pick - Raiders

ATS - Raiders (+3)

Ravens at Rams - The Ravens had the most impressive victory of Week 1 and the most pathetic loss of Week 2.  I think they'll settle down this week against a St. Louis squad that sorely misses slot receiver/returner Danny Amendola.  Backup Greg Salas had some costly errors against the Giants last week.

Pick - Ravens

ATS - Ravens (-4)

Falcons at Buccaneers - With Atlanta coming to town, the Buccaneers needed that comeback over the Vikings in the worst way.  Right tackle Jeremy Trueblood has regressed in the past year, and it will take more than an awesome alma mater for him to hold up against Ray Edwards.

Pick - Falcons

ATS - Falcons (+1.5)

Cardinals at Seahawks - Everyone notes that Pete Carroll wisely left USC just before the noose tightened, but I'm not so sure he's in a better place now.

Pick - Cardinals

ATS - Cardinals (-3.5) 

Packers at Bears - Last January, the Packers leveled Jay Cutler's Super Bowl dreams, along with his reputation.  For the record, I do not think you can question Cutler's toughness.  As Dennis "Cutty" Wise would say, "If a man's still standing at the end of a round, you're not allowed to call him soft."  However, you are allowed to question his leadership.

Pick - Packers

ATS - Packers (-3.5) 

Steelers at Colts - The people most hurt by Peyton Manning's injury, outside the Colts organization, are the execs at NBC and ESPN.  Indianapolis will play in five primetime games this season, and I don't think any of them will be close.

Pick - Steelers

ATS - Steelers (-10.5) 

Redskins at Cowboys - I still think Rex Grossman will be benched for John Beck at some point this year.  But if he leads the Redskins to a Monday night victory in Dallas, I might have to change my mind.

Pick - Cowboys

ATS - Cowboys (-5.5)

Odds taken from USA Today. 

Image found here.