Breaking Down the Tape: The Giants-Patriots Regular Season Matchup (Part Two)

Without Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw, the Giants were limited to tight formations and two wide receiver sets against the Patriots.

Yesterday, I reviewed what the Patriots offense and Giants defense did in their game three months ago in Foxborough.  Today, I'll analyze what happened when the Giants had the ball.

Giants Offense vs. Patriots Defense

While the Giants defense has been riddled with injuries all season, it was New York's offense that entered this game without some key pieces. The absence of Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks, center David Baas, and fullback Henry Hynoski all affected how this matchup played out.

With Bradshaw out, Brandon Jacobs was very active with a season-high 22 touches. What impressed me wasn't his 4.0 yards per carry or 7.0 yards per reception, but the way he chipped defenders to help his offensive linemen as he came out of the backfield. On one particular play in the first quarter, he hit defensive end Andre Carter so hard that he knocked him clean off his feet.

Despite Jacobs' good day, he didn't get much help from tight end/emergency fullback Bear Pascoe. Pascoe had a rough day in the running game, often letting linebackers spin off his blocks.  Center Kevin Boothe, on the other hand, was a solid blocker filling in for Baas.  According to Pro Football Focus, Jacobs averaged 5.3 yards per carry on runs between Boothe and left guard David Diehl. However, Boothe's two drive-killing bad snaps overshadowed all the good he did in the run game.

The Giants' receivers performed well without Nicks, as Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz combined for nine catches, 124 yards and a touchdown (not including 55 yards on two pass interference penalties). But looking back at the tape shows that the Giants' offensive creativity was severely limited without Nicks.  Most of the Giants' plays came out of 12 personnel (one running back and two tight ends) with just two receivers on the field. The Patriots countered with Cover-2 man, which means they had man-to-man coverage on Cruz and Manningham with two safeties deep to help (see photo above). Both receivers struggled to get open against this extra attention, and most of their yards came on deep out patterns that demanded perfectly thrown passes by Eli Manning.

Deep outs by Victor Cruz were the Giants antidote to the Patriots' Cover-2 man defense.

New England was able to devote so much attention to the Giants receivers because none of the other Giant pass catchers posed a threat to the Patriots. The Patriots easily covered tight ends Pascoe and Jake Ballard with their linebackers, and third receiver Ramses Barden had only two catches for 24 yards against the Patriots' third corner.  Only on the game-winning drive was Ballard finally able to beat his man and give Manning some help.

New York's defensive line gets more publicity, but it was the Patriots who had the better pass rush in this game. The Giants had two sacks, including a huge fumble deep in New England's territory, but otherwise they only pressured Tom Brady nine times. The Patriots didn't record a sack, but they recorded seven hits and 15 pressures on Manning. What's more troubling for the Giants' offensive line is that much of the pressure came just from the Patriots' front four.  The few times New England did blitz, they wreaked havoc in the backfield.  Manning finally beat the blitz for two late touchdowns, but the Giants won't win Sunday unless they do a better job protecting their passer.

Much of the pressure on Manning came from defensive end Andre Carter. The Pro Bowler was the best Patriots defender on the field that day, with three hits and five pressures on Manning. Unfortunately Carter was lost to injury late in the season, as was Giants left tackle Will Beatty, the man he exploited.

What To Expect in Super Bowl XLVI:

In the three months since that Week Nine game, the Giants offense has healed and Bill Belichick has revamped the Patriots defense.  Therefore, both teams will do some drastically different things on Sunday that they didn't do in their first matchup. 

With Bradshaw and Nicks, the Giants will be able to open up their passing game. Bradshaw is quicker and a better pass catcher than Jacobs, so New York will be able to use more shotgun formations with draws and screens to counteract the Patriots pass rush. And with three legitimate receiving threats, the Giants can stretch the field both horizontally with spread formations and vertically with deep combination routes.

To counter the Giants' potent passing game, I believe the Patriots defense will blitz more often this time around. Without Carter, New England's defensive line will have a tougher time getting pressure on Manning without help. And with their safeties unable to spy on all three Giant receivers, New England knows that it can't give Manning time to settle in the pocket. Luckily, Belichick's recent shift back to a 3-4 defense (three linemen, four linebackers) gives the Patriots more versatility to blitz their linebackers than the traditional 4-3 they used in November. And the Patriots' recent shift from a zone defense to a man scheme is more conducive to bringing extra rushers.

How the Giants handle the Patriot blitzes will go a long way towards deciding who wins this game. The biggest difference between the 2007 Giants and 2011 Giants is that the offensive line, a strength four years ago, is the weakest part of New York's team now. As exciting as it was to see Manning complete a pass and call timeout while picking clumps of dirt from his helmet against the 49ers, that is not a recipe for success in the NFL. If the Giant offensive linemen don't improve on their performance in the NFC Championship, then that game's trophy will be the last they hoist this season.

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There's a lot more to cover leading up to this game. Tomorrow, I'll tackle what a Super Bowl win could mean for Bill Belichick, Tom Coughlin, Tom Brady and Eli Manning.

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Image found here.

Photos courtesy of NFL Game Rewind.