One Year of Eternal Sunshine, and My Conference Championship Picks

This is only the second time in NFL history that two quarterbacks drafted first overall will face off in the playoffs.

Dear Readers,

Exactly one year ago yesterday, a video of Patrick Chung's disastrous fake punt attempt in the Patriots' playoff loss to the Jets reminded me of a play that I saw in a 1990 Giants highlight film.  For some reason, I thought this connection was something I needed to broadcast to an audience bigger than my fantasy football league's email chain.  Thus, Eternal Sunshine For The Football Mind was born.  (I explain the impetus for the name here.)

After 140 posts and thousands of tweets (with at least 12 of them worth reading), I feel like I've gotten a much better sense for my writing style and the topics that you find most interesting.  However, I still have a long way to go, and I can't get there without you.  With that in mind, please give me your suggestions for what you want to see from me in the next year.  What do you like about the blog?  What is it missing?  What football topic would you like me to write about?  This site is only as good as those who read it, so I am open to all ideas.  You can submit your thoughts via email, Twitter, or the comments section below.

Thanks for reading, whether you're a new visitor or regular follower.  Year one has been great.  On to year two.

Best,

Pete

Last week: 3-1; 4-0 Against The Spread (ATS)

Playoffs: 7-1; 7-1 ATS

Ravens at Patriots

When trying to pick this game, one number keeps running through my head: 34.  That's the number of yards Joe Flacco passed for in the Ravens' 2009 playoff win at Foxboro.  Flacco also had an interception in that game to complete a total passer rating of 10.0.  Even after a respectable performance last week, Flacco has six touchdowns and seven interceptions in eight career playoff games.  He has regressed in every meaningful passing statistic this season.  If the Patriots put up their usual 30+ points, I don't see how Flacco can keep up with them.

If Baltimore is going to pull an upset, its defense will have to force Tom Brady to make mistakes.  The lasting image from that 2009 game is Ray Rice's 80 yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage, but what ultimately doomed the Patriots were Brady's three turnovers in the first quarter.  Throw in his awful 3.67 yards per attempt, and that game is by far Brady's worst playoff outing ever.  I don't expect lightning to strike twice.

Finally, I believe that we'll see another solid effort from the Patriots defense.  Halfway through the season, the Patriots were historically sieve-like.  We labeled them as awful and assumed they'd never get better.  But in recent weeks, Bill Belichick has been tinkering with his defense in radical ways to figure out where his players fit best.  He's taught wide receiver Julian Edelman to play nickelback.  He slid struggling cornerback Devin McCourty to safety.  He's grabbing players off the waiver wire and throwing them into the starting lineup.  The Patriots haven't allowed a 300 yard passing game in five weeks, which isn't a notable accomplishment unless you saw how they played earlier in the season.  Belichick finds his players' strengths and adapts his scheme to fit them, not the other way around.  That's why, after Sunday, he'll start preparing to coach in his seventh Super Bowl.

Pick - Patriots

ATS - Patriots (-7)

Giants at 49ers

I was very confident about the Giants game last week because I thought that, in the six weeks since they last faced the Packers, New York had improved while Green Bay had not. This matchup is different, in that both the Giants and 49ers have grown by leaps and bounds since they met ten weeks ago.  

I've spoken highly of the 49ers all season, and not just because I lost a bet to my roommate.  Their defense is star-studded and Alex Smith is capable of winning a Super Bowl.  However, even I did not expect Smith to improve this much this season.  When I watched him play the Giants in Week 10, he was effective, but unspectacular.  All of his throws were over the middle or to the flat, designed to make things easy for him and keep the ball out of harm's way.

Flash forward to last week, with 3:14 left in a game that the 49ers suddenly found themselves trailing in.  Vernon Davis beat Saints safety Malcolm Jenkins to the outside on a go route.  He was open, but barely so, with Jenkins on his heels and little room between him and the sideline.  No matter, as Smith, off his back foot with a pass rusher in his face, floated a perfect ball over the safety to hit Davis in stride.  With the 37 yard gain, San Francisco was back in the game.  Smith's ability to make that throw gives the 49ers an added dimension that they did not have the first time they played New York.

Of course, the Giants have made some improvements of their own.  New York’s wide receivers and defensive line are getting all the publicity, but not many realize how much of the Giants’ secondary has contributed to their hot streak.  I looked at the tape of New York’s 17 sacks in the last four games, and no less than 10 of them were coverage sacks.  Before Week 16, if the Giants defensive line didn’t reach the quarterback in the first three seconds after the snap, then even Rex Grossman and Kevin Kolb could find a hole in New York’s secondary.   But last week, even when Aaron Rodgers bought time with his legs, he rarely found an open receiver to throw to.  Having that tight coverage, particularly over the middle against San Francisco's dangerous two tight end sets, will be crucial for New York to win this game.

On the other side of the ball, look for the Giants to target San Francisco's cornerbacks with the sideline throws that Eli Manning excels at.  San Francisco's front seven is so good that New York can't expect to find much room over the middle, so it's imperative for Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham to beat their man on the outside.  If Manning has to hold the ball, then his offensive line will crumble against the furious 49er interior rush, led by Justin Smith.

I've gone back and forth on this game all week.  I'm picking the Giants because I put my trust in Manning at the end of a close game, but I'll be just as scared if Smith has the chance to mount his own two-minute drill.  I've believed in the Giants since their blowout loss to the Saints on Thanksgiving Weekend, so now is no time for me to stop.

Pick - Giants

ATS - Giants (+2.5)

Want to talk football?  Follow me on Twitter at @BostonGiant.

Have a suggestion for an article?  Email me at eternalsunshinepete@gmail.com.

Odds courtesy of USA Today.

Image found here.