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| Spending nine hours in negative-24 weather is worth it after a victory. |
Four years ago, a cab driver woke me up from a bench outside a Palm Beach hotel. It was 5:00am on a Sunday morning, and I had just drifted off to sleep after partying all night for a friend's wedding. When I threw my bags into the taxi, the thermometer read 85 degrees. It read two degrees when my friends Omer, Cheryl, and Donnie picked me up from O'Hare airport five hours later. As we drove three hours to Lambeau Field, we knew this would be the coldest day of our lives.
Depending on your faith in weather history, the 2008 NFC Championship between the Giants and Packers was the third coldest NFL game ever, behind the famed Ice Bowl of 1967 and Freezer Bowl of 1982. With an air temperature of negative-four degrees that dropped to minus-24 with the wind chill, it was physically dangerous to be outside. To survive the six hours of tailgating and the game, I layered myself with:
- two winter hats
- a scarf
- two thermal long-sleeve shirts
- a sweatshirt
- a ski jacket
- two pairs of gloves with a pair of hand warmers
- thermal pants
- ski pants
- three pairs of socks with two pairs of foot warmers
- hiking boots
- my lucky Michael Strahan jersey
After five minutes in the cold, Donnie trekked to a nearby store to buy us some more hand and foot warmers. If he hadn't, I would have had frostbite before kickoff. Our layers made grilling clumsy, so we drank a lot more than we ate. And we had to drink quickly, because any beer exposed to the elements froze within five minutes. It was the first time in my life that I had to keep my alcohol warm.
As we walked into the stadium, I decided that if I ever had to give up my allegiance to the Giants, I would become a Packer fan. Expecting to hear jeers from the home crowd, we instead were greeted by phrases like "Thank you for beating the Cowboys so we can have another game in Green Bay!" and "We hope you enjoy our stadium!"
The game itself tested our patience and our stamina. A 6-0 Giant lead was abruptly erased with an 90 yard Brett Favre touchdown to Donald Driver. Ahmad Bradshaw's 48 yard touchdown run with two minutes left was called back for holding. When Lawrence Tynes missed a 36 yard field goal at the end of regulation, a single tear fell down Cheryl's face...and froze on her cheek.
When Tynes confidently ran back onto the field to hit a 47 yard game-winner in overtime, we rejoiced. The beautiful thing about Lambeau Field is that the stands are connected from top to bottom, so we were able to run down to the lower level to celebrate our Super Bowl berth with the few hundred other Giant fans who made the trek. We bought cheeseheads on our way out of the stadium from an unsurprisingly polite shop attendant, and started the long drive home to New York. Somewhere in the middle of Indiana, I started to feel my toes again.
Last week - 4-0, 3-1 Against The Spread (ATS)
Saints at 49ers - The Saints' road struggles have been well-documented this season. They've scored 41 points and allowed 19 in the Superdome this season, but on the road those marks fall to 27 and 24. The New Orleans passing game does not slow down on grass, as the Saints actually have had more yards through the air on the road than at home. And the Saints defense actually surrendered more yards per game at the Superdome (383) than away from it (357) this season.
The big discrepancy for the Saints between their home and road games lies in two stats: rushing yards and turnover margin. Many think of the Saints as a passing offense, but they were also a top five rushing team this season. At home, the Saints averaged 165 rushing yards in the regular season, but that number dropped to 100 away from New Orleans. In their three road losses, the Saints were outrushed by their opponents 403 to 207. What also killed the Saints in those defeats were turnovers. At home, New Orleans' turnover margin is plus-four. On the road, it plummets to minus-12.
If the Saints need to run the ball and avoid turnovers in this game, then the 49ers are the last team they want to face. San Francisco led the league in turnover margin this year, thanks to the great decision making of Alex Smith. At home, the 49ers have 23 takeaways and four giveaways. And for a Saints offense that needs the run more than most fans realize, it's bad news that the 49ers lead the league in run defense. San Francisco's already stellar average of 77 rushing yards surrendered per game drops to a paltry 69 at home. Drew Brees will get his yards, but the Lions dropped a few interceptions last week that the opportunistic 49er defense will will not. By stifling the running game and keeping the ball out of harm's way, San Francisco is the perfect opponent to make sure the Saints road woes continue into the offseason.
Pick - 49ers
ATS - 49ers (-3.5)
Broncos at Patriots - I picked Denver to win last week because the hobbled Steelers were exactly the type of low-scoring team that the Broncos can keep up with long enough for Tim Tebow to work his magic. Unfortunately for Denver, the Patriots are the antithesis of low-scoring. New England hasn't tallied less than 27 points in any game since Week 10. Denver has surpassed that mark only twice in the same period. Despite his comebacks, Tebow has a tendency to panic when his team gets down big early, which is why 11 of his 12 turnovers have come when the Broncos are behind. The Patriots showed in their final three games that, even if their opponent gets an early lead, Tom Brady will rack up his points before the day is done. I expect this week to be no different.
Pick - Patriots
ATS - Patriots (-13.5)
Texans at Ravens - Baltimore is 10-0 in games when it rushes for over 100 yards. Houston wants to ride Arian Foster to avoid putting the game in T.J. Yates' hands. Yet since Baltimore and Houston have the second and third best rushing defenses in the league, it will be tough for either team to establish the run. In a low-scoring affair, I'd rather go with the quarterback who is less likely to put his team in a bad position, and Yates has protected the football more than Joe Flacco has this season. As he did last week, a healthy Andre Johnson will spread the defense just enough to help the Texans pull out the win.
Pick -Texans
ATS - Texans (+7.5)
Giants at Packers - I'm taking the Giants in this game, because they've improved much more than the Packers since the last time these teams played. With Michael Boley, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck now healthy, the Giants will be able to limit Jermichael Finley and put more pressure on Aaron Rodgers than they did in Week 13. Left tackle Chad Clifton will be back, but he is way past his prime and may hurt the Packers more than he helps them. Mario Manningham also did not play against Green Bay, and his deep routes will help New York exploit a defense that has given up an average of 485 yards over the last three games. The Giants defense, on the other hand, has given up only 292 yards per game since Week 16.
The wild card here is Aaron Rodgers. He has had as good a season as I've ever seen any quarterback have, and he's capable of winning this game on his own. But I think Rodgers will have more trouble with the rejuvenated Giants defense than Eli Manning will have with a Packers secondary that has shown no sign of improvement all season.
Pick - Giants
ATS - Giants (+7.5)
Odds courtesy of USA Today.
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