Resting Starters: Does Momentum Trump Health in the NFL Playoffs?

Should Aaron Rodgers have risked his health to play the Lions in Week 17? Common sense says no, but history says differently.

At 15-1, the Green Bay Packers were the class of the 2011 NFL season.  Yet in their loss to the Giants on Sunday, fans couldn't help but think that Green Bay looked flat.  While recapping New York's victory with my friend Ike, he dropped the "M" word.  Momentum.  Did the bye, meant to reward the best teams in the league, instead hurt the Packers by knocking them off their groove?  Aaron Rodgers quickly dismissed questions that he was rusty after not attempting a pass since Christmas night, but he sure missed some throws against the Giants that he usually makes.  Are coaches foolish to rest their starters at the end of the season?  Does momentum matter so much that they should risk injury in a meaningless game to keep their team sharp?

I decided to look back at every team with a bye since the playoffs expanded in 1990 and note the fates of those who decided to take their foot off the gas before the playoffs, either by benching their quarterback in Week 17 or pulling him at halftime in a game that they eventually lost.  In both scenarios, the head coach's actions would supposedly sap the momentum away from his team.  After playing to win all season, he was essentially telling his team that it was OK to lose.  

My findings surprised me.  Believe it or not, bye teams that decide to play it safe at the end of the season do comparatively worse than other bye teams.  Since 1990, home teams have a .727 winning percentage in the Divisional Round.  But for teams that bench their quarterback or sit them in a loss to end the season, that success rate drops to .613.  

If you just look at recent NFL history, the numbers are even more discouraging.  Since 2005, teams with a bye are a mere 15-13 in the Divisional Round.  Despite the extra rest, they're nearly as likely to lose at home as they are to win.  As for those teams that take it easy in Week 17 and then get a week off?  Of the 12 teams that have followed this plan in the past seven seasons, only four have won their first playoff game.  That's right, FOUR.

Let's take a closer look at some of those teams:

No team is known more for throttling it down before the playoffs than the Indianapolis Colts.  Three times since 2005, they've handled Peyton Manning with kid gloves going into the playoffs when they had a bye to rest.  Two of those times, they were upset at home in their first playoff game.

Wade Phillips' Cowboys took full liberties with their home field advantage in 2007.  Tony Romo played just over a half in a blowout loss to the Redskins before taking his famed trip to Los Cabos with Jessica Simpson during his bye week.  While he relaxed under the sun, the Giants battled the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay.  A week later, it was New York that was celebrating in Texas Stadium.

However, the Giants were on the other end of the momentum stick the next year.  Tom Coughlin's 2008 team dominated the regular season, but he then pulled Eli Manning at halftime of a close game against the Vikings in the final week. Minnesota won that game on a last-second field goal, and two weeks later Manning and his teammates suffered an uninspiring divisional round loss to the Eagles.

Clearly there are exceptions to the rule, like the 2009 Colts and Saints, who rested their starters in Week 17 and both made the Super Bowl.  But history shows that those examples are not the norm.

Does this mean that head coaches will smarten up and keep their foot on the gas all the way to the playoffs?  Probably not.  In a high stakes profession where one bad decision can cost them their job, coaches have an incentive to play it safe.  No one wants to endure the fate of Bill Belichick in 2009, when he decided to play Wes Welker in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Texans.  Welker tore his ACL, and the Patriots offense was lost without him in a humiliating home defeat to the Ravens in the Wild Card Round.  It's easier for Mike McCarthy to stand behind a podium and applaud the Giants' defense for a great effort, than to explain to beat writers why Aaron Rodgers tore his ACL in a Week 17 game that didn't mean anything.

Next year, there will be a team that locks up a playoff bye before its final game.  Then, the coach will sit his quarterback for the final game and fans will accept it.  Call the decision safe.  Call it smart.  Just don't call it a no-brainer.  In the NFL, no game is meaningless.

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Have a suggestion for an article?  Email me at eternalsunshinepete@gmail.com.

Image found here.