Three Big Playoff Questions, and My NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

Do you really expect Tebow Time to fade quietly into the night?

As we enter the playoffs, there are three questions on my mind that the next 11 games will answer:

1)  In a year with record passing numbers, does defense still win championships?  The Steelers, Texans, Ravens, 49ers and Bengals are among the top 10 teams in yards allowed, but the Packers, Patriots, Giants, Saints and Lions are in the bottom 10.  In a copycat league, a Pittsburgh-San Francisco Super Bowl would lead GMs to reinvest in their defense this offseason.  If the Packers and Patriots make it to Indianapolis, the league will shift even further towards the passing game.

2) Are we in the midst of a conference power shift?  History shows us that when one NFL conference pulls ahead of the other, it does so convincingly.  After the Packers won the first two Super Bowls, the AFL/AFC won 11 out of the next 13 championships.  Then, the NFC won 15 of the next 16 Lombardi Trophies.  The AFC won nine out of the next 11, until the NFC took three out of the last four Super Bowls.  Five of the seven best remaining quarterbacks are on the NFC side, and I'd take any NFC playoff team over the Texans, Bengals, or Broncos.

3) Will regular season success once again be trumped by a team that gets hot?  Five of the last six Super Bowls featured one team that had played on wild card weekend.  Four of those teams won the game.  The '05 Steelers, '07 Giants and last year's Packers won it all despite losing their division.  I think the Saints, Steelers, Falcons, Giants and Lions are all capable of making a run this year.

Last week: 9-7; 6-9-1 Against the Spread

Season: 162-94; 122-124-10 ATS

Bengals at Texans - Neither of these two teams is bringing any momentum into this game.  The Bengals are 0-7 against playoff teams this season, and the Texans haven't won since T.J. Yates threw a last-second touchdown to beat Cincinnati four weeks ago.  

Wade Phillips' defense can get to Andy Dalton from all angles, as five of their front seven players have over 20 quarterback pressures this season.  With 3.9 yards per carry, Cincinnati's run game hasn't protected Dalton as much as they'd like to.  Former Bengal Johnathan Joseph can limit A.J. Green.

Having Andre Johnson will give the Texans a huge advantage that they did not have the last time they played the Bengals.  Cincinnati sacked Yates five times in that game, but three of those were from blitzing cornerbacks and safeties.  With a healthy Johnson in the game, the Bengals will have to rely on their front seven to bring pressure.  I trust the Texans offensive line to contain Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins up front.

Pick - Texans

ATS - Texans (-3)

Lions at Saints - The Saints haven't been favored by double-digits in a playoff game since...last year, when they lost to the 7-9 Seahawks.  The NFL gave the Saints a huge advantage by scheduling this game in primetime, because the New Orleans crowd is about much louder (read: drunker) for night games.

The Saints are known for their passing, but they've rushed for over 100 yards in six straight games.  Stephen Tulloch can stay with Darren Sproles better than most linebackers, and Louis Delmas will give the Lions a safety net that they didn't have the last time they were in New Orleans.  However, none of that will matter if Detroit's front four can't get to Drew Brees.

It surprises me how few people are giving the Lions a chance in this game.  Detroit has racked up at least 28 points and 400 yards in each of their last three games.  Their defense has given up over 400 yards in a game six times this season, but so has New Orleans'.  Much like the Saints' Week One game at Lambeau Field, this shootout could be decided by a costly turnover and a timely special teams play.  I give the Saints the slight edge there.

Pick - Saints

ATS - Lions (+10.5)

Falcons at Giants - Six weeks ago, after the Saints blew the Giants out of the Superdome on Monday Night Football, I reminded you that New York looked just as hopeless at a similar point of the 2007 season.  I don't like to draw comparisons between two teams that are four years apart, but don't discount this year's Giants because of their 23-10 home loss to the Redskins in Week 15.  In Week 15, New York also lost at home, also against the Redskins, with a final score of 22-10.

Brent Grimes has been one of the best cornerbacks in the league this season, but I expect the Giants to rotate Mario Manningham to his side of the field to give more advantageous matchups to Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz.  The Giants' offensive line has struggled in pass protection all season, but the Falcons don't have any elite pass rushers outside of John Abraham.

The last two games are a small sample size, but it seems like the Giant defense is finally coming together.  The tight coverage of the secondary against the Jets and Cowboys has gone largely unnoticed, but the front four would not have had time to get to Mark Sanchez and Tony Romo without it.  Linebacker Michael Boley has had solid coverage on tight ends when healthy, which is good news considering the year that Tony Gonzalez has had.  It's entirely possible that Matt Ryan's no huddle offense gashes the Giants defense, like so many teams did for the first 15 weeks of the season.  But I think New York's pass rush will keep the heat on for at least one more week.

Pick - Giants

ATS - Giants (-3)

Steelers at Broncos - If this game were played five weeks ago, I'd have no problem taking Pittsburgh in a blowout.  But the Steelers have scored 23 points in the 10 quarters that Ben Roethlisberger has played since suffering his ankle injury.  

Fortunately for Pittsburgh, they could muster less than 10 points and still beat Denver.  It seems that teams have caught up to the read-option Tim Tebow offense, just like they eventually deciphered Miami's wildcat three years ago.  Still, the Broncos are catching the Steelers at the best time possible.  Maurkice Pouncey is highly overrated, but his absence will hurt a Pittsburgh offensive line that is perpetually in flux.  Throw in Ryan Clark's sickle cell trait and the loss of Rashard Mendenhall, and the Steelers are literally limping into this game.

If the Broncos are down by a score late in this game, we will see a crossroads in Tebow's career.  Lead Denver to a playoff victory, and he will be the unquestioned starting quarterback entering next season.  Come up short with another set of horrific stats, and John Elway will start scouting quarterbacks to draft in April.  Given what's happened in Denver this season, it would only be fitting to see Tebow pull it off.

Pick - Broncos

ATS - Broncos (+8)

Want to talk football?  Follow me on Twitter at @BostonGiant.

Have a suggestion for an article?  Email me at eternalsunshinepete@gmail.com.

Odds courtesy of USA Today.
Image found here.